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Old 08-14-2016, 03:40 AM   #21
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When the article opened misrepresenting the original SWR methodology, I didn't read any further. Bengen did not write "4% per year" or "blindly withdrawing."
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Well, in the good old days, you could withdraw 4% per year from your nest egg and it would last 30 years. Or at least that’s what financial planner Bill Bengen so famously wrote some 22 years ago. But now, in a world where interest rates float around zero and where investment returns are likely to be low for some time to come, blindly withdrawing 4% per year would be a disaster for your nest egg, and ultimately your standard of living.
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:23 AM   #22
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most of these journalists do not even realize how bad the math has to be for 4% to fail .

1965/1966 were pretty awful numbers wise over the first 15 year critical period .

to duplicate that horror show really takes a lot to go wrong and it has to happen in the first 15 years .
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:11 AM   #23
Recycles dryer sheets
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
Attached is the spreadsheet in case anyone wants to play with it, changing
the factor or the growth numbers.

Many thanks to target2019 for the formulas.
Very nice! I changed it to have varying age/# so could adjust for early vs later (as some people noted, it seemed low in the out years).
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:22 AM   #24
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Very nice! I changed it to have varying age/# so could adjust for early vs later (as some people noted, it seemed low in the out years).
Am I missing something here? Did someone upload an actual SS or just the screenshot(s)? Then the others typed the entries from the pic into a SS?
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:38 AM   #25
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Varying Factors.
Attached Files
File Type: xls AgeMinus20_withdrawal_with_avg_growth-2.xls (29.5 KB, 12 views)
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:51 AM   #26
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Attached is the spreadsheet in case anyone wants to play with it, changing
the factor or the growth numbers.

Many thanks to target2019 for the formulas.
Thanks for your modifications.

Last evening I came across an older xls spreadsheet that was created by Peter Ponzo, aka Gummy. His ss randomizes returns for 40 years, and you can modify several inputs.

He also added some modifications that I requested at the time, to account for additional factors. This included continuing to invest new money for a given number of years.

You can alter many more factors than with a straight line prediction of the future. I can't vouch for the correctness or appropriateness of this spread sheet for anyone's situation. It does contain and use his macros. I have saved it as a .xlsm file. Unfortunately, that can't be uploaded here. It is available through my gdrive, here is the link. It has been scanned with Malwarebytes and Mcafee.

Download the file and check with your antivirus to be safe. If/when you open it with Excel, if you get macro warning and don't want to proceed, then by all means, stop there.
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:52 AM   #27
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Varying Factors.
thanks.......
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Old 08-14-2016, 07:19 AM   #28
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Varying Factors.
Nice portrayal of tweaking the age-x factor.
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