We are a couple of 63-year-olds who retired nearly three years ago, and took SS at age 62. I have always felt that financial decisions made in the ten years between when we retired and age 70.5, when we cede withdrawal control to MRDs, could be significant for the rest of our lives. In particular, the decisions of account withdrawal sequencing, Roth conversion, and SS repay/restart seemed most important. But what decision is “best?”
This post describes what we did to figure it out for our situation. Have any of you done something similar? Did you come to similar conclusions?
OUR PORTFOLIO
We have a 60/40 portfolio comprised of about 85% IRA, 15% taxable, and 5% Roth. Our living expenses require a withdrawal rate of about 3.2%. We are well within the 15% FIT bracket. Our current WD approach has been:
ANALYSIS
I build a spreadsheet model to see how different scenarios would play out over the next 40 years, accounting for inflation and taxes.
Evaluation criteria
Scenarios - Five were chosen. They are variations of our current approach:
The charts show that for our specific situation, scenario 5 is always better than our current approach. It is also the best scenario of all for Mid and High economic conditions. Only in Low economic conditions does SS repay/restart become best, but that takes until age 87 to happen.
We will change our approach to scenario 5.
This post describes what we did to figure it out for our situation. Have any of you done something similar? Did you come to similar conclusions?
OUR PORTFOLIO
We have a 60/40 portfolio comprised of about 85% IRA, 15% taxable, and 5% Roth. Our living expenses require a withdrawal rate of about 3.2%. We are well within the 15% FIT bracket. Our current WD approach has been:
- Living expenses from IRA
- Taxes and extraordinary expenses from taxable account (for as long as it survives, then switch to Roth)
- Convert IRA to Roth up to the top of the 15% bracket for as long as we can
ANALYSIS
I build a spreadsheet model to see how different scenarios would play out over the next 40 years, accounting for inflation and taxes.
Evaluation criteria
- Total portfolio value over time (most important)
- Maximum Roth account value
- Minimum excess RMDs (i.e., minimum required WDs over what we needed)
- Minimum incursion into 25% bracket over the years
Scenarios - Five were chosen. They are variations of our current approach:
- Continue as is
- Abandon Roth conversion – just stay low in 15% bracket until age 70.5
- Repay SS, restart at 66 and Roth convert to top of 15% bracket
- Repay SS, restart at 70 and Roth convert to top of 15% bracket
- WD expenses from taxable, Roth-convert to top of 15% bracket
- Cash flow (SSI, pension, taxes, spending)
- Conversions, withdrawals, RMDs
- Tax brackets, deductions, exemptions
- Account values (taxable, IRA, Roth, total)
- Mid – 7% return, 3% inflation
- Low – 6% return, 4% inflation
- High – 8% return, 2% inflation
The charts show that for our specific situation, scenario 5 is always better than our current approach. It is also the best scenario of all for Mid and High economic conditions. Only in Low economic conditions does SS repay/restart become best, but that takes until age 87 to happen.
We will change our approach to scenario 5.