Coming Generational Storm - Free Book

[ats5g]

Thanks to Bob K over at M* for the link. It's a free PDF copy of:

The coming general storm from Scott Burns and Larry K.

- Alec

 

[newyorklady]

thanks. reading it now.

 

[Marshac]

If you would like to watch a lecture by one of the authors, it can be found here-

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/202/

Have some zoloft, prozac, or vodka handy.

 

[newyorklady]

cant find rydux that he talks about. what mutual funds short the long term bond market?

 

[Olav23]

cant find rydux that he talks about. what mutual funds short the long term bond market?

I haven't seen the lecture/read the ebook yet, but my guess is you are looking for:

Inverse Government Long Bond
Seeks to provide investment returns that inversely correlate to the daily performance of the current Long Treasury Bond.
Class Symbol
A RYAQX
Advisor RYJAX
C RYJCX
Investor RYJUX

 

[newyorklady]

thanks so much. you are the best.

 

[wildcat]

I have read it. Not bad. Again, my summary is - the US is screwed and Burns recommends the 10 block portfolio now as a result.

 

[chinaco]

I think it is Rydex funds

 

[newyorklady]

I have read it. Not bad. Again, my summary is - the US is screwed and Burns recommends the 10 block portfolio now as a result.

what is the 10 block portfolio. or direct me to where i can find out please.

 

[wildcat]

Same guy from your play money topic:

http://assetbuilder.com/

He has several portfolio but the 10 block was the one presented in the book and I believe it is his most recent.

 

[newyorklady]

ok thanks. so let me see if i get this right... –Block 10: International value stocks, such as iShares International Value ETF. now, question... is his book dated now (other than general investing advice)?

 

[newyorklady]

I haven't seen the lecture/read the ebook yet, but my guess is you are looking for:

Inverse Government Long Bond
Seeks to provide investment returns that inversely correlate to the daily performance of the current Long Treasury Bond.
Class Symbol
A RYAQX
Advisor RYJAX
C RYJCX
Investor RYJUX

so i am retarded, i know, but what is the difference between these four. looked them up on etrade and they seem similar. what is your opnion of them? as someone who is worried about inflation even before reading this generational storm book is this a good way to go? how do i research this further. any advice is much appreciated

 

[wildcat]

I am not going to wade through the PDF file but I don't recall that being one of his suggestions in the book.

Added: I believe he recommends TIPs and I Bonds for the book's predicted inflation spikes & the short side ETFs/mutual funds charge incredibly high fees which IMHO defeats the gain.

Holy sh!t:
Expense RYAQX Category
Avg
Total Expense Ratio: 4.91% 2.15%
Max 12b1 Fee: 0.25% N/A
Max Front End Sales Load: 4.75% 4.69%
Max Deferred Sales Load: 0.00% 1.25%
3 Yr Expense Projection*: $1,946 $798
5 Yr Expense Projection*: $2,923 $1,324
10 Yr Expense Projection*: $5,351 $2,695

 

[lswswein]

so i am retarded, i know, but what is the difference between these four. looked them up on etrade and they seem similar. what is your opnion of them? as someone who is worried about inflation even before reading this generational storm book is this a good way to go? how do i research this further. any advice is much appreciated

They are all different class funds of the same thing. Somne of them have front end load, others have backend etc. You can check the Expense ratios by looking at them at yahoo finance. Shows the ER on the bottom right. They all have ER's above 4% - I personally wouldn't buy anything with an ER more than 2% ever! Too big of an hurdle for the manager to get over.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=RYJAX

-h
p.s: My total portfolio has an ER of 0.35%

 

[newyorklady]

thanks lswswein that is very helpful. much appreciated.

 

[FinanceDude]

All I can say is wow...............

Maybe we should fire the whole Congress, and start over.............

 

[ziggy29]

Methinks this is something AARP didn't want people to see.

 

[Gumby]

I recall reading a book called something like "The Coming Retirement Crisis" back about 1995 that said essentially the same thing. It is one of the things that got me started in seriously thinking about and investing for retirement.

 

[donheff]

The long term fiscal outlook has made me a long-term bear. I figure the baby boom will start retiring in earnest in about 5 years but the bulk of them won't come on until later. In the meantime boomers need to keep piling into their 401ks. So I keep my fingers crossed and hope to get through the decade with a positive market. But eventually the chickens come home to roost. So at some point if I continue to believe what I think I will have to switch to a bear portfolio. Or, if the rates are good, join C-T with an inflation protected SPIA

 

[Bikerdude]

We can only hope that the economy grows at a better rate than projected and that many "boomers" continue to work and pay taxes. That said, Congress will make cuts. Bush is already talking about taxing our medical benefits as income. This is just the beginning. Medicare is the BIG problem as the book points out.

 

[chinaco]

They will solve the problem by progressive tax on Social Security. They will not reduce it directly or cut it, rather they will tax you more heavily if you have additional income resources over a certain amount. It stinks...

 

[MasterBlaster]

They will solve the problem by progressive tax on Social Security. They will not reduce it directly or cut it, rather they will tax you more heavily if you have additional income resources over a certain amount. It stinks...

If you look at the book you'll see that what you have proposed is not nearly enough to solve the problem.

The solution will be some combination of taxes, Medicare and Medicaid cuts, SS cuts, caps, and age restrictions.

- Stay tuned

 

[gindie]

I remember hearing from one member of the recent President-appointed SS committee that the Social Security problem can be totally solved by simply starting to use the CPI as the the inflation index instead of the currently-used wage rate increase.

If it's that simple,why isn't more consideration being give to that?

 

[MasterBlaster]

I remember hearing from one member of the recent President-appointed SS committee that the Social Security problem can be totally solved by simply starting to use the CPI as the the inflation index instead of the currently-used wage rate increase.

If it's that simple,why isn't more consideration being give to that?

Gindie:

People have discussed that idea. When you take SS by itself the CPI index could be used to correct the SS imbalance. This approach is attractive in that the pain is spread out over long periods of time. The problem is that SS is supposed to replace some portion of your "wages". So if wages are growing over the years and the SS payment is not (grows only with the CPI) then really what you propose amounts to a cut in SS benefits. If things like housing and medical care are roughly tied to available wages then real pain will be felt over the long term by tieing SS benefits to the CPI.

The bigger issue is that SS, Medicare, and Medicaid are, taken together, unsustainable at their present levels for the retirement of the boomers and for those that follow them. The increased amount of money required is so large that increased taxes alone will not solve the problem. Therefore along with tax increases you can expect cuts in SS, Medicare and Medicaid in the next decade or two. Increased taxes and cuts in entitlements are inevitable.

 

[ScaredtoQuit]

Whatever happens, we will adapt. Man always does. In the future, I see:

Boomers will be forced to work longer. Some will never, ever be able to retire. This will alleviate some of the pressure on the system as their earnings are continued to be taxed. At least in the medium term, I am hoping that this factor will save the bacon of folks like us.

Dormitory style living for seniors who can't afford to live on their own - It worked in college, didn't it?

Limitations on healthcare expenditures - Some outrageous percentage (don't recall exactly how much but maybe as much as 75%) of healthcare costs are spent during the last six months of life. As unpleasant as it is to ponder, I forsee a day when we will make economic decisions not to spend additional $$ on people just because they have reached a certain age.

And of course tax increases and benefit cuts...