Correction Imminent?

Nothing goes up forever. There will always be a pullback, but the question is how big is the correction, whether it is temporary and how long with the pullback last before its starts the next leg up. A bull market climbs on the wall of worry. You always should have diversification in your investment. And do you listen to Bogle?
 
I predict that the markets will go down in February and will oscillate wildly until the US gets its debt ceiling sorted out, and then there will be a bull market.

But what do I know? Your educated guess is as good as mine. But I hope I'm right.
 
It interests me to see this thread. Ordinarily investors get turned on by rising prices. We have had essentially 4 years of rising prices. Why the bearishness? I don't have an opinion, but I wonder why apparently many others do.

Ha
 
haha said:
It interests me to see this thread. Ordinarily investors get turned on by rising prices. We have had essentially 4 years of rising prices. Why the bearishness? I don't have an opinion, but I wonder why apparently many others do.

Ha
Click to expand...

Because we're a bunch of pessimistic, skeptical, risk averse, analytic, OCD navel gazers, that's why!

:LOL:
 
What a tragedy!

If the market stayed at the level before W2R rung the bell, I would have had a nice daily gain. As it is now, I am staring at a loss of $77. Was quite a bit worse earlier, but the market recovered some.

Dow was still up, but S&P closed flat, and my diversified portfolio tracked the S&P more closely than the Dow.
 
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NW-Bound said:
What a tragedy!

If the market stayed at the level before W2R rung the bell, I would have had a nice daily gain. As it is now, I am staring at a loss of $77. Was quite a bit worse earlier, but the market recovered some.

Dow was still up, but S&P closed flat, and my diversified portfolio tracked the S&P more closely than the Dow.
Click to expand...

If you think THIS was bad, just wait.... >:D>:D>:D

Evil Laugh Sound Effect - Novaction SoundFX © 2013 - YouTube

As for me, today was another all time high. It's a little unnerving.
 
rembrandt said:
The stock market has been going straight up lately. Does anybody think a correction is imminent, and when a good entry point would be? Thanks. :hide:
Click to expand...

I'm LOL! because I don't think your definition of "straight up" or perhaps your definition of "lately" are the same as mine. That probably means you define "correction" and "imminent" differently as well.

I have all my money riding on "LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter" and I follow that strictly without any deviation.
 
NW-Bound said:
What a tragedy!

If the market stayed at the level before W2R rung the bell, I would have had a nice daily gain. As it is now, I am staring at a loss of $77. Was quite a bit worse earlier, but the market recovered some.

Dow was still up, but S&P closed flat, and my diversified portfolio tracked the S&P more closely than the Dow.
Click to expand...

Up about $2K. I guess most of my actively managed funds were honest when they said they buy value stocks. The only actively managed fund in my portfolio that was down today was Contra which owns a chunk of Apple stock.
 
The Dow 30 components tend to be dividend-paying stodgy companies and the opposite of the Nasdaq with growth stocks. The S&P is somewhere in the middle.

My portfolio does not really mirror the S&P, as it has higher concentrations of natural resource and industrial companies, in addition to many international stocks. Yet, on some days, it tracks the S&P reasonably close. I always find it interesting to watch from day to day.

PS. By the way, W2R has shown herself to be an evil sadist, despite the nice looking avatars that she used. :nonono:
 
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It has been a good run. I reallocated a week ago to more bonds and felt ok about until I read the "get crushed in bonds" thread.
 
NW-Bound said:
PS. By the way, W2R has shown herself to be an evil sadist, despite the nice looking avatars that she used. :nonono:
Click to expand...

Who, me? :angel:

Here's an avatar that I used once, briefly. I admit, I was in a bit of a mood at the time.

6978-albums71-picture539.jpg
 
AAPL went down 12.4% today. It is about 10% of Nasdaq, and more than 3% of S&P.

The Nasdaq went down 0.74%, and the S&P was exactly flat. If we take AAPL out of both indices, then the rest of the market went up. This of course was why the Dow outperformed the other indices, because it does not have AAPL.

Since I am also flat like the S&P, yet having no AAPL, I looked and found that my underperformance was caused by drops in some other sectors (such as steel and mining) that had nothing to do with Apple at all. It was just a coincidence.
 
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fishtherainy said:
Apple lost 12% today, I think I heard 53 billion? How does that play into it!?
Click to expand...

I saw the same headlines.
Statements like this are confusing to me. I don't think $53b vaporized, but instead were moved out of Apple to other investments. Apple has had a good run- and that makes investors nervous. See "Correction Imminent?".
 
Not all of the drop was accounted for by the money movement. Much was truly "lost", but easily "recreated" if people have confidence in Apple again.

It's just like during the housing crisis, where there was very little RE sales activities, yet every home owner is poorer on paper. The value of any asset, even gold, has some ethereal qualities to it. The value of anything is just what people are willing to pay for it. Wealth could be created overnight, and taken away just as easily.
 
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NW-Bound said:
Not all of the drop was accounted for by the money movement. Much was truly "lost", but easily "recreated" if people have confidence in Apple again.

It's just like during the housing crisis, where there was very little RE sales activities, yet every home owner is poorer on paper. The value of any asset, even gold, has some ethereal qualities to it. The value of anything is just what people are willing to pay for it. Wealth could be created overnight, and taken away just as easily.
Click to expand...
Exactly right. It isn't money per se that makes the market go, it's what Lord Keynes referred to as animal spirits.

Ha
 
winger said:
I saw the same headlines.
Statements like this are confusing to me. I don't think $53b vaporized, but instead were moved out of Apple to other investments. Apple has had a good run- and that makes investors nervous. See "Correction Imminent?".
Click to expand...

Well, pretty much yes it did evaporate. The stock market is not a zero sum game. Value (i.e. money) is created or destroyed there every day.

There are 939 million shares of Apple stock in total. No shares were created or destroyed today.

Yesterday at close those shares were worth $514.00 * 939,000,000 = $482,646,000,000.

Today at close those shares were worth $450.50 * 939,000,000 = $423,019,500,000.

The change was -$59,626,500,000 (if my math is right...)

That roughly $60M really did just evaporate.
 
One can argue that the bearish sentiment on Apple might have caused investors to bid up on other stocks, hence creating new wealth elsewhere to compensate for the loss.

In that way, simply by the collective wish of investors, wealth could be "transferred" from one portion of the market to another, without much physical stock selling/buying taking place.

It's magic, just like the mind-boggling quantum tunneling of electrons that have been verified, and even used to build electronic devices.
 
I'm optimistic about the market and think the country is better off now coming out of two long wars. The economy is growing, slowly but heading in the right direction. Technology and innovation are driving new products and productivity. The US stock market is still the best place in the world to grow your money. IMHO anyways.
 
frayne said:
I'm optimistic about the market and think the country is better off now coming out of two long wars. The economy is growing, slowly but heading in the right direction. Technology and innovation are driving new products and productivity. The US stock market is still the best place in the world to grow your money. IMHO anyways.
Click to expand...
I like what you're saying. I think I'll subscribe to your newsletter if you have one :D
 
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