Correction is over

[Maenad]

Which is nice.

 

[Free bird]

Is that you Carl?

 

[W2R]

This thread has a suspicious odor of "Whee" about it. Be careful!

I'm reading through it and wondering what on this green earth I'll see posted next. It seems like mass insanity to me.

But as for me, no, I don't feel an irrepressible urge to "Wh***!!!", at least not today.

 

[Qs Laptop]

2019 will likely be a down year and 2020 will be a down year. Nothing has really changed. The deficit is higher than ever, the debt is higher than ever, and interest rates continue higher.

Hmmm...so like the last 3 years for interest rates and like the last 70 years for debt and deficits.

None of these items are likely to be addressed by the government -

Pretty sure the interest rates will be addressed by the Federal Reserve.

What we do have in place is a 40% drop in the upper corporate tax rate. That's going on 11 months now. Give that a year or two to bake and we will see earnings reports that will drive the market higher. I'm not seeing 3,500 in the S&P500 index in the next two years, though.

 

[Free bird]

Would you believe 3300?

 

[Free bird]

Would you believe 3200 & a 50% tariff on Chinese chop sticks?

 

[Andre1969]

The third year of a presidents term is historically a bonanza for the stock market. My guess is S&P 3500+ is in the cards in the next 12 months. I know set your allocation adjust once a year & fugit about it

Oddly enough, 2011 and 2015 were my worst years since we crawled out of the Great Recession. I lost 0.12% in 2011, so basically a flat year. I saw a 1.6% return in 2015, but once you factor in inflation, I probably lost a bit.


2007, 2003, and 1999 were great years, though. I can't comment any further back than that, as I didn't have enough invested to make much difference.

 

[NW-Bound]

This thread has a suspicious odor of "Whee" about it. Be careful!

I'm reading through it and wondering what on this green earth I'll see posted next. It seems like mass insanity to me.

But as for me, no, I don't feel an irrepressible urge to "Wh***!!!", at least not today.

There are times to be careful, and now is not such time. With headlines all over the Web saying the market can only go up from here, how can we doubt the collective wisdom?

Buy, buy, buy... Buy a lot, and buy early. The more you buy, the more you win.

If one is certain that the S&P will go up, the only logical AA is 100% stock.

Actually, one can do more than 100% by leveraging.

OK, I should elaborate a bit here for people who have not thought about this.

How to have an effective AA of more than 100% stock? This means if the S&P goes up 10%, your stash goes up 20%, 30%, or even higher. More, and more gain for the same principal.

But how does one do it? Easy! I will show you a few simple ways.


1) Buy something that goes up more than the market (the S&P 500)

Just spend a bit of time looking around and you will see many stocks that go up more than the index. Buy these only. You want just the crème de la crème, not the riff-raff.

If you are too lazy to look, you can just buy the NASDAQ index. In the past 24 months, the S&P went up 32%, but the NASDAQ went up 46%. Need I say more? In a bull market, stocks with high P/E go up more than stodgy stocks with reliable earnings. Better yet are companies that don't even make money. These go up the best. Remember the dot-coms.

But, but, but, doesn't the NASDAQ go down more than the S&P if things go bad? Well, it does, but you cannot win with this gloomy attitude. Think positive!


2) Go on margin

Who says that if you have $1, you can only buy $1 of stock? Apply for a margin account at your favorite brokerage, and they let you borrow another $1. Now you can buy $2 worth of stock with that original $1. Twice the stock, twice the gain.

When you apply, they will have to tell you about the danger of "margin call". Ignore it. That peril only exists in a bear market, which is not what we see ahead of us.


3) Buy something even better than stocks: stock options

If a stock goes up 10%, an option can go up 100%, or 1000%. Why fool around with something that goes up as little as 10%? You want the maximum gain possible.

If stocks do not go up the options will be worthless, but again it does not apply here. We already rule out a bear market, remember?



4) Combine all the above methods

This master approach means you borrow money to buy options on the most bullish stocks. Oh là là!

If you are already FIRE'd, you will make so much money, you will turn the entire forum green with envy when you tell them how you blow your endless dough in ways they cannot imagine.

And if you are not yet FIRE'd, this shortcut will get you towards that goal in much less time than the conventional method. How do you like to shorten the time in your current miserable job by 10 years, or even 20 years?

Act now. Beat the crowd, before they drive up the price of the options of the profitless companies that you want. Buy, buy, buy...

 

[Dtail]

Would you believe 3200 & a 50% tariff on Chinese chop sticks?

Ah a "Get Smart" fan. Love it.

 

[RenoJay]

All I know is somebody will be right and others will be wrong.

You're right. Wait, no, wrong. Wait...shoot...I just don't know.

 

[RenoJay]

It's precisely because of the exuberance going on here (and elsewhere) that I've been a net seller this year. I'll likely miss much of this "whoopee" rally, but I believe we're already in bubble territory, and when it pops, it'll be ugly. Best of luck to the bulls. It's nice to have people to sell my stock to.

 

[kitesurfer2]

Gubment is back to blissful gridlock. Paying good money to people to do nothing. But nothing is always better than something if it means that the nothing prevents the something from getting in the way of the nothing. Do I have that right or wm I missing something?

money for nothing, chicks are free...

 

[target2019]

We gon' keep bakin' to the day we get cake
And we don't care what people say

Sing, stack ya money till it gets sky high

Had to limit my quotes there...

 

[Amethyst]

Get thee behind me, !

There are times to be careful, and now is not such time. With headlines all over the Web saying the market can only go up from here, how can we doubt the collective wisdom?

Buy, buy, buy... Buy a lot, and buy early. The more you buy, the more you win.


OK, I should elaborate a bit here for people who have not thought about this.

How to have an effective AA of more than 100% stock? This means if the S&P goes up 10%, your stash goes up 20%, 30%, or even higher. More, and more gain for the same principal.

But how does one do it? Easy! I will show you a few simple ways.


1) Buy something that goes up more than the market (the S&P 500)

Just spend a bit of time looking around and you will see many stocks that go up more than the index. Buy these only. You want just the crème de la crème, not the riff-raff.

If you are too lazy to look, you can just buy the NASDAQ index. In the past 24 months, the S&P went up 32%, but the NASDAQ went up 46%. Need I say more? In a bull market, stocks with high P/E go up more than stodgy stocks with reliable earnings. Better yet are companies that don't even make money. These go up the best. Remember the dot-coms.

But, but, but, doesn't the NASDAQ go down more than the S&P if things go bad? Well, it does, but you cannot win with this gloomy attitude. Think positive!


2) Go on margin

Who says that if you have $1, you can only buy $1 of stock? Apply for a margin account at your favorite brokerage, and they let you borrow another $1. Now you can buy $2 worth of stock with that original $1. Twice the stock, twice the gain.

When you apply, they will have to tell you about the danger of "margin call". Ignore it. That peril only exists in a bear market, which is not what we see ahead of us.


3) Buy something even better than stocks: stock options

If a stock goes up 10%, an option can go up 100%, or 1000%. Why fool around with something that goes up as little as 10%? You want the maximum gain possible.

If stocks do not go up the options will be worthless, but again it does not apply here. We already rule out a bear market, remember?



4) Combine all the above methods

This master approach means you borrow money to buy options on the most bullish stocks. Oh là là!

If you are already FIRE'd, you will make so much money, you will turn the entire forum green with envy when you tell them how you blow your endless dough in ways they cannot imagine.

And if you are not yet FIRE'd, this shortcut will get you towards that goal in much less time than the conventional method. How do you like to shorten the time in your current miserable job by 10 years, or even 20 years?

Act now. Beat the crowd, before they drive up the price of the options of the profitless companies that you want. Buy, buy, buy...

 

[Hopeful]

money for nothing, chicks are free...

Haha...All these years I thought the lyrics were CHECKS are free.

At least I learned something from this thread.

 

[NW-Bound]

Get thee behind me, !

That's the spirit.

We need more people to step up and boldly buy. I have been looking to sell more call options, and let's say the demand has been lukewarm and not as enthusiastic as before. I don't like it. I may not meet my goal of selling $100K worth of option this year. Need another $8K. Time is running out.

 

[joeea]

money for nothing, chicks are free...

I want my, I want my MTV.

 

[GravitySucks]

But how does one do it? Easy! I will show you a few simple ways.


..

5. BuY a leveraged fund eg. TQQQ

 

[HFWR]

I want my, I want my MTV.

EmpTV

 

[NW-Bound]

5. BuY a leveraged fund eg. TQQQ

Yes, that's an easy way that I forgot.

Then, the ultimate method is: 1) borrow money, 2) to buy call options, 3) of a leveraged fund.

The gain that one can get is staggering. The loss one can have is "all of it". But you do not risk losing more than what you put down, compared to buying a house in a state where mortgage companies are allowed to come after you for money owed.

Buy, buy, buy...

 

[Choices]

Hey, NW are you the guy whose life goal is to live in a van under the bridge? Why would I go to you for investment advice— or why wouldn’t I?
I am soooo confused

 

[GravitySucks]

Yes, that's an easy way that I forgot.

Then, the ultimate method is: 1) borrow money, 2) to buy call options, 3) of a leveraged fund.

The gain that one can get is staggering. The loss one can have is "all of it". But you do not risk losing more than what you put down, compared to buying a house in a state where mortgage companies are allowed to come after you for money owed.

Buy, buy, buy...

I might try 2 and 3 for fun!

 

[NW-Bound]

Hey, NW are you the guy whose life goal is to live in a van under the bridge? Why would I go to you for investment advice— or why wouldn’t I?
I am soooo confused

I was not really advising anyone. I was simply pointing out how one can make a lot of money, IF he is certain that the market will go up in the near future.

If you are not sure that the market will go up, then all this leveraging is not for you.

I am never sure of anything, particularly at this moment, so the above is not how I do it.

What I have been doing, I have described elsewhere on this forum but will repeat here: I sell covered call options with strike prices a few percent above current prices, with expiry 1 to 2 months out.

PS. By the way, if you are sure that the market will crash, you can do something similar to the bullish leveraging method but in the opposite direction to make a lot of money too.

 

[Big_Hitter]

is it?

 

[Free bird]

More or less