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Darn! Missed low mortgage rates again!
Old 03-24-2008, 05:55 PM   #1
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Darn! Missed low mortgage rates again!

Warning: this is more venting than anything...I was just getting ready to refinance in late January when rates shot up. So I joined PenFed and have been waiting. Yesterday it looked like the rate was OK (10-year at 5%, 15-year at 5.25%), even though it wasn't as low as it was in January. So I thought I'd bite the bullet and do it today. W*rk got in the way this morning, so when I finally had some time this afternoon, I realized that rates went up 0.25% again.

Oh well I guess I just have to be patient. At least I have been approved by PenFed's computer. (BTW, I signed up for their electronic notify for rate changes but I don't think it's working. Anyone else having better luck?)

As soon as rates hit 5% again, I'll probably pull the trigger. My crystal ball is cloudy, and I don't know where rates are headed...Any thoughts?
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Old 03-24-2008, 06:05 PM   #2
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Nobody knows - my (uninformed, meaningless) prediction is that today's rates are the lowest you'll be seeing them anytime soon.
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Old 03-24-2008, 06:58 PM   #3
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As soon as rates hit 5% again, I'll probably pull the trigger. My crystal ball is cloudy, and I don't know where rates are headed...Any thoughts?
I've been waiting too. They also have a float down service for about .625 which you have to pay upfront and then you can relock once.
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Old 03-24-2008, 10:03 PM   #4
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My DW seems to have a knack for knowing where the bottom is on mortgage rates - we currently have a 4.5% fixed 15 year through a company that keeps over 90% of their loans in-house. She's done it before on re-fi's.

(wish I could get her interested in investments so I'd know when to start buying back into the market)
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Old 03-24-2008, 10:18 PM   #5
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As soon as rates hit 5% again, I'll probably pull the trigger. My crystal ball is cloudy, and I don't know where rates are headed...Any thoughts?
I'd bet that you will have another chance at your 5%.
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Old 03-24-2008, 10:33 PM   #6
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Thanks! I, too, hope I have another chance at 5%. I think my biggest problem is that I'm not good at pulling the trigger on short notice. I like to sit on things and think about them. That's why I can never go gambling. It just stresses me out!
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Old 03-25-2008, 12:09 PM   #7
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DW and I are about to put an offer down on a house or refinance, and we have been watching rates very closely as well.

In getting the pre-approval letter yesterday I spoke to our mortgage consultant at PenFed and he mentioned that one of the reasons their rates are bouncing back and forth so much right now is demand is moving more quickly than usually seen with each rate adjustment, and they can only process so much. When they moved to the 15yr to 5% last week it produced an immediate spike that they're still trying to work thru, and therefore have raised rates in the interim.

Obviously, he reiterated, there's no telling where rates will go, but they do continue to monitor competitive rates on a daily basis and usually are ahead of the pack. Over the past week they have still been better than most other institutions that have seen similar demand increases.
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Old 03-25-2008, 12:13 PM   #8
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Banks which didn't get slimed with too much subprime and other foundering mortgage obligations are going to be making money hand over fist. The amount of money they are paying out to borrow money is approaching zero, and the amount they charge to loan that money out is holding firm, and in some cases even rising.

This is one hole in the Fed's plan. Unless the falling rates banks pay are passed to consumers, all they are doing is allowing the banks to fatten their wallets at the expense of savers.
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Old 03-25-2008, 07:58 PM   #9
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If the fed funds rate stays low, I would assume the situation might improve by an .125 here or .25 there.

I am looking for 30 year fixed rates to fall below 5% (I am at 5.75% now).
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Old 03-25-2008, 10:18 PM   #10
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If the fed funds rate stays low, I would assume the situation might improve by an .125 here or .25 there.

I am looking for 30 year fixed rates to fall below 5% (I am at 5.75% now).
I guess Im too lazy to re-read the entire thread (and the other one), but I dont ever recall the 30 yr that low....15 yes/30 no unless you are okay with 2 or more pts.
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Old 03-29-2008, 04:10 PM   #11
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Is there any way to predict when mortgage rates are going to come down again? Fed lowered rates, but mortgages have not moves all that much.
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Old 03-29-2008, 04:27 PM   #12
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Banks are not about to lower the rates they charge, only the rates they pay us.

It's about the spread.
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Old 03-30-2008, 08:50 AM   #13
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Mortgage rates have really been disconnected from the lower Fed rates due to fear and the credit crisis. As a result, if the credit crisis starts to cool down I think that mortgage rates will go down.

The 15 year has been behaving OK. However, the 30 year has been much higher than you would expect with fed policy.

Therefore, I think you'll get another bite at the apple if you're patient. I certainly am planning that way.

Cheers
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Old 03-30-2008, 08:53 AM   #14
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Mortgage rates have really been disconnected from the lower Fed rates due to fear and the credit crisis. As a result, if the credit crisis starts to cool down I think that mortgage rates will go down.

The 15 year has been behaving OK. However, the 30 year has been much higher than you would expect with fed policy.

Therefore, I think you'll get another bite at the apple if you're patient. I certainly am planning that way.

Cheers
I agree. The risk in that scenario is that treasury yields rise enough to offset spreads on mortgages narrowing. I think ythis is a possibility considering how much treasuries have been ridiculously bid up by the flight to quality. Tme will tell.
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Old 04-08-2008, 01:22 PM   #15
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Here is some good reading and a nice chart on the spread.

Why Mortgage Rates Aren't Lower - US News and World Report
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Old 04-09-2008, 02:05 AM   #16
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Here is some good reading and a nice chart on the spread.

Why Mortgage Rates Aren't Lower - US News and World Report
Good, easy explanation in plain English. Thanks!
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