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Dow 30k 2018
Old 01-01-2018, 07:58 PM   #1
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Dow 30k 2018

As fiscal stimulus gains traction & the fed normalizes rates we keep rolling.
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Old 01-01-2018, 08:39 PM   #2
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That's only 20%. I'm disappointed.
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Old 01-01-2018, 08:39 PM   #3
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It's certainly possible we hit 30K at some point in 2018 but I don't think we end the year at 30K+.
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Old 01-01-2018, 08:57 PM   #4
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Maybe end the year at 35K ?
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Old 01-01-2018, 09:01 PM   #5
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Now you're talking.
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Old 01-01-2018, 09:10 PM   #6
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No, the Dow will crash. Same with Nasdaq, S&P500, emerging market, developed markets, what have you.

People will sell them all to raise money to buy bitcoin and its cohorts.
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Old 01-01-2018, 09:10 PM   #7
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Probably actually dreaming, I am scared somehow Bitcoin is going to wreck things
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Old 01-02-2018, 02:26 AM   #8
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I've been to this party before...

Quote:
Alan Greenspan, 1996: "Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"
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Old 01-02-2018, 05:22 AM   #9
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If it is just positive for the year I will be happy.
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Old 01-02-2018, 05:38 AM   #10
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If it is just positive for the year I will be happy.
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Old 01-02-2018, 05:50 AM   #11
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I've been to this party before...
I know. But Alan Greenspan, clearly prescient, warned during 1996, and the party lasted past 1999, really accelerating during 1999!

All we can do is go a bit more conservative and expect to wait for a while.
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Old 01-02-2018, 08:16 AM   #12
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If it is just positive for the year I will be happy.
+1

My only desire is that we don't start the dreaded sequence of negative returns.
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Old 01-02-2018, 08:22 AM   #13
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We are on a nine year bull run and sometimes the bull gets tired and slows down. I think sustaining the DOW in the 20-30 range is doable but way too many variables to predict. As mentioned above, anything positive will be good.
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Old 01-02-2018, 08:22 AM   #14
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For the context, here are the returns of those years. Greenspan's remark came after the blowout year of 1995. Indeed the party lasted until 1999, actually into the early months of 2000. Three years of pain followed this orgy, and it was debatable whether it might be better if it were not for 9/11.

1991 30.5%
1992 7.6%
1993 10.1%
1994 1.3%

1995 37.6% <----
1996 23.1%
1997 33.4%
1998 28.6%
1999 21.0%

2000 -9.1%
2001 -11.9%
2002 -22.1%

PS. The cumulative loss of 2000-2002 is 37.6%. However, the gain from 1995 through 1999 is 3.52x. And so, from 1995 through 2002, one still gets 2.19x.

It is only the late comers who started investing at the late 90s who got hurt because they got the pain without the enjoyment of the early gains.
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Old 01-02-2018, 09:00 AM   #15
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If the market goes up to 30k, I will start lightening up on equities along the way. I'm already looking at selling one or two rentals, as I don't think current values are sustainable if mortgage interest rates go up much or if unemployment rises significantly.

The rest of you can "party like it's 1999." Whee!!
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Old 01-02-2018, 09:12 AM   #16
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Old 01-02-2018, 09:13 AM   #17
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I know. But Alan Greenspan, clearly prescient, warned during 1996, and the party lasted past 1999, really accelerating during 1999!

All we can do is go a bit more conservative and expect to wait for a while.
+1
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Old 01-02-2018, 03:29 PM   #18
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It is only the late comers who started investing at the late 90s who got hurt because they got the pain without the enjoyment of the early gains.
My sense is we're at that point or close to it ... but I could be wrong.
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Old 01-02-2018, 03:40 PM   #19
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I've been to this party before...
I was at that party too. I can't remember if the weed was good or not back in '96....
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:30 PM   #20
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Money its a hit don't give me that do goody good bull $h*t weed? Did someone say weed?
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