Down Day in the Market !

[mathjak107]

exactly , it is all your money . like working on commission it varies but it is yours to take at any point .whether you choose to or not does not change the value

 

[GravitySucks]

Returned from a month out of town thinking I'd rebalance on Friday.
No need now. Left everything alone. I try not to do anything when CNBC is playing Its The End Of The World (and I feel fine.)

 

[redduck]

Last night, out with friends, I picked up a dinner check for $600 and didn't think twice about the market.

Hi, Uncle marko...

I'm glad you're still able to have a good time at your advanced age. But, I'm concerned that maybe your[-] spendthrift[/-] generous ways might be cutting into my inheritance. Please be careful.
Your most devoted and loving nephew...
redduck

 

[Running_Man]

This thread reminds me of the threads and posts in October of 2007 and the flak I encountered when a member posted that he was already 100% in stocks and wished he had more money to invest after the “correction” of the first few days of October — the stock market had fallen in the summer about 10% and then rose back to the level it had been and began to fall off in October and I merely posted that is how markets top, when everyone who wants to buy has their stock quota. By 2009 most of the confidence had been eroded by the large losses, however the bond component really kept portfolios from disaster. There is an extreme confidence in stocks issued throughout this thread that is interesting to me from a investment indicator view. The anguish of 2009 has been utterly vanquished, though our hero’s at the Federal Reserve still bear the weight of 4.5 Trillion in debt purchased (equal to 60% of all US government debt issued at our optimistic outlook of October 2007) they used to pull us upon their shoulders from the mortgage mania investing malaise, and no dispersal of the burden of that debt appears to be forthcoming.

I am not predicting anything nor changing my investing portfolio any more than I had since last fall, however since 1981 we have lived in one of the truly great investing periods of all times, there have been major declines to be sure but the stock losses were met with new all time highs in every case in a very intermediate investing term with steadily falling interest rates and declining inflation along the way to always cushion a portfolio that was invested in stocks/bonds. If you do not have retirement money it is pretty much indicative as having been unable to save as virtually any investment style with even a very moderate risk profile has seen positive returns to inflation.

With good fortune for us all this will continue for another 37 years, for if there is another downturn, I don’t know if the FED will have a free hand to reach down and purchase 8 trillion of bonds to save us as they did in 2009. If Atlas shrugs it will be a new world and it will no longer be the FED’s problem.

 

[audreyh1]

Dippity doo da, dippity ay, my oh my, what a wonderful day![emoji854]

Too much freedom?

 

[audreyh1]

Well, that's a long time since your average correction, defined as a 10% drop, happens about once a year.

Yeah, but before 2015/2016 it had been 2011 maybe. So that rule hadn’t been working this decade.

 

[audreyh1]

Buying monday (so everyone else should probably wait and watch it go down even more due to my luck!)

DOW futures are down over 700 this morning. It could go away by Monday, but that’s pretty severe.

 

[jim584672]

DOW futures are down over 700 this morning. It could go away by Monday, but that’s pretty severe.

I think that is from Friday afternoon, it is the 665 plus another hundred after market. Sunday night they re-open.

 

[audreyh1]

I think that is from Friday afternoon, it is the 665 plus another hundred after market. Sunday night they re-open.

Right, OK, it was for DOW 25443, and the DOW closed Friday at 25520

 

[NW-Bound]

This thread reminds me of the threads and posts in October of 2007 and the flak I encountered when a member posted that he was already 100% in stocks and wished he had more money to invest after the “correction” of the first few days of October — the stock market had fallen in the summer about 10% and then rose back to the level it had been and began to fall off in October and I merely posted that is how markets top, when everyone who wants to buy has their stock quota. By 2009 most of the confidence had been eroded by the large losses, however the bond component really kept portfolios from disaster. There is an extreme confidence in stocks issued throughout this thread that is interesting to me from a investment indicator view. The anguish of 2009 has been utterly vanquished, though our hero’s at the Federal Reserve still bear the weight of 4.5 Trillion in debt purchased (equal to 60% of all US government debt issued at our optimistic outlook of October 2007) they used to pull us upon their shoulders from the mortgage mania investing malaise, and no dispersal of the burden of that debt appears to be forthcoming.

I am not predicting anything nor changing my investing portfolio any more than I had since last fall, however since 1981 we have lived in one of the truly great investing periods of all times, there have been major declines to be sure but the stock losses were met with new all time highs in every case in a very intermediate investing term with steadily falling interest rates and declining inflation along the way to always cushion a portfolio that was invested in stocks/bonds. If you do not have retirement money it is pretty much indicative as having been unable to save as virtually any investment style with even a very moderate risk profile has seen positive returns to inflation.

With good fortune for us all this will continue for another 37 years, for if there is another downturn, I don’t know if the FED will have a free hand to reach down and purchase 8 trillion of bonds to save us as they did in 2009. If Atlas shrugs it will be a new world and it will no longer be the FED’s problem.

The [-]market[/-] Fed giveth, and the [-]market[/-] Fed taketh away.

Or perhaps it's because too many people blowing the dough, causing inflation to rise?

Ah, there's always early SS if the market turns south. People who are still working can do OMY or TMY. Life goes on.

 

[DAYDREAMER]

After remembering that my excel spreadsheet used 4% average annual growth for yearly projections, we have a long way to go before I need to rethink retirement goals.

 

[Senator]

The talking heads say that today's drop was due to fears of higher interest rates, and perhaps they are right. I have a feeling, though, that the Trump/Nunes/FBI Russia thing is going to send some fairly major tremors through the markets soon as well. Maybe next week, maybe after that, but I think it will happen.

Not trying to start a political discussion here at all.......just an observation/prediction.

How is this NOT a political discussion?

 

[MichaelB]

How is this NOT a political discussion?

You seem to be making it one. Recalling a recent discussion about thread closures, picking up these comments and posting in response, instead of ignoring them, often leads to a thread being taken off topic, leading to Porky.

Why don't we just move on with the thread?

 

[frayne]

My advice for when the DOW takes a 666 point drop, take it as a sign; to keep your powder dry, don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch, a bird in the hand is better than a dog that won't hunt and never pee into the wind. Mixed metaphors aside, just chill, sit back, relax and enjoy the show, it's only life.

 

[Chuckanut]

Wake me up when the market has dipped 20% or more.

If we get a real Bear market, like in '74, I might even consider going back to work for 6 months and investing my pay at the low point. But low, sell high, right?

OK, just kidding about going back to work.

 

[HFWR]

If you added back my 2018 withdrawal, I’d still be slightly ahead ytd.

VTI and VPL both triggered +10% about a week ago, so some serendipitous rebalancing! [emoji41]

Of course, even with the recent moves, my bond funds are not outside their bands yet, and with an almost sure rate increase next month, and possibly 2-3 more this year, I’m hesitant to top off the bonds into a rising rate environment, but I’m not crazy about holding excess cash either.

As for the macro picture, there are many possible wrenches out there to muck up the machinery, and we humans seem quite capable...

 

[audreyh1]

Wake me up when the market has dipped 20% or more.

If we get a real Bear market, like in '74, I might even consider going back to work for 6 months and investing my pay at the low point. But low, sell high, right?

OK, just kidding about going back to work.

LOL - 2008/9 was not a real bear? It was enough for me! Especially coming off the 2000-2002 experience. I’m sure as a 1999 retiree I felt it keenly.

 

[atmsmshr]

Ok - this thread made me peak at the 401k. Up 1.89% YTD. That's still up by a rollicking good time in my book.

Pretending I am Alfred E. Newman - "What, me worry?"

 

[Chuckanut]

LOL - 2008/9 was not a real bear? It was enough for me! Especially coming off the 2000-2002 experience. I’m sure as a 1999 retiree I felt it keenly.

2008/2009 did not come with long gas lines at the service stations . And high inflation.

IIRC, we did not recover from '73-'74 in real terms until 1993. 20 years to get back to where we were. Now that's a BEAR market.

 

[USGrant1962]

Yeah, but before 2015/2016 it had been 2011 maybe. So that rule hadn’t been working this decade.

Here's a good, current visualization of how long it has been since a correction https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf. The coloring choice is pretty bad - bluish purple are corrections greater than 5%, and pinkish purple are bears.

Figure 1 (2008-2018) is pretty, Figure 2 (2000-2009) is ugly.

Nothing but up since January 2016.

 

[audreyh1]

2008/2009 did come with long gas lines at the service stations . And high inflation.

IIRC, we did not recover from '73-'74 in real terms until 1993. 20 years to get back to where we were. Now that's a BEAR market.

It came with big drops in housing prices, plenty of foreclosures, and unemployment exceeding 10%.

 

[audreyh1]

Here's a good, current visualization of how long it has been since a correction https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf. The coloring choice is pretty bad - bluish purple are corrections greater than 5%, and pinkish purple are bears.

Figure 1 (2008-2018) is pretty, Figure 2 (2000-2009) is ugly.

Nothing but up since January 2016.

My point exactly. 2016 may seen like a long time since a correction, but if you compare the 2011 to 2015 period, that was even longer. We got close in 2012, but 2012, 2013, 2014 didn't have them, so that annual 10% correction rule has not held this decade as we've only had four so far: 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Technically a correction is a 10% decline or more as Yardeni notes below the graph.

But you are right in that there haven't even been 5% drops since early 2016.

 

[NW-Bound]

My advice for when the DOW takes a 666 point drop, take it as a sign; to keep your powder dry, don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch, a bird in the hand is better than a dog that won't hunt and never pee into the wind. Mixed metaphors aside, just chill, sit back, relax and enjoy the show, it's only life.

Yes. Lots of cash. Checked. WR of only 2.5%. Checked. SS if needed. Checked.

I do enjoy the show. It's only life, but life is all we've got. And the market gyrations make like more interesting. By the way, even if you do not spend all of it, life with more money feels better than life with less.

Wake me up when the market has dipped 20% or more...

You say that, the same as many posters. But you are all awake, following and reading these threads. Come on!

I am one who likes excitement like this. It shakes things up. And I intend to stay fully awake, like I did in the last two market crashes. I did not follow the market in 1987, and missed out on a lot of "fun".

 

[jim584672]

Now is the time to sell everything and buy some of those 3x ETFs. Keep life interesting! Fatfire or bust.

 

[NW-Bound]

Now is the time to sell everything and buy some of those 3x ETFs. Keep life interesting! Fatfire or bust.

Bull or bear 3x ETF? It makes a big difference.