The period from 1982 to 2000 was a secular bull market
The period from 2000 began a secular bear market.
The up move from 2004 2007 was a bear market rally.
The question is how long will this bear market decline last?
Don't read the attached if you want to be scared.
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 1/18/2008
'Bottom Line: Probability is very high that the bull market top arrived in October 2007 and that we are now in a bear market that will continue for another year or more, possibly until mid-2010.
Until we have evidence to the contrary, remember that bear market rules apply. The next thing to expect is a reaction rally back toward the recently violated neckline support, which is now overhead resistance. "
The neckline 1375 was hit after the article was written
So technically, the market can go lower - but there will be rallies.
Selling now might be at the bottom.
How long can the secular bear market last?
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Secular Bears - February 25, 2008
"Secular bears in the past century include 1901-1917, 1929-1949, and 1964-1982."
So this bear market could last until the 2015 -2021 range - around 2018 is more likely.
PS - Don't think I applied any of this to my investing - I started to average into the markets in May of 2007. I do have about 51% of my money in cash and the rest in stocks funds and bond funds.