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Fear and Hope - Secular bear market
Old 09-29-2008, 03:52 PM   #1
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Fear and Hope - Secular bear market

The period from 1982 to 2000 was a secular bull market
The period from 2000 began a secular bear market.
The up move from 2004 2007 was a bear market rally.
The question is how long will this bear market decline last?

Don't read the attached if you want to be scared.
====
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 1/18/2008
'Bottom Line: Probability is very high that the bull market top arrived in October 2007 and that we are now in a bear market that will continue for another year or more, possibly until mid-2010. Until we have evidence to the contrary, remember that bear market rules apply. The next thing to expect is a reaction rally back toward the recently violated neckline support, which is now overhead resistance. "
====
The neckline 1375 was hit after the article was written
So technically, the market can go lower - but there will be rallies.
Selling now might be at the bottom.
===
How long can the secular bear market last?
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Secular Bears - February 25, 2008
"Secular bears in the past century include 1901-1917, 1929-1949, and 1964-1982."
So this bear market could last until the 2015 -2021 range - around 2018 is more likely.
===
PS - Don't think I applied any of this to my investing - I started to average into the markets in May of 2007. I do have about 51% of my money in cash and the rest in stocks funds and bond funds.
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Old 09-29-2008, 04:10 PM   #2
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I don't know, they may be right but one thing I do know is we had a bad year in the stock market today.
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Old 09-29-2008, 04:19 PM   #3
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mid-2010 is not so far off! (Whistling past the graveyard)

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Old 09-29-2008, 04:59 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
mid-2010 is not so far off! (Whistling past the graveyard)

Audrey
Some talking heads say the third quarter of next year.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:37 PM   #5
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The media is eating this up. As I watch the news tonight they are saying that this COULD be JUST the beginning. OH MY GOD!! We are down 25% or so from our recent highs and this is JUST the beginning. Honey!! quick, sell everything, I think this market is going down 300% this time. We'll not only lose our investments, we are going to die in the street and then Iran, North Korea and Venezuela are going to nuke us!!

Obviously people have lost confidence, but I will still stay the course. Think I'll go grab a pizza and a pint.
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Old 09-29-2008, 06:48 PM   #6
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Fear and hope?

I'm thinking beer and dope...
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Old 09-29-2008, 07:03 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikubak View Post
The media is eating this up. As I watch the news tonight they are saying that this COULD be JUST the beginning. OH MY GOD!! We are down 25% or so from our recent highs and this is JUST the beginning. Honey!! quick, sell everything, I think this market is going down 300% this time. We'll not only lose our investments, we are going to die in the street and then Iran, North Korea and Venezuela are going to nuke us!!
Well, you have to admit S&P500 down 8.8% in one day is pretty spectacular!

Audrey
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Old 09-29-2008, 08:02 PM   #8
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"Don't read the attached if you want to be scared."


So I read it, because I don't like being scared.
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Old 09-29-2008, 09:59 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by riskadverse View Post
"Don't read the attached if you want to be scared."
So I read it, because I don't like being scared.
even this number: 750
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