FIRE effect on SS benefits

[COZICAN]

$211 per month or total for the year?

Per month. 10 of my top 35 years are pretty low numbers. Your SSI statement shows numbers reflecting "at your current earnings rate, if you continue working until..." which would add nine more six figure numbers as opposed to zeros.

 

[joeea]

It was worse than I imagined. I have aprox 25 high income years and the rest are pretty pathetic. If I replaced those low numbers with high numbers for the next nine years my benefits would be as projected by the SSA. But there is no way I'm going to continue working just for SSI benefits.

Then just put the calculators away, go forward with your plans, and stop worrying how much you are leaving on the table. You've already made your decision.

 

[24601NoMore]

$211/month seems high, unless you had some really low earnings years.

The actual calculations use an inflationary multiplier to bring your 'actual' earnings to current-year $$s. So, let's say you made $35K in 1980. That might be something north of $100K equivalent $$s in 2019. For that reason, you can't just look at what appear to be low numbers and assume it will be a big hit..it might be very minor all in all.

When I did a similar calculation, the impact of me ER'ing at 55 vs. having 10 more years of 6-figure plus earnings was very minimal - even though I had lots of years south of $40K - back in the 80s. I think part of it has to do not only with the inflationary number adjustments but also with the 'bend points' where any $s above a certain benefit amount get calculated at a lot lower percentage. So, for high earner people, additional $$s don't impact the net benefit much once you start getting to the higher end of the benefit range..

 

[Al18]

If https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html isn't working, it sounds like Javascript is disabled in your browser. You'll need to turn it on.

 

[Offgrid Organic Farmer]

Social Security needs to 35-year span of earnings, to average for their formula.

If you worked for 40 years, that exceeds the span.

 

[COZICAN]

Social Security needs to 35-year span of earnings, to average for their formula.

If you worked for 40 years, that exceeds the span.

I know that. My point was that when you see your projected benefit online it assumes you will continue making your current income until FRA which is skewing the results if I stop working at 59.5 . It's adding six figure projections for years 60-67. I was just looking for a way to calculate it without those years income. Which I have now.

 

[Offgrid Organic Farmer]

I know that. My point was that when you see your projected benefit online it assumes you will continue making your current income until FRA which is skewing the results if I stop working at 59.5 . It's adding six figure projections for years 60-67. I was just looking for a way to calculate it without those years income. Which I have now.

I get my projected S.S. formula in my email every year.

I retired from the US Navy in 2001, so from 2001 until today there has not been any further contributions to my S.S. policy. The projection for my future SS benefit has not dropped. Even with 17 years of zeros.

 

[RunningBum]

It's not a span either, it's your 35 highest years, whether or not they are contiguous.

 

[Offgrid Organic Farmer]

It's not a span either, it's your 35 highest years, whether or not they are contiguous.

It was explained to me that the 35 years had to be contiguous.

 

[Crabby Mike]

I get my projected S.S. formula in my email every year.

I retired from the US Navy in 2001, so from 2001 until today there has not been any further contributions to my S.S. policy. The projection for my future SS benefit has not dropped. Even with 17 years of zeros.

I would think that once you retire and have a zero year, each year afterward will project zeroes for future years, so the projection wouldn't change except for COLAs.

 

[scrabbler1]

$211/month seems high, unless you had some really low earnings years.

The actual calculations use an inflationary multiplier to bring your 'actual' earnings to current-year $$s. So, let's say you made $35K in 1980. That might be something north of $100K equivalent $$s in 2019. For that reason, you can't just look at what appear to be low numbers and assume it will be a big hit..it might be very minor all in all.

When I did a similar calculation, the impact of me ER'ing at 55 vs. having 10 more years of 6-figure plus earnings was very minimal - even though I had lots of years south of $40K - back in the 80s. I think part of it has to do not only with the inflationary number adjustments but also with the 'bend points' where any $s above a certain benefit amount get calculated at a lot lower percentage. So, for high earner people, additional $$s don't impact the net benefit much once you start getting to the higher end of the benefit range..

The part I bolded is a very good point. I have only 23 years of significant wage earnings when I retired in 2008. I created a spreadsheet which mimics the benefic calculation (and later on, checked it against the ANYPIA program I downloaded). My AIME was right near the bend point where the 15% wage replacement bracket begins. So, had I kept working and replaced some of those zero earnings, those added wages, when averaged over 35 years, would have returned only 15% in the benefit calculation.

My SS benefit has been frozen for the last 10 years, with only small changes in the wage indexing factors moving the projected benefit a few dollars. One of these days, I will update those factors (again) which are easily found in the SSA website.

 

[jimandthom]

https://www.ssa.gov/planners/retire/AnypiaApplet.html

This is the calculator I have used.

Just fill the years out with your earnings and enter zeros wherever. You can change your retirement date etc.

I think it is similar to the downloaded Anypia version, but you have to do the data entry each time you want to play. Hope it is accurate as its the one I have been using while deciding my SS plan.

 

[MissMolly]

It was explained to me that the 35 years had to be contiguous.

No, they do not have to be contiguous. SS says "...35 years in which you earned the most". They say nothing about those 35 years being contiguous, but generally speaking for most folks they are.

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf

 

[joylesshusband]

I would think that once you retire and have a zero year, each year afterward will project zeroes for future years, so the projection wouldn't change except for COLAs.

It takes the SSA 2 years with reported zero income to begin projecting "zero income" assumptions until FRA.
I know this as my wife stopped working in '2011, and it was not until March 2014 that the projected SS benefit got downsized matching a "zero income" assumption.

 

[bada bing]

If https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html isn't working, it sounds like Javascript is disabled in your browser. You'll need to turn it on.

Add me to the votes for socialsecurity.tools. I found it much easier than
anypia to use and the report is generates is much more straightforward. It is
worth figuring out a browser java setting to get it to work. It only takes 10
seconds to copy-paste your earnings record from SSA.gov and generate the
report once it is working.

In particular, the social.security.tools has a couple of nifty interactive graphs
that allow you to slide monthly indexed earnings verses your primary
insurance amount (PIA), which shows where you land verses the bend points
and what effect increasing/decreasing your earnings record has. It also
includes a table that clearly identifies your "top 35" indexed earning years,
and which years will fall off if replaced by higher earning years.

 

[joeea]

It was explained to me that the 35 years had to be contiguous.

Whoever explained it that way was confused.

 

[COZICAN]

It takes the SSA 2 years with reported zero income to begin projecting "zero income" assumptions until FRA.
I know this as my wife stopped working in '2011, and it was not until March 2014 that the projected SS benefit got downsized matching a "zero income" assumption.

Finally, someone understands what I'm talking about

 

[MarieIG]

I also have about ten years of zeros (or near zero). I found the magic web site once. (It is like Brigadoon for me: can very rarely been seen.) In any event, putting in zeros for the current year go forward did reduce the final number, but not as much as I thought that it would; and not enough for me to word to 62, 67 or 70. (I should have written the exact amount down.) The main factor for me as to benefits amount is the age that I take SS.

 

[EvrClrx311]

Interesting...

I never knew about the 35 year part of the calculation. I've paid the max taxable SS for 12 of my 15 years working to date. Assuming I don't take a major pay cut and work another 11 years, that would put me at 23 years maxed on SS (with 3 more partial years).

Social Security isn't a part of my equation for retirement since i'm planning to pull the plug around age 50... but for age 62 planning purposes I should assume I'll be receiving about 2/3 of what the number ssa is telling me because I didn't get close to the 35 years worked? I guess that number they are showing me now is based on their assumption I'll work till 62, at my current taxable income rate...

Do I have the right?

More specifically... are the equations they use linear in drop off? Like in the case I mentioned above where I'll hit the 2/3rd of the 35 years worked... is it safe to assume I'll receive about 33% less in benefit than what they are showing me as an estimate now?

 

[COZICAN]

Interesting...

I never knew about the 35 year part of the calculation. I've paid the max taxable SS for 12 of my 15 years working to date. Assuming I don't take a major pay cut and work another 11 years, that would put me at 23 years maxed on SS (with 3 more partial years).

Social Security isn't a part of my equation for retirement since i'm planning to pull the plug around age 50... but for age 62 planning purposes I should assume I'll be receiving about 2/3 of what the number ssa is telling me because I didn't get close to the 35 years worked? I guess that number they are showing me now is based on their assumption I'll work till 62, at my current taxable income rate...

Do I have the right?

More specifically... are the equations they use linear in drop off? Like in the case I mentioned above where I'll hit the 2/3rd of the 35 years worked... is it safe to assume I'll receive about 33% less in benefit than what they are showing me as an estimate now?

Yes to the first bold part above; the estimated benefit is assuming projected income at current level.

Second bold part: Not really. They will use your 35 highest years even if some of those highest are zeros

 

[gamboolman]

Coz.....when the time comes to pull the plug....I imagine you'll pull the plug.....the GD SS numbers be damed and go to Hell.....at least that's me....

I just passed the magic 59-1/2 recently....and while SS is a integral part of our retirement finances.....i will go when I go and the numbers will be the numbers.....

I hope to go by 1-Jun-20.....But can be anytime from now, just not right now.....

Read a post here afew day ago....""Every year that you continue working you are giving up what is likely the healthiest remaining year in your life. "............struck a GD nerve with me for sure.....

Lifes A Dance And You Learn As You Go.......

gamboolman....

 

[COZICAN]

Coz.....when the time comes to pull the plug....I imagine you'll pull the plug.....the GD SS numbers be damed and go to Hell.....at least that's me....

I just passed the magic 59-1/2 recently....and while SS is a integral part of our retirement finances.....i will go when I go and the numbers will be the numbers.....

I hope to go by 1-Jun-20.....But can be anytime from now, just not right now.....

Read a post here afew day ago....""Every year that you continue working you are giving up what is likely the healthiest remaining year in your life. "............struck a GD nerve with me for sure.....

Lifes A Dance And You Learn As You Go.......

gamboolman....

I agree with you 100% I'm just CDO (like OCD but in alphabetical order as it should be) so my numbers have to be perfect on my spreadsheets. I collect quotes from this board and the one you quoted is on that list. My latest favorite:

the money itself was never The Goal. It was always just a tool to help you reach your True Goal of freedom/security/flexibility/comfort/ wanderlust/etc.

 

[RunningBum]

Social Security isn't a part of my equation for retirement since i'm planning to pull the plug around age 50... but for age 62 planning purposes I should assume I'll be receiving about 2/3 of what the number ssa is telling me because I didn't get close to the 35 years worked? I guess that number they are showing me now is based on their assumption I'll work till 62, at my current taxable income rate...

Do I have the right?

More specifically... are the equations they use linear in drop off? Like in the case I mentioned above where I'll hit the 2/3rd of the 35 years worked... is it safe to assume I'll receive about 33% less in benefit than what they are showing me as an estimate now?

You should use the tools people are referring to in this and/or other current SS threads and input your number, putting in 0's for the years you don't plan to work, and see how they come out. I don't really know if it'll be 2/3 or not, but rather than guess or make an assumption I would actually use the tools SSA gives you, or good tools that others have created.

 

[JOBO]

Ssa estimate

You can use this third party site https://socialsecurity.tools/app.html to easily calculate your SS benefit. Just copy and paste your earnings history from SSA.GOV and select no future earnings.

Does this site automatically perform the calculation as soon as the earnings are pasted in or is there a button to click? It does nothing in CHROME OR IE11 with javascript enabled and no popups blocked. All I can use are the 3 DEMO data sets.

 

[gregable]

Does this site automatically perform the calculation as soon as the earnings are pasted in or is there a button to click? It does nothing in CHROME OR IE11 with javascript enabled and no popups blocked. All I can use are the 3 DEMO data sets.

The site creator here.

Sorry it's not working for you. The javascript code on that page is supposed to trigger the moment you paste data in. If it doesn't, it means one of two things:

• Your browser isn't running javascript (unlikely, and if the demo pages work, this is definitely not the problem).
• Your input couldn't be parsed for some reason.

You can see what it should have done by copy/pasting the two lines of example earnings in the little box right below on the page.

Popups or ad blockers shouldn't matter, there are none on here.

Some ideas to try:

• Make sure you copied the entire table from ssa.gov's Earnings record. Include the headers like "Work Year".
• You can even try just copying the entire page using 'Control+A' followed by 'Control+C'.
• Different browser.

I occasionally get comments from folks stating that they couldn't get the pasting to work, like you are describing. Most of the time it works, but sometimes not. I don't store any logs of this data for privacy reasons, so it's difficult for me to figure out what's going on. If you figure out what confuses the parsing routine, please let me know so I can improve the result for other people. You can reply on here or just send me an email (listed on the site).

A few useful bits of information:

• What OS are you running (Windows, IOS, Linux)?
• Does your data show an earnings record for 2018 yet?
• Please paste the same data into a text file, using notepad or something similar, and send it to me as an attachment. Feel free to modify the numbers such as setting all of the earnings to $1 or something: I'm only interested in the formatting.