FireCalc - What is your % now?

[lazygood4nothinbum]

How does your success rate drop if you die earlier?

oh i don't know. could it be because...

it seems nothing more than a crap shoot to take long term averages and apply them to short term lives.

so the longer you live, the better the chance that your success rate will correspond the longer term averages. while the shorter your life span, the better chance you have of, um, crapping out.

 

[ERD50]

If I retired today, using a life expectancy of 90, and my "comfortable but not luxurious" expense projections, I would be at a 3.7% WR, and 97.9% success expectation. If on the other hand I use a life expectancy of 85, the expectation of success drops to 94.9%.
R

How does your success rate drop if you die earlier? I would have expected the opposite....

2Cor521

I've seen the same thing, and it can be explained (and I think it has from time to time).

Let's say you are 50 YO and you use a life expectancy of 90, so you need a 40 year analysis. In 2008, FireCalc cannot use any runs from the years 1968 on, because you would not get a full 40 years of data.

But, if you are 50 YO and you use a life expectancy of 85, you need a 35 year analysis. In 2008, FireCalc can include 5 more runs from the years 1968 to 1973, and get a full 35 years of data in those runs.

So, if that longer time period you choose excludes some bad years, it can seem safer than a shorter run which *can* include that bad streak.

Counter-intuitive for sure, but that is what I've come to see from the tool.

-ERD50

 

[Rambler]

I've seen the same thing, and it can be explained (and I think it has from time to time).

Let's say you are 50 YO and you use a life expectancy of 90, so you need a 40 year analysis. In 2008, FireCalc cannot use any runs from the years 1968 on, because you would not get a full 40 years of data.

But, if you are 50 YO and you use a life expectancy of 85, you need a 35 year analysis. In 2008, FireCalc can include 5 more runs from the years 1968 to 1973, and get a full 35 years of data in those runs.

So, if that longer time period you choose excludes some bad years, it can seem safer than a shorter run which *can* include that bad streak.

Counter-intuitive for sure, but that is what I've come to see from the tool.

-ERD50

Exactly. The system, while great (and probably the best free one I have seen), is not completely flawless because it relies on past data and requires full sets of data to return an answer. That's why I run it with different life expectancies, and that's why I am targeting a relatively low SWR...ya know, belt and suspenders kinda guy.

R

 

[Tadpole]

I haven't re-run FireCalc but it did occur to me that it would be interesting if it had a "context analyzer". Let's say that 5% of the tested periods have the portfolio failing, what is the probability that the current economic environment would weight that 5% higher or lower than average or something like that. Can patterns be found around the performance past data that would permit this?

 

[Koolau]

Well, to be honest, I haven't run firecalc in 3 or 4 years. I was 100% at that time and my stash is essentially unchanged from a year ago - and quite a bit more than when I did run firecalc last. My WDR was quite low (IIRCC 2.3% but I'm actually way below that for now) based on my very low equity position. I wonder if I ran firecalc now if I would need a lower WDR for 100% since my (already small) equity position is even smaller due to the recent unpleasantness. I think that would count as a perverse outcome. 3-4 less years to live, more money in stash and yet lower WDR because I've been too conservative. Ironic.

But, I'm working toward increasing equities now that I'm converting Trad to Roth. Could be a good time to do so with equities off 40% +/-. We'll see.

Rambler, I'm with you on the belt and suspenders. I go so far as to get the suit with 2 pair of pants. Wait. I don't own a suit. Oh well, you get the idea. Back ups to my back ups is what I'm trying to say.

 

[skyline]

I'm down from a solid 100% a year ago to about 80% now, but that's over 60 years. Tightening the belt a little bit gets me to 100%, but I think it's pretty meaningless over a 60 year period.

Unfortunately, I'm not FIRE'd yet so hopefully my spending $'s at 80% will continue to go up before I pull the trigger. Funny, just before the market really went south, I was one missed meeting away from giving notice (but my boss was out of town that day). That day, the market crapped out big time and game me the jitters, so I'm still suffering from 'just one more year'...or in my case, 'just 6 more months'

 

[kumquat]

Still 100%. But I was late to realize I could go and then had a rather good year before this @#$%^&* that we have had lately.

FWIW, either LYBM or "means exceeded wants" means that our FC SWR is higher than what we want to spend.

YMMV

 

[Lsbcal]

If you think about it why would you rerun FIRECalc? First of all, the success rate is not the whole picture. What if you go down to 40% of your start portfolio before going back up? Will you be able to live with that result as being success? If so then fine. But your spending rate in that scenario will be way up from your start spending rate. Now what if it goes to 10% of the start value? Your spending rate may be quite high at that point. Will you be experiencing sleepless nights?

Our expense rate is well up from the start of 2008. But I initially ran FIRECalc and looked at the worst case drawdowns with the spreadsheet results. The worst was about 35% of the portfolio left before starting back up (1966 retirement to 1982 low). Have not got there yet and am already loosing a little sleep. Just have to find little areas to cut back on and the dog is going on a diet too . Today DW bought crab at $6 a pound and I found a sale on our favorite wine at Costco -- hows that for a solution!

 

[Alan]

Still 100% for me, RE'ing early in 2010 at 55 with 40yrs of expenses planned. I do expect SS to be there for me but, like Rambler, I tried running it with no SS and still at 100%.

 

[W2R]

Still 100% for me, RE'ing early in 2010 at 55 with 40yrs of expenses planned. I do expect SS to be there for me but, like Rambler, I tried running it with no SS and still at 100%.

That's wonderful!!

It never really occurred to me to try it, since I am already 60 and so I don't foresee any problems with SS for me. I discovered that with no SS my probability of success is reduced from 100% to 97.3%, but I can get 100% if I lower my expenditures by about $70/month. That's doable.

 

[Alan]

It never really occurred to me to try it, since I am already 60 and so I don't foresee any problems with SS for me. I discovered that with no SS my probability of success is reduced from 100% to 97.3%, but I can get 100% if I lower my expenditures by about $70/month. That's doable.

You are going to be just peachy. SS is going to be around in its current form long enough for you to be safe, or my name isn't ...... damn, what is my name?

 

[W2R]

You are going to be just peachy. SS is going to be around in its current form long enough for you to be safe, or my name isn't ...... damn, what is my name?

I agree - - I am sure SS will be around until, well, until h*ll freezes over, or at least until it snows in New Orleans! Oh that's right - - it did that yesterday, and even more up there in BR.

 

[Alan]

Couldn't believe how much snow we got here on Thursday. The photo is from our apartment early Thursday morning before I went to work. Many inches deep on the car, still lots of snow coming home from work - families of snowmen in yards along the side of our road, and this morning, STILL snow on the ground and roof tops.

So, never say never...

 

[unclemick]

I agree - - I am sure SS will be around until, well, until h*ll freezes over, or at least until it snows in New Orleans! Oh that's right - - it did that yesterday, and even more up there in BR.

I took mine early and spending it all - cause the Saint's lost in overtime - hope there will be 'some' left for youse peoples. .

If not - just remember - pssst Wellesley.

heh heh heh - .

P.S. Just BBQ'd Black Angus burgers on the back patio - our little snow from a few days ago is gone.

 

[bbbamI]

100% If it starts to go down, I'll just kick off a little sooner than expected.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

100% If it starts to go down, I'll just kick off a little sooner than expected.

Dont forget to wear your helmet.

 

[bbbamI]

Dont forget to wear your helmet.

I want to be cremated and have my ashes dumped in my helmet.

 

[W2R]

Couldn't believe how much snow we got here on Thursday. The photo is from our apartment early Thursday morning before I went to work. Many inches deep on the car, still lots of snow coming home from work - families of snowmen in yards along the side of our road, and this morning, STILL snow on the ground and roof tops.

So, never say never...

Alan, that is amazing and the photo is so beautiful!!

I took mine early and spending it all - cause the Saint's lost in overtime - hope there will be 'some' left for youse peoples. .

If not - just remember - pssst Wellesley.

heh heh heh - .

P.S. Just BBQ'd Black Angus burgers on the back patio - our little snow from a few days ago is gone.

UncleMick, enjoy your SS, and as for the Saints, there's always next year. Personally I think there will be plenty of SS for all of us, as promised. But the dollars we get from SS may be worth half what we expect by the time we get them.

Alan, you are so lucky to still have your snow. Our snow is gone, like UncleMick's - - in fact, it was gone yesterday afternoon because the temperature went up. We were not released from work to play in it, though I did sneak out on break and walked in it a little before it was completely melted. The huge flakes falling silently but heavily all about me gave me an enhanced appreciation of the three dimensionality of our atmosphere. What an experience.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I want to be cremated and have my ashes dumped in my helmet.

How romantic.

 

[Koolau]

Sorry to be the snow Scrooge here, but I moved to Hawaii with the expectation that I will never see snow again - unless I fly over Haleakala or the Big Island. Maybe i'll eventually miss snow, but I think it will be when h*ll freezes over before I do. Being from the midwest, I think of snow as an annoyance rather than something beautiful. And, if it starts out beautiful, it sure isn't within a day or two after the road crews work their magic.

I have to admit that snow in the rockies (say from the Stanley Hotel in Estes Park, CO) is absolutely breathtaking. If I ever have the urge to "visit" snow, I might head back there to get my requisite fill. Other than that... You can have my share!

Bah! Humbug!!