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Re: Forum Picks
Old 05-18-2007, 11:11 PM   #41
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Re: Forum Picks

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Yep, I know the feeling. Way too many of my stock picks turned out the same way.

Surprising how many of my picks turn to 'fertilizer' , don't trust me but do your due diligence!
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Re: Forum Picks
Old 05-18-2007, 11:12 PM   #42
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Re: Forum Picks

Kumquat:

Yes, Yara's pe is around 12 if I remember it correctly. It pays some div. I watch  it in the last few months.

I like how it makes the fertilizer. Maybe I need dig it deeper. 

Thanks, 
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Old 05-19-2007, 12:46 PM   #43
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Re: Forum Picks

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Splits/Spin-offs (a lot are upcoming):

E) Morgan Stanley - Will dispose of Discover
I did some digging on Discover already and I will probably end up buying some of it. I think it is a reasonably attractive business that will get absolutely dumped regardless of price by most of MS' stockholders, so I think it will be cheap. Under $20 a share would have me backing up the trunk even though the business model has certain flaws and is sensitive to deteriorations in consumer credit. I would also guess they will pay a decent dividend.

Didn't know American Standard was splitting up. Any idea on timing?
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Old 05-20-2007, 07:56 AM   #44
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Re: Forum Picks

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Hey don't tell HFWR you can invest in POT. I imagine he will liquidate everything.
Yes, officer, it's an investment... :P

(In my sanity...)
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Old 05-21-2007, 12:52 PM   #45
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Re: Forum Picks

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Didn't know American Standard was splitting up. Any idea on timing?
Sorry for the delay Brew. From the 10Q, ASO changed their mind and decided to sell the kitchen and bath division. Proceeds are being used to improve the balance sheets of the two remaining businesses - Wabco (no relation to Wab) and Trane. They intend to focus on Trane and Wabco is kind of the red-headed stepchild even though they have a leadership position in their market. The papers to spin off the Wabco division have been filed with the SEC and they are awaiting for approval to go forward.
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Old 05-21-2007, 02:57 PM   #46
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Oh well, so much for that idea. I was really interested in the kitchen & bath biz, although I suppose Wabco could be interesting.

Anyone know if there is a site or research service that tracks spin-offs?
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Old 05-21-2007, 03:26 PM   #47
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I find most of mine on Google - type in "spin-off 2007" or "spin off 2007" or add "announced" can help. I don't know of a particular site. You could check CSD's holdings from time to time. It's a spin-off ETF but from what I know they only add/hold spin-offs that are 100% independent (not those where the parent company retains a majority stake).
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Old 05-24-2007, 12:21 PM   #48
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Seems this thread has died a little. Any thoughts on AOD? I have done some due diligence on it and I like the strategy. Most strategies like this use options to make the dividend work, but this one doesn't. Decent yield...........
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Old 05-24-2007, 12:33 PM   #49
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Isn't there an open-ended fund that follows a similar strategy with a longer track record?
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Old 05-24-2007, 12:40 PM   #50
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Yes, it's ADVDX, but you can save the 1.19% expense ratio, and buy this.

It was the largest closed end fund IPO in history when it went live in January. About $3.9 billion in it already. I am thinking about it for some clients who like dividends. Looks like they try to keep a lid on big cap gains situations..........
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Old 05-24-2007, 01:11 PM   #51
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I just got back from vacation and took me a day or so to get my password back. Will update the charts with some of the new picks.

-h
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Old 05-24-2007, 02:18 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by lswswein View Post
I just got back from vacation and took me a day or so to get my password back. Will update the charts with some of the new picks.
-h
This one won't do that well in performance, unless the software can break out return from dividend versus capital appreciation. The goal is to grow NAV 4-5% a year and pay around a 10% dividend..........
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Old 05-24-2007, 02:59 PM   #53
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View Picks from ER

I added TONE. That was a great call by brewer. I am looking at others that got suggested but not many seem to have some detailed analysis of the stock. I don't want to just add names without any justification. Could use more details guys. Also let me know if you want to sell any of them.

As FD points out there is no way to keep track of stock appreciation vs dividends. Also the weighting is like the Dow right now - based on the stock price not equal weighting. Best way to look at the performance from inception and also the charts they have.
-h
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Old 05-24-2007, 03:03 PM   #54
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View Picks from ER

I added TONE. That was a great call by brewer. I am looking at others that got suggested but not many seem to have some detailed analysis of the stock. I don't want to just add names without any justification. Could use more details guys. Also let me know if you want to sell any of them.

As FD points out there is no way to keep track of stock appreciation vs dividends. Also the weighting is like the Dow right now - based on the stock price not equal weighting. Best way to look at the performance from inception and also the charts they have.
-h
I'm ok with that........do you need more info about AOD??
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Old 05-24-2007, 04:19 PM   #55
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I added the rest of them, including the following:
AOD & MGEE being FD's choices. I added MGEE at $35 (price on May18 ) just so that it gets tracked.
POT as kumquat's choice and FORG as semtex's choice. FORG went up and then fell - any followup on it. I did not find much discussion for the rest of them.
AOD was interesting because it is a fund not a stock - would be intersting if it starts trading at a significant discount or premium to its stocks.
Someone raised the issue of DSX dividends - they now show up. I didn't do anything - its gets reflected automatically based on payout dates

hope this is useful
-h
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Old 05-24-2007, 06:02 PM   #56
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I listened to Eagle's presentation at the Bear Stern's program earlier this month. Very interesting discussion about the industry as a whole. I can't find Diana's presentation on the internet.

It appears that the industry is good to go for at least 5 - 6 years. What he said about relationships being important (almost leverageable IMHO) in this industry is true. There is a real sense of community in shipping. The operators need to be very good business people but if you get a bad rep you have to work a lot harder to make the same profit.
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Old 05-24-2007, 08:32 PM   #57
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Ahh...not to anybody owns the picks, but I was the first to mention BPOP awhile back....

maybe you could replace in in the port. with movi...Testicular Fortitude

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Old 05-24-2007, 08:50 PM   #58
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Ahh...not to anybody owns the picks, but I was the first to mention BPOP awhile back....
- I don't get it. Didn't see anything there. Also there have been lots of threads where a stock gets mentioned but no real discussion about fundamentals.

Anyway an interesting thing, I now have the all the picks with equal weigthing too. The performance is slightly different but not much.

View Eq Wgt ER

-h
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Old 05-25-2007, 09:48 AM   #59
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Interesting to watch with a bag of popcorn.

Looks like one really good pick, one really bad pick, and everything else crowding up the middle.

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In a curious bit of coincidence, I chose my "New England Patriots 1996 AFC Champions" coffee mug this morning...
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Old 05-25-2007, 09:57 AM   #60
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Heh, well, you don't get my best ideas, so it is what it is. I do have some duty to my employer...
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