I think Bob is a pretty smart guy and he offers an interesting view on energy stocks. Snips from his report:
"Why are we so positive? Despite the price runup in energy stocks during the past five years, this sector represents barely 10% of the S&P 500."
"This is up from a low of approximately 5%, but it is down from the 1979 peak of over 30%. Notice that the energy sector topped out at a level that was very close to where the technology sector peaked in 2000. Though it has been a strong performer these past five years, its significance, as a percentage of the major averages, is still substantially less than other periods when a sector has become “the” sector to own. For example, the financial-services sector currently represents over 22% of the S&P 500. After nearly 25 years of interest-rate declines and the explosion in financial derivatives and questionable lending practices, we prefer to be invested in energy rather than in financial services."
"When I entered the investment industry in 1971, worldwide oil consumption was approximately 45 million barrels per day versus 84 million today. The last major oil fields to be discovered were in 1968 at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and the Shaybah offshore field in Saudi Arabia. We are on the verge of doubling consumption and yet, there have been no other major fields discovered. In the case of the Shaybah field, production began in 1998, so this has helped Saudi Arabia to maintain its daily production. After nearly forty years of searching, with the most advanced technology available and no major fields to show for it, does this not raise a question as to the likelihood of a continuation of low-cost energy prices? this were to occur, a barrel of oil would cost approximately $100 in ten years. For consumers not to experience an increase in their energy spending as a percentage of total spending, either their incomes have to grow in line with energy prices or they will have to reduce their energy use. Either way, this could affect the nature and growth of the economy considerably."
http://www.fpafunds.com/downloads/capital/aaa_semiannual_report_capital.pdf
I need to figure out how to do the tiny url link...sorry
"Why are we so positive? Despite the price runup in energy stocks during the past five years, this sector represents barely 10% of the S&P 500."
"This is up from a low of approximately 5%, but it is down from the 1979 peak of over 30%. Notice that the energy sector topped out at a level that was very close to where the technology sector peaked in 2000. Though it has been a strong performer these past five years, its significance, as a percentage of the major averages, is still substantially less than other periods when a sector has become “the” sector to own. For example, the financial-services sector currently represents over 22% of the S&P 500. After nearly 25 years of interest-rate declines and the explosion in financial derivatives and questionable lending practices, we prefer to be invested in energy rather than in financial services."
"When I entered the investment industry in 1971, worldwide oil consumption was approximately 45 million barrels per day versus 84 million today. The last major oil fields to be discovered were in 1968 at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and the Shaybah offshore field in Saudi Arabia. We are on the verge of doubling consumption and yet, there have been no other major fields discovered. In the case of the Shaybah field, production began in 1998, so this has helped Saudi Arabia to maintain its daily production. After nearly forty years of searching, with the most advanced technology available and no major fields to show for it, does this not raise a question as to the likelihood of a continuation of low-cost energy prices? this were to occur, a barrel of oil would cost approximately $100 in ten years. For consumers not to experience an increase in their energy spending as a percentage of total spending, either their incomes have to grow in line with energy prices or they will have to reduce their energy use. Either way, this could affect the nature and growth of the economy considerably."
http://www.fpafunds.com/downloads/capital/aaa_semiannual_report_capital.pdf
I need to figure out how to do the tiny url link...sorry
