Get out now and beat the debt ceiling crash?

[73ss454]

Bottom line is everyone after the fact says the same thing, shoulda, coulda woulda.

I surely admit that I have no idea what is going to happen in the market. Most of the time when I get a feeling of what's going to happen it turns out that I'm wrong. So I sit and collect dividends and such and hope for the best.

 

[ERD50]

ScaredtoQuit- You must be enjoying the mayhem that is unfolding before our eyes.

I have mixed feelings. Glad that I didn't lose net worth directly but you have to be pretty callous to enjoy a downturn.

I don't think it is fair to accuse him of 'enjoying' the fact that the market dropped. He said he felt it was certain to happen, which is very different. If a weatherman predicts tornadoes, I wouldn't claim he was happy when they came.

Enjoying the mayhem... hardly!

... If you guys take a look back at the responses, you will see that I took a severe beating for just asking the question. I could not understand why my question was perceived as utterly ridiculous. ...

If you look back at my responses, I don't think I said it was ridiculous to think the market might drop. I said it doesn't make sense to say it is certain (a 'slam dunk') to happen. If it was certain, you can be certain that the money would have already left the market. Who would wait for the drop if they knew it was going to happen? That is how markets work, they anticipate the future. IF you want to go against the market, you might win sometimes, but if you view it as certain, I predict you'll take some big losses.

And the drop came after the debt deal, and after the 4 week 'slam dunk' period. So (not that it's important), I'm not sure that 'vindicates' you anyhow.

The market goes up and down - that's my prediction, and I'm vindicated continuously.

-ERD50

 

[donheff]

If you look back at my responses, I don't think I said it was ridiculous to think the market might drop. I said it doesn't make sense to say it is certain (a 'slam dunk') to happen.

If the Gang of Six had been able to come up with a legislative proposal a few weeks earlier it might have carried the day. An agreement like that would have lead to a rally rather than a crash. Note I said might have, not would have.

 

[ScaredtoQuit]

Was my choice of words a little strong? Perhaps "slam dunk" was a little over the top. But I thought suggesting that something bad was going to happen as a result of the debt debate was a pretty easy call because of all of the ENMITY that currently exists in Congress. (Don't you guys watch the news?)

I remember just after QE2 was announced and there was a really successful hedge fund manager on CNBC. One of the commentators asked him the secret of his success. He responded that all he did was LISTEN to what was being said. He went one step further and predicted that the initiation of QE2 would DEFINITELY lead to higher equity prices. It did. And as a result, I'm sure that manager's fund has continued to prosper.

Yes, I was wrong about the exact date - things DO go wrong when you're bold enough to make a prediction about a crash. But I think I'm on pretty firm footing to say that the S&P downgrade and the nastiness of the resolution of the debt ceiling debate weigh quite heavily on the current decline in market conditions.

 

[ERD50]

Was my choice of words a little strong? Perhaps "slam dunk" was a little over the top.

Well, they were your words. Would you prefer I respond to what you didn't say? Or put words in your mouth?

But I thought suggesting that something bad was going to happen .... (Don't you guys watch the news?)

You still don't get it. Yes, we watch the news, just like everybody else. That is why I said that if 'everybody knows', then it is already factored into the market. It will take something else to move the market from there.

EXAMPLE: Remember when Microsoft announced a one-time $10 dividend (I might have the details wrong, going from memory)? As soon as it was announced, the stock rose by approximately that amount (minus the time-value of money between thee announcement and the effective date, and +/-other external events). Since it was known by everyone, it was immediately factored in. You couldn't get in after everyone heard about it on the news, and take advantage of it.

I remember just after QE2 was announced and there was a really successful hedge fund manager on CNBC. One of the commentators asked him the secret of his success. He responded that all he did was LISTEN to what was being said. He went one step further and predicted that the initiation of QE2 would DEFINITELY lead to higher equity prices. It did. And as a result, I'm sure that manager's fund has continued to prosper.

And I can assure you they didn't interview the fund manager that tried that and failed. Doesn't make good TV. Survivor-ship bias.

Yes, I was wrong about the exact date - things DO go wrong when you're bold enough to make a prediction about a crash. But I think I'm on pretty firm footing to say that the S&P downgrade and the nastiness of the resolution of the debt ceiling debate weigh quite heavily on the current decline in market conditions.

See donheff's post a few back - that is a possibility. Good news could have pulled the market up from it's 'baked in' reduction. You just can never tell (well, probably not often enough to do well).

-ERD50

 

[ScaredtoQuit]

I yield.

I DO get it. Every point you've made is dead on target. The next time I enter into a conversation about something I think is likely, I will try to be more mindful of my verbiage and speak more in hypothetical terms. I guess I was just a little salty from what I viewed as excessive criticism for asking what was actually meant to be a "what if" question.

 

[HFWR]

I yield.

I DO get it. Every point you've made is dead on target. The next time I enter into a conversation about something I think is likely, I will try to be more mindful of my verbiage and speak more in hypothetical terms. I guess I was just a little salty from what I viewed as excessive criticism for asking what was actually meant to be a "what if" question.

Find your comfort zone, and act accordingly. Everyone else can bugger off!

 

[DallasGuy]

I yield.

I DO get it. Every point you've made is dead on target. The next time I enter into a conversation about something I think is likely, I will try to be more mindful of my verbiage and speak more in hypothetical terms. I guess I was just a little salty from what I viewed as excessive criticism for asking what was actually meant to be a "what if" question.

I sympathize with you.

The people here tend to go on attack mode sometimes...makes me hesitant to even post things anymore, especially if it goes counter to the herd mentality.

 

[REWahoo]

I sympathize with you.

The people here tend to go on attack mode sometimes...makes me hesitant to even post things anymore, especially if it goes counter to the herd mentality.

Yep, things can become contentious at times.

I've learned I need to have the courage of my convictions and be prepared to defend my position whenever I post any thoughts on investment strategy.

I've also learned not to expect everyone to agree with me and that I needed to have thick skin. Otherwise, internet discussion boards - even one where the mods try to get everyone to 'be nice' like here - may not be a good fit.

 

[Gatordoc50]

Yesterday I thought I missed a great buying opportunity, lol. I just may buy some equities in my kids accounts tomorrow. Still waiting for S and P at 1050 to add equities to my portfolio.

 

[ERD50]

I sympathize with you.

The people here tend to go on attack mode sometimes...makes me hesitant to even post things anymore, especially if it goes counter to the herd mentality.

All a matter of perspective and it is subjective, but I just went back and scanned the first 30 or so posts on this thread, and I would not label any of them as an 'attack'. I think people gave good reasons as to why the advice was questionable, and the OP himself started with a comment about how hard it is to time the market (and then said this was a 'slam dunk'). It's almost as if he was 'attacking' himself? Some comments might have had a bit of humor/sarcasm wrapped in them, but I think you have to be pretty thin-skinned to call that an 'attack'.

At any rate, if I have an idea that goes against conventional wisdom, I expect it to be challenged pretty hard if I start a thread based on it. Seems I better be ready to defend it. Personally, I like to be challenged on my ideas - I may learn something new, discover something I hadn't considered, or at least get a better idea on how to address the issue with people who have a different viewpoint.

Heck, this whole forum is a testament to toppling the 'herd mentality' - you can't retire early, you can't manage your own finances, you can't avoid going deep into credit card debt, you have to keep up with the Joneses, etc. I guess you could say that 'dirty market timing' is the subset herd mentality of an anti-herd mentality group (you just can't say it ten times fast).

edit/add: Often there is a good reason for 'herd mentality', it is the combined wisdom/experience of the herd.

IMO, you should not be afraid to post an opposing view. Just be prepared to defend it.

-ERD50

 

[Purron]

I'm starting to relate to these little guys.

lemmings jumping off cliffs - YouTube

 

[DallasGuy]

All a matter of perspective and it is subjective, but I just went back and scanned the first 30 or so posts on this thread, and I would not label any of them as an 'attack'. I think people gave good reasons as to why the advice was questionable, and the OP himself started with a comment about how hard it is to time the market (and then said this was a 'slam dunk'). It's almost as if he was 'attacking' himself? Some comments might have had a bit of humor/sarcasm wrapped in them, but I think you have to be pretty thin-skinned to call that an 'attack'.

At any rate, if I have an idea that goes against conventional wisdom, I expect it to be challenged pretty hard if I start a thread based on it. Seems I better be ready to defend it. Personally, I like to be challenged on my ideas - I may learn something new, discover something I hadn't considered, or at least get a better idea on how to address the issue with people who have a different viewpoint.

Heck, this whole forum is a testament to toppling the 'herd mentality' - you can't retire early, you can't manage your own finances, you can't avoid going deep into credit card debt, you have to keep up with the Joneses, etc. I guess you could say that 'dirty market timing' is the subset herd mentality of an anti-herd mentality group (you just can't say it ten times fast).

edit/add: Often there is a good reason for 'herd mentality', it is the combined wisdom/experience of the herd.

IMO, you should not be afraid to post an opposing view. Just be prepared to defend it.

-ERD50

If people wouldn't dissect every last word but take the spirit of the post it would be much better. Just a suggestion.

 

[donheff]

If people wouldn't dissect every last word but take the spirit of the post it would be much better. Just a suggestion.

I sympathize with the sentiment but having posted some poorly thought out shots from the hip that got quickly shot down I value the point by point dissections. A lot of us enjoy this board as a source of opinions that challenge our preconceived notions. We WANT the push back. If you recognize that most of the shots across your bow are not really hostile you will enjoy the give and take more. A few are actually hostile and should be ignored.

 

[ERD50]

If people wouldn't dissect every last word but take the spirit of the post it would be much better. Just a suggestion.

Noted. But words are all we have in posts. I often have trouble with my words not being read in the same spirit I intended (and it's often MY problem). All we can do is try to clear it up, or let it go.

-ERD50

 

[calmloki]

I enjoy reading of others thoughts or of their actions. Sometimes I find value or hints or tips. I tend to write what I do or have done. Some of the things I do are successful, some are failures. The failures are usually better stories; some of the things I've done with success for decades are characterized by others as way too risky or way too much work. That's ok - I done 'em my way, they haven't.

If others find any merit in my words they are welcome to incorporate whatever of merit they find. I don't feel any wild desire to defend or justify my actions or my words.