Get out now and beat the debt ceiling crash?

MichaelB said:
Hate to disappoint you, but the Four Yorkshiremen is not original Python. It was written for "At Last the 1948 Show" and two of the writers went on to Monty Python fame - and they brought that skit along with them.

The original:

YouTube - ‪Original 4 Yorkshiremen Sketch‬‏
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Och, aye. But you try and tell that to the young people of today, and will they believe you? Nay!
 
However, I can't help thinking that the ongoing battle over the debt ceiling offers a unique opportunity to earn some extra trading profits. It's a slam dunk that some time over the next four weeks, the market is going to crash because of the contention in Washington.
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I think you could have something here but I think you are going a little overboard. Yes, it seems possible that the market could take another dive into the 1250 or 1200 range but I would not get out today or tomorrow based upon that. Now what I would do is if that happens is to exchange some fixed income for some equities, a modified market timing/rebalancing. My AA could use another 5 or 10% more in equities but only if I see a good down turn, one that will afford buying at a good price. So no, I think selling or exchanging completely out of equities based upon something that might happen is way too iffy.
 
While I am not ready to run for the hills, I'm sitting at about 40% cash based on my view of the economy. I really wonder how many here think that the status quo is clear sailing ahead? Look at unemployment, the housing market, the european pigs, price of oil/healthcare/education, no more arrows in the Feds quiver, political gridlock, casino wallstreet, states in bad fiscal shape, infrastructure crumbling, etc.

That said, to the OP, why not buy a hedge (eg Bearx) vs totally going to cash.
 
REWahoo said:
The status quo is never "clear sailing ahead". If it was, that's when I'd want out...if I could figure out what to do once I was...
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Buy and hold is fine, but the "trend" does not look promising to me. No one can say with any certainty what will happen, so you are left to set an AA that allows you to sleep at night and thats probably the best any one can do, and with respect to that, there are no rules that say your AA cannot be adjusted based on ones view of the changing economic landscape.
 
DFW_M5 said:
While I am not ready to run for the hills, I'm sitting at about 40% cash based on my view of the economy. I really wonder how many here think that the status quo is clear sailing ahead? Look at unemployment, the housing market, the european pigs, price of oil/healthcare/education, no more arrows in the Feds quiver, political gridlock, casino wallstreet, states in bad fiscal shape, infrastructure crumbling, etc.
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Wow, I think I'm going to have to cut my throat, the end of the world is near.:rolleyes:
 
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DFW_M5 said:
Buy and hold is fine, but the "trend" does not look promising to me. No one can say with any certainty what will happen, so you are left to set an AA that allows you to sleep at night and thats probably the best any one can do, and with respect to that, there are no rules that say your AA cannot be adjusted based on ones view of the changing economic landscape.
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Nope, no rules but the track record of those that anticipate what they think the market will do is abysmal. YMMV. You have to be right twice (for exit and entry) and overcome your cash drag, not to mention tax implications if trading outside a tax deferred account. Better to set your sleep at night AA with consideration for both good and bad times and forgetaboutit.

DD
 
73ss454 said:
Wow, I think I'm going to have to cut my throat, the end of the world is near.:rolleyes:
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Hardly the end of the world, this is not 2008 all over. However, I felt the OP was getting some harsh respones, so just weighing in with an alternate view. But, I am about 40% cash and have been taking $s off the equity side since April and will probably hold at this level until I see some bargains.
 
DblDoc said:
Better to set your sleep at night AA with consideration for both good and bad times and forgetaboutit.

DD
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For me, port is entirely tax sheltered, and yep, I am setting my AA with consideration to both good and bad times. I have largely been a buy and hold investor, but I will tweak when I feel its prudent. I am not hitting home runs, but the market has treated me reasonably well and I have no regrets over 30 years of investing.
 
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ls99 said:
Don't worry, as in all Greek conundrums, Deus Ex Machina will solve the problem.
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You think the Chicago Dem Machine will be involved in saving Greece?
 
youbet said:
You think the Chicago Dem Machine will be involved in saving Greece?
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That would definitely qualify as unexpected and contrived.
 
All I know is that after the past week, and today! I'm glad I didn't "get out" of the market. Who thought the market would make up for all of May and June in one week? Just goes to show, you can't predict the market.
 
dtbach said:
All I know is that after the past week, and today! I'm glad I didn't "get out" of the market. Who thought the market would make up for all of May and June in one week? Just goes to show, you can't predict the market.
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Sure you can predict it. If you look above some of us did just that. This downturn was not the end of the world. Just some day to day responses of the Greek problem that would be resolved as soon as some resolution was passed.

Timing is harder. However, using time as a variable in understanding investing is foolish (or incredibly difficult). Time is relevant for work/labor where it tends to have some strong linear effect (creative work is an exception to this). Investing is more like hunting. Alternatively, time is a nonlinear and likely weak variable in investing. Certain conditions and environments will have certain outcomes. They may occur today or they may occur next year, but they usually do occur.
 
dtbach said:
All I know is that after the past week, and today! I'm glad I didn't "get out" of the market. Who thought the market would make up for all of May and June in one week? Just goes to show, you can't predict the market.
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I predict we'll have another "flashing blue light special" of stocks on sale within the next two months.

The latest drop was what, not much more than 7% off the peak? I don't think the word "correction" even gets used until it's more than 10%.
 
You are rarely run over by the train you see coming.


I predict a solution to the debt ceiling before we stop making payments and a start of the football season before the owners lose any TV revenue :D
 
There are two rules to investing that an old wise man taught me.

1) Don't be afraid to take a profit
2) Don't be afraid to take a loss

That and my gut has worked for me. That said, I would never advocate getting completely out of the market.
 
Great to watch Rukeyser again. Never a better financial show.
 
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