Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 12:10 PM   #41
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 212
Re: Getting to Enough

Quote:
I ask that you kindly knock off the nonsense and permit those community members who wish to engage in reasoned discussions of what the historical data says re SWRs do so in peace.
I suggest you follow your own advice.

I think Bernstein has holes in his theory, too. This is not "nonsense" nor "unreasoned discussions". It is merely a difference of opinion.

And it's "data say".

arrete
__________________

__________________
arrete is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 12:21 PM   #42
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Getting to Enough

This is not "nonsense" nor "unreasoned discussions". *It is merely a difference of opinion.

If there are posters who want to have discussions of what the conventional methodology studies say without proponents of the data-based methodology jumping in and arguing that the conventional methodology is analytically invalid for purposes of determining SWRs, I have no problem with that. There ARE legitimate differences of opinion here and those differences should be respected.

The other side of the story is that proponents of the data-based methodology should also be given the freedom to engage in non-disupted discussions of what the data says from their perspective. DCMs should not be permitted to disrupt those threads with all sorts of nonsense. Claims of mental illness are nonsense. Charges of trollery are nonsense. You know the sort of thing I am talking about.

All community members, regardless of their views on SWRs, benefit from us following reasonable rules promoting civil discussion at this forum. We should all be working together to achive that goal. Working together in good faith, I am certain that we could pull it off.
__________________

__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 12:44 PM   #43
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 212
Re: Getting to Enough

Quote:
DCMs should not be permitted to disrupt those threads with all sorts of nonsense.
This thread was started by a DCM, according to you, so all DCMs are welcome. Blither about not being allowed to post is not welcome, because it has nothing to do with the thread, besides being garbage.

Why do I bother?



__________________
arrete is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 12:52 PM   #44
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Getting to Enough

This thread was started by a DCM, according to you, so all DCMs are welcome.

If you want only DCMs to participate on a thread you start, I am willing to honor that. It's important that you say that because when you say that you put community members reading the thread on notice that they are hearing only one side of the story on that particular thread.

Blither about not being allowed to post is not welcome

It's not blither, Arrete. It is a serious problem and it has been for 33 months now. There have been scores and scores of community members who have expressed a desire to hear about the Data-Based SWR Tool. I can provide links if there are any newcomers who have doubts on this point. Those community members have made it clear that they are not willing to participate in threads that are poisoned with all sorts of ugliness that the DCMS have been bringing to the table. The ugliness is uncalled for, and it should stop.

We should all want it to stop, regardless of our views on SWRs. This is an issue on which the community should be united. It is only by permitting a variety of views to be expressed that the boards gain life and blood and achieve their full potential.
__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 01:21 PM   #45
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 212
Re: Getting to Enough

Hope you all enjoy this. The "kids" (the youngest of which is 46) got this for Dad. It's a 2-seater and it's the Penobscot Bay. Not quite ocean kayaking, but it can get rough enough.

[img]http://www.geocities.com/arrete42/kayak.jpg
[/img]

arrete
__________________
arrete is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 04:03 PM   #46
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Getting to Enough

Feeding it will not make it go back under the bridge.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 04:32 PM   #47
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
Re: Getting to Enough

Quote:
And it's "data say". *
arrete
Wow! Waspish, but you don't have to be nice if you are right.

Mikey
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 04:53 PM   #48
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 212
Re: Getting to Enough

Quote:
Wow! Waspish, but you don't have to be nice if you are right.
I find it hard to say nice things to someone who has just said nasty things about me. I'm human.

arrete
__________________
arrete is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 05:18 PM   #49
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Re: Getting to Enough

Vanguard Balanced Index (a 60/40) - current yield 2.49%

Vanguard Wellesley (a 40/60) managed value fund and a good one - current yield 3.67%

?? Who would look better in a kayak - the Norwegian widow or Yogi Berra??

Hint - even with grey hair, she's a hottie.

Dump your mutual funds, calculators, MPT, Index funds, yada, yada - buy a few good dividend paying stocks and don't pay anybody any stinking expense/management fees.

How much is enough? - when you can live on the dividends of what you have.

Heh, heh - not a CHP - but close enough!



__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 05:31 PM   #50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Re: Getting to Enough

P. S. - Bogle, Bernstein, and yes Intercst, JWR have taken a look in their own way at individual stocks - to varying degrees. Interestingly, Bernstein hangs with index funds - but as a retiree in the distribution phase, I can take his data differently.

So I'll still SWAG 4% of my nest egg handgrenade wise, but look to dividends and interest as 'real money' to live on.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 05:33 PM   #51
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Getting to Enough

Quote:
salaryguru,

Have you looked at how following market timing "gurus" either in the media or on the internet affects your portfolio performance? *Following market timing or "switching" strategies how quickly does one have to take on paying employment to avoid exhausting their portfolio?

Thanks for your insight on this.
Hi Hyper,

I haven't figured out a good way to look at this issue other than use other's results. The other thing is that I have not been inclined to consider the strategies I've read about. Wabmester posted an interesting study several months (maybe longer) ago that back-tested a number of switching strategies and found one of them to provide some advantage throughout time. (If wab is still out there and isn't mad at me for debating him about race issues, he might be able to direct us to that study again.)

But as I recall, the amount of portfolio that you needed to switch in order to see an advantage was significant and I didn't feel comfortable doing that.

I haven't looked at JWR1945's switching strategy stuff in a long time. I ran some of his retirement calculators when he first made them available. Again, I wouldn't be comfortable switching that much of my portfolio at a time based on historically back-tested results.

So . . . at least for now I'm avoiding market timing and portfolio switching. But if my portfolio was plummeting toward zero, I would probably change my mind.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 06:01 PM   #52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Re: Getting to Enough

SG

At what point does emotion overwhelm math.? The last go round, albiet a minor nit historywise - the 2000 -2003 mini dip had my Lifestragety mod -16.5% one quarter from the 1999 peak. Since my mental back of the envelope break point was - 22%(ala a 73-74 type drop), took no action.

Of course the dividends/interest as a percent yield have been trending down.

As interested as we are in getting to enough in the accumulation phase, how many of us in distribution work the defense.

A 50% market drop in stocks would start to touch my panic button with the balanced index mix I have - depending on what interest rates did. I estimate a 25% drop in overall portfolio would get my attention.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 09:04 PM   #53
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,234
Re: Getting to Enough

Honestly, it's amazing how quickly your stomach loses it's taste for market volatility once you have something to lose! When my portfolio was only worth a cheap car, I was basically in a "let it ride!" mode. Now that it approaches the cost of a house in flyover country, volitilaty can be a 4 figure paper loss in one trading day! That freaks me out! Guess I'll get a thicker skin with experience....
__________________
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 09:21 PM   #54
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,375
Re: Getting to Enough

[quote]SG

At what point does emotion overwhelm math.? *The last go round, albiet a minor nit historywise - the 2000 -2003 mini dip had my Lifestragety mod -16.5% one quarter from the 1999 peak. Since my mental back of the envelope break point was - 22%(ala a 73-74 type drop), took no action.

Of course the dividends/interest as a percent yield have been trending down.

As interested as we are in getting to enough in the accumulation phase, how many of us in distribution work the defense

UncleMick: The 2000-03 woke me up after a long slumber. Hung in there by my fingernails. (Was about 80stk, 20bonds & cash, and vowed when and if I got even to reverse percentages. (Did so a few months back.)
No more wide receiver for me.
Got uncomfortably close to the red-zone.
May get eaten up eventually by a 4 yard and cloud of dust ala Woodey Hayes offense, but too late in the game to get beaten by a long pass.
Let's hear it for the defense.
__________________
Jarhead* is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-21-2005, 09:33 PM   #55
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Getting to Enough

Quote:
SG

At what point does emotion overwhelm math.? *. . .
Hi unclemick,

I don't think any of us knows the answer to that till it happens. You've certainly had to go through more gut wrenching downturns than me.

I think I'm a pretty disciplined investor compared to many, but I haven't really been tested since retiring 2 years ago. And a 50% drop in equities right now would be pretty hard to be comfortable with. When it comes to my own investments, I would be very happy if I never have to find out how bad things have to get before my emotions overwhelm my rational side.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-22-2005, 03:14 AM   #56
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Getting to Enough

I find it hard to say nice things to someone who has just said nasty things about me. *I'm human.

I've never said anything unkind to you or about you, Arrete. Not once have I done that. At my web site, I have a page where I list 20 of the best savers in the world. Your screen-name is included in that list. Was it an act of unkindness to you to include you on that list? I sure don't think so.

There is one thing that you have done that was unkind. It was unkind to the hundreds of commmunity members who expressed a desire to have reasoned debate about SWRs, but it was especially unkind to interest. That was when you made a decision not to call intercst on the nonsense posting tactics he has used to block reasoned discussion. I believe that you probably thought that you were being kind to him by doing that, and you that you somehow justified the unkindness you were doing to all the others because you considered him your friend. I think you were wrong.

There is no way that we all can continue for all time to engage in deception on the question of how SWRs are calculated. Sooner or later, we are going to have to permit the truth to be told. At that time, intercst is going to have to acknowledge getting the number wrong. Given that he has to do it sooner or later, it is no act of kindness to him to stretch the matter out as long as possible. It is better that it be done quickly and that he get it behind him.

It's not just you who are human, Arrete. We all are human, and that means that we all have weaknesses. One of intercst's weaknesses is an inability to admit mistakes. You don't help him by encouraging him in his reluctance to admit his errors. You make things worse for him by doing so. Can you honestly say that you think that intercst is in a better place for having engaged in the posting tactics that he has engaged in for the past 33 months? I sure don't think that is so.

We are a community. One of the jobs of a community is to extend a hand of kindness to community members who veer out of control. Intercst is out of control and has been for a long time. You can help him, if you can find it in your heart (it takes courage) to do so. I say that you should do so. I say that not out of nastiness. I say it because I think it is true. I think you would feel better about yourself if you did it and I think intercst would end up feeling better about himself too if you did it.

If any other community member got a number wrong in a study, he or she would acknowledge the mistake. When you put intercst in a different class, you are showing a lack of respect for him. You are suggesting that you think he is not capable of living up to the norms followeed by all the rest of us. Maybe that's so, maybe it isn't. The only way we will ever find out is to treat him the same way we would treat any other community member and see how he responds. He deserves that much from you, Arrete. He deserves at least a chance to see whether he can do what all the rest of us have always managed to do, and what all the rest of us have always demanded from all fellow community members but one.
__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-22-2005, 03:30 AM   #57
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Getting to Enough

Waspish, but you don't have to be nice if you are right.

I don't have any objection to arrete's pointing out the grammer error. But I do want to register my disagreement that one does not have to be nice when one is right. It is when you are right that you have to be especially careful to be nice. When you are right, your words carry more power. There is even more of a responsibility to be nice in such circumstances.

A discussion-board community is two things: (1) it is a place for sharing information bits; and (2) it is a group of human beings interacting. There are two messages conveyed in every single post. There is always the surface message, the information bit being conveyed. And there is always also the tone, the spirit of the post, that part that results from the fact that we are not robots speaking into the air but human beings speaking to each other.

We have to make an effort to be nice because the tone we use affects the community in which we say the things we say. It's not just the information bits that matter. The spirit that is created matters too. When the spirit is good, we see more and more people joining the discussions. When the spirit is poor, we see more and more staying away.

We need to change the spirit of the SWR discussions. We have driven many fine contributors away from them because of the ugliness that we have permitted on them. The level of ugliness that has been permitted on the SWR threads is below the norms of our community. We need to do better, or else the important SWR information bits that needto get out will not be able to get out.

On a discussion board, the information bits and the human element overlap. They are not entirely separate areas of concern. Our community has demonstrated beyond any doubt that it possesses the ability to deal well with the information bits aspect of the SWR question. It now needs to show that it can deal successfully with the human element of the equation. It needs to take steps to create the tolerance of minority views needed so that those community members wanting to share information bits re the minority viewpoint may do so in an effective manner.
__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-22-2005, 03:37 AM   #58
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Getting to Enough

Bogle, Bernstein, and yes Intercst, JWR have taken a look in their own way at individual stocks - to varying degrees.

That's right. That's why we need fine posters like JWR back posting at this board. Every day that he stays away is another day that we miss out on the insights that he provides. And every day that the scores of others who have expressed a desire for reasoned discussion stay away, we lose the benefits of their insights as well.

We have all lost enough. It is time to take the steps needed to get JWR and the scores of other posters whose contributions we are now missing out on back posting on the SWR question at this board.
__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-22-2005, 03:53 AM   #59
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Getting to Enough

I haven't looked at JWR1945's switching strategy stuff in a long time. *I ran some of his retirement calculators when he first made them available. *Again, I wouldn't be comfortable switching that much of my portfolio at a time based on historically back-tested results.

That was a fine answer, SalaryGuru. I applaud you for a number of your recent posts. There are a number of community members who do not find merit in the Data-Based SWR Tool. You are showing them the way to remaining true to their convictions without crossing the line that should not be crossed. You have done this on a number of occasions now and you have done it extremely well.

There are of course arguments that can be made against the Data-Based SWR Tool. That's true of any tool discussed at the board, and it is especially true of the Data-Based Tool because this tool is something very new and some of the results it generates are very much at odds with the prevailing wisdom on how to invest successfully.

I am not the least bit interested in having my critics fold and opt out of the discussions altogether. I generally gain more from the input of my critics than from the input of my supporters. I am writing a book on the Data-Based SWR Tool, and I would like to see this community provide the sort of input that makes that book 10 times better than it otherwise would have been (as was the case with my "Passion Saving" book). I need to hear about the weak points of the ideas that JWR1945 and I have put on the table.

What I don't need is nonsense. In order to profit from the discussions, I need input from a community. There is no way that we can get a large number of community members to participate so long as all threads discussing the Data-Based SWR Tool are poisoned with deception and ridicule and all this other nonsense. That stuff kills us.

I will give one example of where the line has to be drawn. Bernstein says on Page 234 of his book that the SWR (for a high-stock portfolio) at the top of the bubble was 2 percent. That should be accepted as a fact by all community members participating in the debate. There are all sorts of things that can be put forward as implications of that fact. But the fact itself must be acknowledged if there is to be any hope of us gaining useful insights from our efforts here.

Those not willing to acknowledge the basic facts simply should not be given a seat at the table. They have nothing constructive to add, and they should be asked kindly to leave the rest of us to have our discussions of matters of substance in peace.
__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Getting to Enough
Old 02-22-2005, 06:04 AM   #60
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 212
Re: Getting to Enough

SG and TH

Do you suppose the inflection point is because the "stodginess" of interest rates overwhelms the "volatility" of stock? Curious that it would happen at a particular point.

Higher dividend stocks are nice, but I think they've become so popular that it's a little late to get into them. I'll stick with my guys who increase my capital gains (hopefully).

Can anyone translate unclemick, or do you learn as you go along

arrete
__________________

__________________
arrete is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:27 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.