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Good Saver, Bad Investor
Old 02-27-2012, 05:59 PM   #1
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Good Saver, Bad Investor

First off, Iíve been reading these forums since 2008 and without the knowledge Iíve gained from your stories and advice, Iíd still be w**king 80 hour weeks under two horrible bosses instead of retired at age 54. So thank you!!!

I'm single, no kids. FireCalc and my spreadsheets show a 100% success rate if all goes according to plan, but I need some help in getting off the investing ledge. I have a
little big problem with risk aversion and paralysis as youíll see below.

Assets:

$100k
in MM at 1% interest rate
$200k
in CDs averaging 1.75% (2 & 3 year CDs)

$385k
in Fidelity 401K (still with my former employer). ). Youíll see my risk aversion in action with my current asset allocation, and this is after I moved some $ from MM!

73.83% PIM TOTAL RT INST $284,528.96
8.74%
VANG TOT BD MKT INST $33,696.71
6.91% VANG TOT STK MKT IS $26,610.93
5.65% FID DIVERSIFD INTL K $21,788.54
2.53%
SEQUOIA FUND $9,756.78
2.33% ROYCE LOW PR STK IS $8,981.22

Non-Colaíd pension of $62K beginning at age 65
, or lesser amounts starting at $31K at age 55. (No plans to start before 65.)

Eligible for Social Security at close to the max amount.


Paid off home valued around
$300k.

Iím currently living off the $300k in savings with annual expenses averaging $37k for the next two years, then rising to $45k when Cobra and Cal-Cobra run out and Iíll have to get a HIPPA conversion policy (pre-existing conditions). If Iím lucky, the Affordable Care Act wonít get repealed and expenses wonít be so high. I have extra money earmarked for a new car every ten years and some padding for home maintenance/repairs. For health, I budgeted for the premium plus expenses up to the max out-of-pocket. When the savings run low, Iíll need to tap into the 401k money until the pension (from a stable Fortune 500 company) kicks in.


So hereís where Iím stuck
: I know that I should roll the 401K money into a traditional IRA, then tax-efficiently convert as much as possible to a ROTH each year until I start needing to withdraw from the traditional. And I know I need to do a much better job at choosing my asset allocation and funds. But every time I get ready to pick up the phone and call Vanguard, I get knots in my stomach and freeze. I guess the biggest issue is that I need account stability between now and 2023 when the pension starts. At that point, the pension alone should cover my expenses until inflation (I estimated 3%) eats away at its spending power. But with SS and whatever is left in the IRA(s), my spreadsheets show that Iím good through age 95+.

Question 1:
A) Should I leave my money at Fido in the 401K?

B ) Leave it at Fido and roll into an IRA?
C) Roll the 401K into a Vanguard IRA?

Question 2:
Advice please on asset allocation and funds. Iím afraid to have too much in stocks, but maybe even more afraid to have as much as I do in bond funds with interest rates pegged to increase in the next couple of years.


Question 3:

Does my thought process make sense regarding the ROTH conversion?

Question 4:
What am I missing?


Thank you in advance, and sorry this is so long!


Zan
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:56 PM   #2
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Look before you leap !

The rollover IRA is not always superior to a 401K. I suppose you already know about the more choices and flexibility in the IRA. But were you aware of the greater 401K immunity from lawsuits over an IRA. were you also aware that you can take money out of a 401K penalty free at 55 years old compared to 59.5 for an IRA. That assumes you leave the 401K company after you were 55 years old.

Sometimes (especially at big companies) 401k's have access to incredibly low cost institutional mutual funds. Is that the case with you. Sometimes the IRA equivalent costs more (sometimes a lot more) than the 401k fund. Sometimes the opposite is true though.

regarding questions #2 and #3) I suggest you post over on the Boggleheads forum (http://www.bogleheads.org/). They have people there that thrive on the minute' of asset allocation and tax issues. We aren't as smart on this forum. Asset allocation isn't as black and white as some would have you believe though. There are many flavors of asset allocation.

The big thing for you though, is that you are doing really well and should be proud of where you are financially.
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Old 02-27-2012, 07:02 PM   #3
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This is one of the more interesting retirement puzzles I've seen posted. You have a moderate amount of assets with a very nice pension many years away. The trick is how do you bridge assets to reach the pension. This changes much of my traditional advice.

Question 1.
All of the options are fine so it doesn't matter much. I am a fan of PIMCO funds within 401K and the fact that you have access to both Vanguard Total Stock and Total Bond funds is plus for keeping. If it is easy for you to make partial roll overs to a Roth conversion, I'd keep where it is. Otherwise either Vanguard or Fido are fine.

Q2. Normally I'd say you definitely want a lot more in equities but in your situation perhaps not. Since you have expense of 45K and 5-6 years before you can easily tapping into the 401K I think you are pretty much stuck with CDs and Money Markets for you taxable accounts.

Likewise you have 5+ years before you can/should tap your 401k. For me having 80%+ of my money tied up in low yielding bonds is way more scary than the stock market, but you and I have different risk profiles. Still a 50/50 allocation in the 401K/IRA seems sensible. Your retirement is vulnerable to a high inflation since only SS has a COLA provisions. Stocks generally do well in a period of moderate 3-5% inflation, and bonds do horrid.

Q3. Right now it looks like you have basically zero income so I would take advantage of this and do some ROTH conversions and plan on having them complete before collecting pension or SS.

Q4. What are you missing? Spending your money before you die! I suspect from an economic perspective delaying collecting SS and your pension is the smart thing to do. On the other hand I look at somebody wisely taking his 685K in assets and spend 45K/year or so over the next 11 years. Then suddenly pension and SS kick in and your income doubles to $90K, what the hell will you do with the money?

I'd seriously look at taking either SS at 62 or your pension earlier maybe not at 55 but ~60 and maintain a bigger asset base. You pension has rather significant penalty for starting early so perhaps SS 62 is better deal. It just strikes me as odd that at 65 your income doubles.
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Old 02-27-2012, 10:43 PM   #4
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On the pension, you might look at different ages and where it optimizes. While I can take my private pension anytime between 55 and 65, the sweet spot of our plan seems to be about age 60. IOW the annual increase in benefits for waiting from 55 to 60 is substantial but the increases are more modest from 60 to 65.

I wonder if you might be more comfortable in a balanced fund.

The 401k>IRA>Roth makes sense and is what i plan to do.
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Old 02-28-2012, 05:25 AM   #5
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If your problem is you freeze when it's time to call Vanguard to make changes, you might be better off with a low cost financial advisor who can make those changes for you. There are a few mentioned here and also over at Bogleheads, such as Rick Ferri and Evanson Asset Management.
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Old 02-28-2012, 10:28 AM   #6
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Be a man and make decisions (or a real woman if I got the sex wrong). Just tell Vanguard LSBCAL sent you ... ha!

Move it all to Vanguard as that will help you see it as a whole portfolio. You can get PTTRX there by opening up a VBS account. Ask them about the process and to be helped. If you transfer enough assets they have an investment advisor work out a plan for you -- at least that was how it worked some years ago. That can be very helpful.

Your biggest decision will be the AA which, I'm sure you know, will have to be something you can live with through equity declines.
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Old 02-28-2012, 11:32 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by clifp View Post
Your pension has rather significant penalty for starting early so perhaps SS 62 is better deal. It just strikes me as odd that at 65 your income doubles.
My mega-corp pension (also non-COLA) is exactly the same. Half the amount at 55 versus 65. It's been a while since I checked, but the actuarial calculation seems to make that a wash for them, which is what I'd expect. What interest would they have in making one more advantageous than the other?


I didn't go through all the numbers, but I don't understand the OP's reluctance to taking that pension early. $31K/year solves 31/45ths of the problem, would only need to pull $14K per year until SS kicks in.

Again, I have not run the numbers, but if the OP sees 100% success in FIRECALC with a conservative investment, than why not just stay conservative if those 'risky' equities are so frightening? Though I'm not sure the draw-down prior to pension SS is all factored in?


-ERD50
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Old 02-28-2012, 01:36 PM   #8
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If you haven't already, this easy quiz might give you something to think about regarding your risk tolerance and a corresponding asset allocation. Free and anonymous...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsInvQuestionnaire
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Old 02-28-2012, 02:26 PM   #9
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I had to chuckle at the title of the thread. That has always been the way I described myself. I always saved - a lot. But, I made a lot of investment mistakes. The good news is that one mistake - eventually having nearly 80% of my net worth in one single (my Megacorp) stock is the reason I got to retire early. The stock went to the moon - I dumped most of it - then it tanked. So, I don't recommend that even though it worked for me.

re: Freezing. Kind of describes me. Took me a long time to call VG. But, I'm glad I did. They are relatively easy to work with and don't seem to mind holding your hand when you need it. Naturally, they won't offer too much advice (they aren't allowed to on any tax issues, for instance) but you can bounce ideas off of them and they can direct you to other sources to check out your strategies for yourself.

One suggestion (not advice) for OP: Consider taking your "winnings" out of your $300K house. Consider renting or (I would say, preferably) buying a lower cost house in a lower cost area. Obviously, if OP loves the house/area, s/he could use this as a back-up in the future. 30% NW in a house seems high and probably leads to higher expenses (maintenance, taxes, etc.) Of course, if OP considers the value of pension and SS, then the house is no longer 30% of NW. This can be a philosophical as well as financial question. Just saying how I would look at it since I don't include my dwelling in my NW for most purposes.

One other suggestion for OP. Check out the pension and be certain it is rock solid. If not, be certain the Pension Guarantee system will cover the whole thing if need be. Probably not an issue, but just sayin'.... Oh, and YMMV.
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Old 02-28-2012, 02:48 PM   #10
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Thanks to all who have responded! It spurred me to call Fidelity and get some answers to questions that some of you brought up.

MasterBlaster - I wasn't aware of the greater 401K immunity or the potentially lower expense ratio for institutional funds in a 401K. You were right. The Pimco Total Return expense ratio would go from .46 to .75 if I go the IRA route. Thanks for the heads up on this issue.

Clifp - Thanks so much for your thoughtful post. I found out today that My 401K plan does not allow for partial withdrawals since I left the company, so in order to do Roth Conversions, I'll need to transfer all of my funds out of the 401K.

pb4uski - Thanks for the advice. I keep going back and forth about when to start the pension and how early to start SS. I think I think too much! It's probably better to see how the next few years play out and decide when the time gets closer. I'm driving myself crazy looking at options on my spreadsheets!

Michael B - Not a bad idea, and thanks for the recommendations.

Lsbcal - It's MS. Zantastic, but I'll be sure to tell them you sent me.

ERD50 - My reluctance to take the pension early is that I don't currently need the money, and there's longevity in my family, so I'd like to hold off as long as possible. I think you're right about not having a need for risky investments since I'll have the pension. Thanks for your comments.

Midpack - Thanks for the link! It gives me a 30/70 allocation. I think I could live with that.

So,weighing the points that MasterBlaster brought up about advantages of a 401K vs. the ability to convert money tax free to a Roth, it looks like I'll be rolling my 401K over to an IRA.

My last question is... is there any real benefit to moving from Fidelity to Vanguard?

Again, thanks for all your help. I'm still a little cold, but no longer frozen!

Zan
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Old 02-28-2012, 03:07 PM   #11
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I'm glad I'm not alone! Yea!

As for the house, I pretty much already followed your advice and sold my previous home in a higher priced area which enabled me to pay cash for the new one. It's much closer to family and nearly 60 years newer, so it should be cheaper to maintain. If things end up getting tight, I have considered renting this house out and downsizing even further to a rental.

I believe the pension to be safe, but you never know for sure do you? The company is doing well, but they did change the pension system after I left, freezing the defined benefit plan and switching new employees and new money to defined contribution. The change did not affect my pension. But if the worst happens, I think I can get by with a reduced benefit from Pension Guarantee system.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
I had to chuckle at the title of the thread. That has always been the way I described myself. I always saved - a lot. But, I made a lot of investment mistakes. The good news is that one mistake - eventually having nearly 80% of my net worth in one single (my Megacorp) stock is the reason I got to retire early. The stock went to the moon - I dumped most of it - then it tanked. So, I don't recommend that even though it worked for me.

re: Freezing. Kind of describes me. Took me a long time to call VG. But, I'm glad I did. They are relatively easy to work with and don't seem to mind holding your hand when you need it. Naturally, they won't offer too much advice (they aren't allowed to on any tax issues, for instance) but you can bounce ideas off of them and they can direct you to other sources to check out your strategies for yourself.

One suggestion (not advice) for OP: Consider taking your "winnings" out of your $300K house. Consider renting or (I would say, preferably) buying a lower cost house in a lower cost area. Obviously, if OP loves the house/area, s/he could use this as a back-up in the future. 30% NW in a house seems high and probably leads to higher expenses (maintenance, taxes, etc.) Of course, if OP considers the value of pension and SS, then the house is no longer 30% of NW. This can be a philosophical as well as financial question. Just saying how I would look at it since I don't include my dwelling in my NW for most purposes.

One other suggestion for OP. Check out the pension and be certain it is rock solid. If not, be certain the Pension Guarantee system will cover the whole thing if need be. Probably not an issue, but just sayin'.... Oh, and YMMV.
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Old 02-28-2012, 03:50 PM   #12
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MasterBlaster - I wasn't aware of the greater 401K immunity or the potentially lower expense ratio for institutional funds in a 401K. You were right. The Pimco Total Return expense ratio would go from .46 to .75 if I go the IRA route. Thanks for the heads up on this issue.
I just finished a 401k rollover. And while it is true, I had access to institutional funds at rock bottom ER's, looking at which I funds I wanted to invest in, I found my expenses actually decreased b/c of the the different funds available through an IRA. In other words, fund availability was lacking. The IRA offered me the flexibility to pick the funds I wanted at sometimes marginally higher ER and sometimes entirely different funds with significantly lower ER's. Would you use that Pimco fund if you could choose any fidelity offered and would it have a lower ER than instl Pimco?
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Old 02-28-2012, 04:34 PM   #13
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Looking over my 401K literature. We have access (for example) to an institutional bond index fund with an expense ratio of 0.03 and a stock index S&P500 index at 0.01 ER.

They have some managed funds with ER's at 0.3-0.65 (or so). Managed international funds are a little higher.

Those ER's are hard to beat in an IRA.
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Old 02-28-2012, 04:45 PM   #14
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My mega-corp pension (also non-COLA) is exactly the same. Half the amount at 55 versus 65. It's been a while since I checked, but the actuarial calculation seems to make that a wash for them, which is what I'd expect. What interest would they have in making one more advantageous than the other?


I didn't go through all the numbers, but I don't understand the OP's reluctance to taking that pension early. $31K/year solves 31/45ths of the problem, would only need to pull $14K per year until SS kicks in.



-ERD50
Good to know that they are actuarially the same. I am use to seeing public employee pension were the reduction is smaller, and typically you are better off taking them early. It makes sense that private pension plan would be a wash.

Another benefit to taking the pension early is that you'll save money on taxes. Right now with the very low interest rates your income is tiny a few thousand then it jumps when you turn 65 to around $90K. A very rough estimate is that with 45,000 income you'll owe about 5K at 90K (62K pension 3k interest 25K SS) you'll owe 16,500. (odds are your actual taxes will be a bit lower) So you save $6,500 by spreading the income out over two years.
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Old 02-28-2012, 04:59 PM   #15
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My last question is... is there any real benefit to moving from Fidelity to Vanguard.
I'd decide exactly what assets I wanted to hold, and then compare the two. I started with Fidelity when I held individual stocks and actively managed mutual funds (from the Peter Lynch era). Once I moved to low expense ratio index funds almost exclusively, Vanguard had way more and better choices (I don't know if that's still true or not). Fidelity provided more hand holding personal service than Vanguard, but I wasn't using their services anyway. They are both reputable firms - as much as I like Vanguard, I wouldn't move without the investments themselves driving the decision. YMMV
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Old 02-28-2012, 05:14 PM   #16
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Looking over my 401K literature. We have access (for example) to an institutional bond index fund with an expense ratio of 0.03 and a stock index S&P500 index at 0.01 ER.

They have some managed funds with ER's at 0.3-0.65 (or so). Managed international funds are a little higher.

Those ER's are hard to beat in an IRA.
I had some extremely low ER's as well. My analysis for the entire 401k showed I was better off rolling over (especially since all my small cap and international funds were actively managed). Certainly, not the case for everyone. Just cautioning to look over the entire portfolio instead of getting caught up in what could be a few low ER options and as in my case, more higher ER options.

Not sure if you can do a partial rollover....?
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Old 02-28-2012, 07:23 PM   #17
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My 401(k) has a good Stable Value fund at a decent ER. Also, 401(k)s are less prone to forfeiture in civil proceedings. So, I keep about half my stash in my old Megacorp's 401(k). They may offer a way to convert assets to Roth, but I don't have any specifics yet. Sounds like a good idea if there are no "gotchas".

re: Fidelity vs Vanguard. Only know about VG specifically. They SEEM much smaller than they are when I deal with them. I can always talk to a human. They are not perfect, but who is. I have heard GOOD things about Fidelity here and elsewhere. I would have no reservations working with them - especially if VG changed something I didn't like. I'd go with the best ER funds at either one.

YMMV
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Old 02-28-2012, 10:05 PM   #18
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......My last question is... is there any real benefit to moving from Fidelity to Vanguard? ......
Fidelity is in business to make profits for its shareholders. Vanguard is owned by the funds (sort of like a co-op or a mutual bank or insurance company) and ostensibly operates for the benefit of its fundholders. I have always found that unique aspect of Vanguard interesting.

At the end of the day though they are both fine companies to do business with and are well regarded.
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:48 AM   #19
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One item you may want to check - Verizon is implementing a 401K plan change to allow conversions from traditional 401K to Roth 401K, so I would be able to convert to Roth without leaving my 401K. I will move mine to IRA because I want other investment options but if you are happy with the investment options and want to keep your 401K, check with your administrator if they are moving to allow conversions to Roth.
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Old 03-01-2012, 03:05 PM   #20
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Thanks! I checked and my plan doesn't have that option. Too bad, because Roth conversions are the biggest reason I'm considering transferring the 401K $ to an IRA.


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One item you may want to check - Verizon is implementing a 401K plan change to allow conversions from traditional 401K to Roth 401K, so I would be able to convert to Roth without leaving my 401K. I will move mine to IRA because I want other investment options but if you are happy with the investment options and want to keep your 401K, check with your administrator if they are moving to allow conversions to Roth.
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