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Old 04-19-2008, 01:32 PM   #21
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Definitely. The good thing is that it takes a while for people to forget. Let's see: early 90s debacle, then 1998/2001 bubble pop, now 2008. Looks like it takes 6 to 10 years for people to forget and start doing dumb things again. I'd say that whoever is still in one piece by the end of the year will be set up for a good run. But make a note to buy a pile of puts starting in 2014 or so...
It does seem like the bubble cycle is shorter then in the past. IIRC from "A Random Walk" they happened in the past about once a generation. I guess we have shorter memories now and our power of denial (This time it's different) is stronger then in times past.

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Old 04-19-2008, 03:32 PM   #22
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Back when I was "important" (ie. before I got told how really unimportant I was when I was sacked), our business had a history of 8 year cycles -- peak to peak. We had followed these cycles +/- 1 year for 4 prior cycles. I got laid off in early 2002 and it was pretty close to the depths of despair. I would say that hit in 2003. That would put the next down cycle to be in 2011 but we should all feel the pain around 2009 - 2010.

Amazingly, this would just about coincide with the "next great depression" Harry Dent has been trumpeting to begin in 2010. Delving into his tea leaves is a subject for another thread.

On the plus side, we should have a strong up market between now and around the middle of 2009. Harry's latest forecast is Dow 16,000 which is a far cry below his original Dow 30,000 he was hyping in 2000. I wouldn't hold either of his predictions as the time to get out but we should have a good run. I see Dow 16,000 as a reasonable upside. A 25 to 30% bull run over a 12 to 16 month period is not a big deal from an historical perspective.
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Old 04-19-2008, 03:45 PM   #23
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As long as the FED keeps on bailing out the market whenever it starts to flounder, there is a chance that we might have a strong bull run for awhile.
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Old 04-21-2008, 01:42 AM   #24
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...there is a chance that we might have a strong bull run for awhile.
The lady who cuts my hair certainly thinks so. (Please don't take this as a bearish comment): I think it was Nords who recently quipped that if your barber or cab driver starts talking stocks.... She's studying to become a citizen and managed to buy her own shop about a year ago. She's planning no vacations, doesn't want to go any where as she's too busy paying attention to her stocks. Apparently she's buying short, investing on the computer. Plans to take the money she makes from investments and buy a house and go on and on from there. She would fit right in on this forum. I asked how she learned about investing. (I couldn't understand the words she used, as her English is somewhat broken) but apparently a financial planner got a hold of her and offered a deal where the FP would take ten percent. At that point her English got very clear and expressive, "no way, I will learn it myself." Yes, she agrees, last week was a very good one.
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Old 04-23-2008, 07:49 PM   #25
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Back when I was "important" (ie. before I got told how really unimportant I was when I was sacked), our business had a history of 8 year cycles -- peak to peak. We had followed these cycles +/- 1 year for 4 prior cycles. I got laid off in early 2002 and it was pretty close to the depths of despair. I would say that hit in 2003. That would put the next down cycle to be in 2011 but we should all feel the pain around 2009 - 2010.

Amazingly, this would just about coincide with the "next great depression" Harry Dent has been trumpeting to begin in 2010. Delving into his tea leaves is a subject for another thread.

On the plus side, we should have a strong up market between now and around the middle of 2009. Harry's latest forecast is Dow 16,000 which is a far cry below his original Dow 30,000 he was hyping in 2000. I wouldn't hold either of his predictions as the time to get out but we should have a good run. I see Dow 16,000 as a reasonable upside. A 25 to 30% bull run over a 12 to 16 month period is not a big deal from an historical perspective.
harry dent is part of the elliot wave cult

while back he said that instead of Dow 30000 by 2009, the money instead went into commodities and housing. if you look back, the current commodity boom started around 1996 when oil hit it's lowest point. by 1998 the smart old timers who had 1970's experience would probably have guessed that things were going the same way
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