Good week in the markets

DblDoc

DblDoc

Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
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1,224
Well after a week of doom and gloom threads this was certainly a good week to be in the markets for those of us still accumulating, and those already retired!

You all have a good weekend!

DD
 
Easy come, easy go. Monday they well be down again. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride my friend.
 
Dawg52 said:
I only enjoy the ride going up. :)
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It's even more fun when there's a giddy ride up just before the weekend! Then we have all weekend to enjoy and to hope (however unrealistically) for even more next week. :D
 
What am I smelling optimism in this thread?! You mean the world isnt ending? Bah :duh:
 
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported a steep quarterly loss and took around $13 billion in writedowns, at least half of which were related to subprime-related exposure. Citi also said it will cut about 9,000 jobs. However, the company's quarterly revenue was higher than analysts were expecting, and shares jumped 4.5%.

:rolleyes:
 
Notmuchlonger said:
What am I smelling optimism in this thread?! You mean the world isnt ending? Bah :duh:
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They say "What goes up, must come down". Could the opposite be true, as well? :D

I guess one alternative to markets heading up (as well as down) now and then, is for the Dow to plunge to 0 and then stay firmly at 0 day after day, week after week, year after year, for the infinite future. Now THAT would make CNBC more boring than it already is! :cool:
 
Well, we have tested the lows a couple of times this year right...looks like the "credit crisis" has been solved and now on to the "energy and food inflation crisis"...:p Maybe the market is pricing in an oil bubble...I put a large portion of my annual investment allocation to work in the first quarter...
 
Razor said:
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported a steep quarterly loss and took around $13 billion in writedowns, at least half of which were related to subprime-related exposure. Citi also said it will cut about 9,000 jobs. However, the company's quarterly revenue was higher than analysts were expecting, and shares jumped 4.5%.:rolleyes:
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They're going to cut jobs, cut costs and raise standards. It's obviously what people with money burning holes in their pockets were wanting to hear. This may be what the doctor ordered, but I would be worried that it's more a case of a morning after prayer: "Oh, God, please let me get through this and I swear I'll never act like an idiot ever again." All too often that sort of religion goes away after the scary times pass.
 
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Leonidas said:
All too often that sort of religion goes away after the scary times pass.
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Definitely. The good thing is that it takes a while for people to forget. Let's see: early 90s debacle, then 1998/2001 bubble pop, now 2008. Looks like it takes 6 to 10 years for people to forget and start doing dumb things again. I'd say that whoever is still in one piece by the end of the year will be set up for a good run. But make a note to buy a pile of puts starting in 2014 or so...
 
2012 is end, that is when the mayan calendar ends and it's the name of a Rush album
 
brewer12345 said:
Definitely. The good thing is that it takes a while for people to forget. Let's see: early 90s debacle, then 1998/2001 bubble pop, now 2008. Looks like it takes 6 to 10 years for people to forget and start doing dumb things again. I'd say that whoever is still in one piece by the end of the year will be set up for a good run. But make a note to buy a pile of puts starting in 2014 or so...
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Having been a MegaCorp employee for more than 30 years, I don't know if it's so much they forget as there are new people in charge every 6 to 10 years anxious to do dumb things for their first time. The people who were in charge and would know better, departed in shame after the last debacle --- although their golden parachutes made the shame more than worthwhile.
 
Midpack said:
Having been a MegaCorp employee for more than 30 years, I don't know if it's so much they forget as there are new people in charge every 6 to 10 years anxious to do dumb things for their first time. The people who were in charge and would know better, departed in shame after the last debacle --- although their golden parachutes made the shame more than worthwhile.
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I think the 7 year itch applies to investment as much as mortgages.

Personally, I was rooting for a stock sale back in Dec and Jan. By Feb I was getting a bit tired of having buyer regret. So it was nice to see they take the 20% sale signs down this week
 
Leonidas said:
They're going to cut jobs, cut costs and raise standards. It's obviously what people with money burning holes in their pockets were wanting to hear. This may be what the doctor ordered, but I would be worried that it's more a case of a morning after prayer: "Oh, God, please let me get through this and I swear I'll never act like an idiot ever again." All too often that sort of religion goes away after the scary times pass.
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You are probably right. It's just that I didn't see any good news that would boost the stock almost 5% in one day. Now maybe if it read like this:

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported a steep quarterly gain and took in around $13 billion in new business, at least half of which were related to solid accounts. Citi also said it will add about 9,000 jobs. However, the company's quarterly revenue was even higher than analysts were expecting, and shares jumped 4.5%.
 
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brewer12345 said:
Definitely. The good thing is that it takes a while for people to forget. Let's see: early 90s debacle, then 1998/2001 bubble pop, now 2008. Looks like it takes 6 to 10 years for people to forget and start doing dumb things again. I'd say that whoever is still in one piece by the end of the year will be set up for a good run. But make a note to buy a pile of puts starting in 2014 or so...
Click to expand...

It does seem like the bubble cycle is shorter then in the past. IIRC from "A Random Walk" they happened in the past about once a generation. I guess we have shorter memories now and our power of denial (This time it's different:eek:) is stronger then in times past.:duh:

DD
 
Back when I was "important" (ie. before I got told how really unimportant I was when I was sacked), our business had a history of 8 year cycles -- peak to peak. We had followed these cycles +/- 1 year for 4 prior cycles. I got laid off in early 2002 and it was pretty close to the depths of despair. I would say that hit in 2003. That would put the next down cycle to be in 2011 but we should all feel the pain around 2009 - 2010.

Amazingly, this would just about coincide with the "next great depression" Harry Dent has been trumpeting to begin in 2010. Delving into his tea leaves is a subject for another thread.

On the plus side, we should have a strong up market between now and around the middle of 2009. Harry's latest forecast is Dow 16,000 which is a far cry below his original Dow 30,000 he was hyping in 2000. I wouldn't hold either of his predictions as the time to get out but we should have a good run. I see Dow 16,000 as a reasonable upside. A 25 to 30% bull run over a 12 to 16 month period is not a big deal from an historical perspective.
 
As long as the FED keeps on bailing out the market whenever it starts to flounder, there is a chance that we might have a strong bull run for awhile.
 
Razor said:
...there is a chance that we might have a strong bull run for awhile.
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The lady who cuts my hair certainly thinks so. (Please don't take this as a bearish comment): I think it was Nords who recently quipped that if your barber or cab driver starts talking stocks.... She's studying to become a citizen and managed to buy her own shop about a year ago. She's planning no vacations, doesn't want to go any where as she's too busy paying attention to her stocks. Apparently she's buying short, investing on the computer. Plans to take the money she makes from investments and buy a house and go on and on from there. She would fit right in on this forum. I asked how she learned about investing. (I couldn't understand the words she used, as her English is somewhat broken) but apparently a financial planner got a hold of her and offered a deal where the FP would take ten percent. At that point her English got very clear and expressive, "no way, I will learn it myself." Yes, she agrees, last week was a very good one.
 
2B said:
Back when I was "important" (ie. before I got told how really unimportant I was when I was sacked), our business had a history of 8 year cycles -- peak to peak. We had followed these cycles +/- 1 year for 4 prior cycles. I got laid off in early 2002 and it was pretty close to the depths of despair. I would say that hit in 2003. That would put the next down cycle to be in 2011 but we should all feel the pain around 2009 - 2010.

Amazingly, this would just about coincide with the "next great depression" Harry Dent has been trumpeting to begin in 2010. Delving into his tea leaves is a subject for another thread.

On the plus side, we should have a strong up market between now and around the middle of 2009. Harry's latest forecast is Dow 16,000 which is a far cry below his original Dow 30,000 he was hyping in 2000. I wouldn't hold either of his predictions as the time to get out but we should have a good run. I see Dow 16,000 as a reasonable upside. A 25 to 30% bull run over a 12 to 16 month period is not a big deal from an historical perspective.
Click to expand...

harry dent is part of the elliot wave cult

while back he said that instead of Dow 30000 by 2009, the money instead went into commodities and housing. if you look back, the current commodity boom started around 1996 when oil hit it's lowest point. by 1998 the smart old timers who had 1970's experience would probably have guessed that things were going the same way
 
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