Greenspan is either suffering from senility, or is a dolt.......

The lesson is that even honest ideologues, who can't see the limits on their ideologies, are going to be wrong.
Absolutely! Very well said.

Greenspan was shocked, because his most strongly held belief, that financial companies would self-police, was proven wrong.

I think you can definitely say that Greenspan was incredibly naive. Unforunately, naivety is not a good characteristic for someone assigned to oversee financial markets.

You'd think that the LTCM rescue would have been a clear enough warning shot. But - unfortunately - not!

Audrey
 
What I don't understand is why is Greenspan so surprised that GREED exists?

Isn't greed a human nature? That is why we need to have rules and regulations to prevent greedy CEOs from stealing, cheating and lying to the stock holders.

Why is it so tough understand?
 
What was completely forgotten about the lessons of unfettered capitalism is that ultimately greed trumps prudence.

Audrey

Very well said. Idealism of any type, not tempered by healthy skepticism and an understanding of basic human nature, will usually lead to bad results. That applies to both ends of the ideological spectrum.

FOA, thanks for answering this so well. I added the bold to what I see as key:

There's nothing wrong with the free market approach. The problems arose because when the government allowed banks to give credit to whoever they want to they also guaranteed a return on that money because Freddie and Fanny bought up half of the mortgages in the united states. It basically removed any negative results from affecting the primary lender if the homeowner decided not to pay; because by that time they have already sold off the loan to F&F.

Freemarket Capitalism requires two things, freedom from restrictions and responsibility for actions. The very idea of corporate personhood is very anti-free market because no person is responsible for the mistakes a company makes, only the company name is responsible. All the CEOs and Board of Directors just take their millions of dollars and go find another job.

I'll put another spin on it also. Greed is a constant. It has always been around, and always will be around. Capitalism keeps greed in check just fine, or it never would have worked at all. It is competition in the free market that keeps greed in check, and the reason that a simple wooden pencil does not cost $50. Because that is what greedy people would charge. But they can't get it in a free market. So they don't. But they would if they could. You would too ("you" meaning just about everybody).

Two areas requiring regulation: "Tragedy of the Commons" areas, and areas of poor transparency. I prefer that steps be taken to increase the transparency first. If the market is not free, steps maybe need to be taken to try to make it free. IMO, that would be far better than trying to regulate it.

-ERD50
 
What I don't understand is why is Greenspan so surprised that GREED exists?

Isn't greed a human nature? That is why we need to have rules and regulations to prevent greedy CEOs from stealing, cheating and lying to the stock holders.

Why is it so tough understand?

So explain to me why simple pencils are not $50. The #2 pencil market is not regulated.

-ERD50
 
Cause if you were selling it for $50, I'd sell it for $49. Someone else would sell it for $48, and so on, until we reached the lowest selling price that someone could manufacture it for.
 
Cause if you were selling it for $50, I'd sell it for $49. Someone else would sell it for $48, and so on, until we reached the lowest selling price that someone could manufacture it for.

Unfortunately competition amongst businesses is not a problem. The real problem here is a CEO sold only 10 #2 pencils but he cooked the book and show investors that he sold 1000 pencils instead.

We need to promote true competions but we also need to make sure that competition is fair and balance.
 
Two areas requiring regulation: "Tragedy of the Commons" areas, and areas of poor transparency. I prefer that steps be taken to increase the transparency first. If the market is not free, steps maybe need to be taken to try to make it free. IMO, that would be far better than trying to regulate it.
-ERD50

Let me try to see if I understand your terms. I'll use a non-financial firm.
Suppose a chemical company is building a plant. They understand that an accident at the plant could cause $100 million in damage to equipment, lost business, and workers' comp claims. They've given the CEO two options to improve plant safety. They can do either, both, or neither.
Option A reduces the chance of a $100 million accident by 1%. Option A costs $1 million.
Option B reduces the chance of a $100 million accident by another 1%. Option B costs $10 million.

If the CEO is only concerned about his own bonus, and doesn't care about the shareholders, he might do neither. This increases today's bottom line. If an accident occurs, it may be after he retires. Or, even if he is blamed, he still leaves with his golden parachute. Is this a "transparency" problem?

If the CEO also cares about the stockholders, he will do A but not B. The expected value of both is $1 million in reduced losses, but B costs $10 million.

However, the plant is located in a populated area. An accident will do $100 million damage to the chemical company, but $1 billion damage to the neighbors. Maybe the plant is located in a country where the neighbors can't sue the company, or the company financially walls off just this plant from its other operations. Now, the CEO will approve both A and B if he is concerned about the neighbors as well as the stockholders. If he doesn't care about the neighbors, he doesn't do B. Is this a "tragedy of the commons" problem?
 
Unfortunately competition amongst businesses is not a problem. The real problem here is a CEO sold only 10 #2 pencils but he cooked the book and show investors that he sold 1000 pencils instead.

We need to promote true competions but we also need to make sure that competition is fair and balance.

Well, cooking the books is already against the law. So why would *another* law improve things?

I think FoA captured the real problem quite well in the post I quoted earlier. I'll bold the line, and add "<single> for a bit of added clarity (IMO):

The very idea of corporate personhood is very anti-free market because no <single> person is responsible for the mistakes a company makes, only the company name is responsible. All the CEOs and Board of Directors just take their millions of dollars and go find another job.



Let me try to see if I understand your terms. I'll use a non-financial firm.
Suppose a chemical company is building a plant. They understand that an accident at the plant could cause $100 million in damage to equipment, lost business, and workers' comp claims. They've given the CEO two options to improve plant safety. They can do either, both, or neither.
Option A reduces the chance of a $100 million accident by 1%. Option A costs $1 million.
Option B reduces the chance of a $100 million accident by another 1%. Option B costs $10 million.

If the CEO is only concerned about his own bonus, and doesn't care about the shareholders, he might do neither. This increases today's bottom line. If an accident occurs, it may be after he retires. Or, even if he is blamed, he still leaves with his golden parachute. Is this a "transparency" problem?

If the CEO also cares about the stockholders, he will do A but not B. The expected value of both is $1 million in reduced losses, but B costs $10 million.

However, the plant is located in a populated area. An accident will do $100 million damage to the chemical company, but $1 billion damage to the neighbors. Maybe the plant is located in a country where the neighbors can't sue the company, or the company financially walls off just this plant from its other operations. Now, the CEO will approve both A and B if he is concerned about the neighbors as well as the stockholders. If he doesn't care about the neighbors, he doesn't do B. Is this a "tragedy of the commons" problem?

Well, I think FoA's comments apply here as well. The CEO really can take a short term view, and that may mean gambling on long term risks. Not good. BTW, I do think that something is wrong with the current CEO/BOD relationship in many companies. I don't think it is as free a market as it could/should be.

I'm not certain this situation fits the "Tragedy of the Commons" exactly, it might - I'd need to read up a bit more. I think it can be viewed that way - as the neighborhood is a "common area", but the company does not have to pay the neighbors for the risk that they are being put in, so it does seem to fit that description of " take what you need, it's free to all". So at least, transparency is needed, the company has to be forced to produce records that describe the dangers and what they are doing to contain them.

Now IMO, if an industry is smart - they will set up their own standards. If companies meet those standards (and are audited if needed) they get to show that with a certificate of some sort. And, if the industry runs that program effectively, the public is happy, and they can totally avoid govt intervention. If they don't, then they are going to get govt involvement. What's best - do your own policing, in a manner that probably will be more effective and less bureaucratic than what the govt would do, or "contract out" that job to the govt.

Come to think of it, many shareholders are more interested in the long term health of a company than the CEOs, who may only be there a few years. Kinda funny, ain't it?

-ERD50
 
It is amazing -- just a few short years ago he was so highly respected and trusted. Almost financial god status.

We're fickle.

Coach

I was not smart enough at the time (or now), to know whether he was doing the right thing at the time, overall. One thing DID stand out, and it bothered me. He spoke of "irrational exuberance", yet, he kept margin requirements at 50% instead of raising them (slowly, maybe even grandfathering current positions).

That seemed inconsistent to me, and it made me wonder about the guy.

-ERD50
 
It is amazing -- just a few short years ago he was so highly respected and trusted. Almost financial god status.

We're fickle.

I would imagine that a lot of people are very angry about this economic collapse, and are looking for a whipping boy.

Greenspan, being in his 80's, obligingly stepped right up to the plate. I don't think he's such a demon and I still respect and trust the man. Boy, is that an un-PC thing to say right now! :2funny:
 
Absolutely! Very well said.

Greenspan was shocked, because his most strongly held belief, that financial companies would self-police, was proven wrong.

I think you can definitely say that Greenspan was incredibly naive. Unforunately, naivety is not a good characteristic for someone assigned to oversee financial markets.

You'd think that the LTCM rescue would have been a clear enough warning shot. But - unfortunately - not!
Audrey

Audrey, I don't mean this as a personal attack, but YOU and many of the posters on this board are the ones that are naive.

No one makes it to the upper ranks of power in any society by being lambs.
Politics and the accompanying bureaucracy is a dirty, vicious game. Only the clever, connected, and most cut-throat make it to the top. Greenspan believed what he wanted to believe to achieve and hold power and wealth.
He's no idealist, anymore than a Stalin, Hitler, Kennedy or Gandhi was. He is a hardcore, facile realist.

Nice guys have little chance in the major league area that a Fed chairman inhabits. While few people actively want to do evil, many are willing to do it or ignore it in others if that is what is necessary to advance one's own standing.

Alan Greenspan knew exactly what was going on. He still does. Part of his game is to play off of the sympathies of people with honest natures who can't understand his type. He is, as his predecessor was and successor will be, an amoral creature looking out for "chairman number one".

It made him a superstar.

It is making us destitute.

The main stream media was an eager accomplice and is now paying a heavy price.
 
The main stream media was an eager accomplice and is now paying a heavy price.

Certainly not in proportion to the damage they did (through negligence). The worse the news gets, the more people tune in to hear about the latest calamity. When things get still worse, they'll take solace in escapist entertainment from Hollywood. Maybe their ad rates will go down a bit during the recession, but they won't starve.
 
He's no idealist, anymore than a Stalin, Hitler, Kennedy or Gandhi was. He is a hardcore, facile realist.

Alan Greenspan knew exactly what was going on. He still does. Part of his game is to play off of the sympathies of people with honest natures who can't understand his type. He is, as his predecessor was and successor will be, an amoral creature looking out for "chairman number one".
Wow - you really DO believe that he is lying instead of belatedly discovering that companies will not, in fact, self-police!

So you think Greenspan deliberately discouraged Congress/President etc. from reigning in any of the newfangled financial instruments and excessive risk-taking even though he knew companies would use such instruments/risk-taking irresponsibly and ultimately threaten the global financial system?

Was he also lying when he said he now thought more regulation was needed? Why would he lie about that?

Audrey
 
He had a clear opportunity to lay the blame back on the hearing chairman (Waxman I think) and and his cohorts and clearly blew it. He gave them exactly what they wanted "My mistake" (and without saying it, I will save your a**es from ridicule or worse). What did he have to lose over the truth? He is 82 years old, financially secure, and can go off into the sunset happily, with his "trophy wife".
 
I have to add that I was very shocked that Greenspan was "shocked" that companies did what they did and actually admitted that he was shocked. (That is if you believe his testimony was honest).

Audrey
 
Well, I think FoA's comments apply here as well. The CEO really can take a short term view, and that may mean gambling on long term risks. Not good. BTW, I do think that something is wrong with the current CEO/BOD relationship in many companies. I don't think it is as free a market as it could/should be.

I'm not certain this situation fits the "Tragedy of the Commons" exactly, it might - I'd need to read up a bit more. I think it can be viewed that way - as the neighborhood is a "common area", but the company does not have to pay the neighbors for the risk that they are being put in, so it does seem to fit that description of " take what you need, it's free to all". So at least, transparency is needed, the company has to be forced to produce records that describe the dangers and what they are doing to contain them.

Now IMO, if an industry is smart - they will set up their own standards. If companies meet those standards (and are audited if needed) they get to show that with a certificate of some sort. And, if the industry runs that program effectively, the public is happy, and they can totally avoid govt intervention. If they don't, then they are going to get govt involvement. What's best - do your own policing, in a manner that probably will be more effective and less bureaucratic than what the govt would do, or "contract out" that job to the govt.

-ERD50

Okay, I think I've got the vocabulary right.

I'm thinking here that "transparency" is always good, but it doesn't solve the whole problem. If the company is making a good decision for its stockholders, wouldn't it continue that decision even after it told its neighbors that it is putting them at risk?

The reason I'm going this direction is that I think this is an issue in regulating financial institutions. Suppose that well-informed bank stockholders are comfortable with the company increasing leverage to increase ROE. The stockholders know there is a risk, but the risk/reward balance says it's a good decision for them. But the rest of us are at risk of a "complete meltdown of the financial system" - a loss that far exceeds anything an individual company loses.

This is the problem with Greenspan's idea that the rest of us could rely on the self-preservation instincts of private companies to keep the system functioning. They do the calculation using only their own risk/reward, the rest of us take an additional risk that doesn't get into their calculations.
 
What really amazed me (continuing from my "I'm shocked" post above), was Greenspan's language to Congress where he confessed that he had a "[fatal?] flaw in my model" which was that "a company would never do that [take way excessive risk] to their shareholders".

Wow!

Audrey
 
The reason I'm going this direction is that I think this is an issue in regulating financial institutions. Suppose that well-informed bank stockholders are comfortable with the company increasing leverage to increase ROE. The stockholders know there is a risk, but the risk/reward balance says it's a good decision for them. But the rest of us are at risk of a "complete meltdown of the financial system" - a loss that far exceeds anything an individual company loses.

This is the problem with Greenspan's idea that the rest of us could rely on the self-preservation instincts of private companies to keep the system functioning. They do the calculation using only their own risk/reward, the rest of us take an additional risk that doesn't get into their calculations.

Yes, this is a very good point! They completely discounted the unwanted risk that the public assumed unwillingly. This attitude is rampant throughout our society among power stakeholders. Think about the decisions that corporate executives make when not adequately funding their company's pension funds and cities that make pension/health care promises to civil employees that can never be fufilled through city coffers or taxation. Our congress which passed the medicare prescription drug plan which greatly increased the cost of medicare, now in danger of running out of funds.

These people in power often do what is expedient without weighing the costs, short and long term. I think our entire society is wanting in that regard. And it is a failure of our ethical culture, I think. Something not easily changed without a big wake up call. Unfortunately, that is very painful.
 
RE: transparency vs regulation ...

Okay, I think I've got the vocabulary right.

I'm thinking here that "transparency" is always good, but it doesn't solve the whole problem. If the company is making a good decision for its stockholders, wouldn't it continue that decision even after it told its neighbors that it is putting them at risk?

Yes, the company would likely try to do that, but with the transparency there, the neighbors (and their appointed officials) should be challenging the company, and saying they can't do that. So yes, this could come back to the community threatening to set regulations, which could be required in a "tragedy of the Commons" situation. I'm still thinking that this is best served by the industry itself. They could say - "here are the safety standards we use when there are residential units within X feet of our facility. We exceed all these standards, and have been audited by independent parties to verify that. You can hire an auditor, and we will pay the fee." If the industry has been conservative with this approach, the neighberhood should be satisfied. I'm guessing that approach could generally be better than leaving it to legislative bodies to determine.

However, this is a long term view. In the short term, it might be 'best' for the company to try to get away with it. I think this plays into FoA's comments on short term CEOs running long term companies.


The reason I'm going this direction is that I think this is an issue in regulating financial institutions. Suppose that well-informed bank stockholders are comfortable with the company increasing leverage to increase ROE. The stockholders know there is a risk, but the risk/reward balance says it's a good decision for them. But the rest of us are at risk of a "complete meltdown of the financial system" - a loss that far exceeds anything an individual company loses.
Yes, but if we have transparency - who wants to do business with a bank with a poor rating? So THAT will affect the shareholders.

Some of this recent talk about companies that are "too big to let fail", because they take so much down with them concerns me. I am thinking that the govt should get in and take action before a company can get so big and have so much impact. It's tough to say what would trigger that, and what the action should be, but it does frighten me that a single company or industry can hurt so many out side that company/industry.


Yes, this is a very good point! They completely discounted the unwanted risk that the public assumed unwillingly. This attitude is rampant throughout our society among power stakeholders. Think about the decisions that corporate executives make when not adequately funding their company's pension funds and cities that make pension/health care promises to civil employees that can never be fufilled through city coffers or taxation. Our congress which passed the medicare prescription drug plan which greatly increased the cost of medicare, now in danger of running out of funds.

These people in power often do what is expedient without weighing the costs, short and long term. I think our entire society is wanting in that regard. And it is a failure of our ethical culture, I think. Something not easily changed without a big wake up call. Unfortunately, that is very painful.

Well said. I think this is playing into the "tragedy of the Commons" thing again. So many people want something from the govt, and want to let the "other guy" pay for it. An individual can take more than their share, but if a majority take more than their share, it falls apart.

I still think the solution is education. We need to somehow make the majority aware that, for example, not everyone can benefit from an insurance program (which is really what a lot of these govt programs are). Everyone pays, and everyone (on average) loses. But some people are saved from an extreme problem, so (on average) we decide that is worth the cost. But it seems like too many people think that *everybody* should benefit - hey, the govt will pay for it!".

-ERD50
 
But it seems like too many people think that *everybody* should benefit - hey, the govt will pay for it!".

I agree, but it's not the Government that pays. They're just redistributing the taxpayer's (those who actually pay fed income taxes) money.

From my perspective, it seems to be getting worse...a higher % of "victims every year that need the tax payer's (aka..Gov) assistance.

End of rant... I'm off the play 27 holes and kill some golfs:D
 
From my perspective, it seems to be getting worse...a higher % of "victims every year that need the tax payer's (aka..Gov) assistance.
Yep. Like my signature says, if everyone else getting mauled by declining asset values gets a bailout, why not my 401K?
 
I agree, but it's not the Government that pays. They're just redistributing the taxpayer's (those who actually pay fed income taxes) money.

From my perspective, it seems to be getting worse...a higher % of "victims every year that need the tax payer's (aka..Gov) assistance.



exactly. That's why I said, when the majority want more than they put in, it all falls apart. The math doesn't work. But people will still want to get in line ahead of the other guy, before it all runs out.

-ERD50
 
Yes, the company would likely try to do that, but with the transparency there, the neighbors (and their appointed officials) should be challenging the company, and saying they can't do that. So yes, this could come back to the community threatening to set regulations, which could be required in a "tragedy of the Commons" situation. I'm still thinking that this is best served by the industry itself. They could say - "here are the safety standards we use when there are residential units within X feet of our facility. We exceed all these standards, and have been audited by independent parties to verify that. You can hire an auditor, and we will pay the fee." If the industry has been conservative with this approach, the neighberhood should be satisfied. I'm guessing that approach could generally be better than leaving it to legislative bodies to determine.

However, this is a long term view. In the short term, it might be 'best' for the company to try to get away with it. I think this plays into FoA's comments on short term CEOs running long term companies.

I'm not a natural fan of regulation. Some of my toughest days at work have been dealing with regulators. I'd like to believe this works, but I have trouble seeing the incentives. I don't know why the industry wants to be transparent about tragedy of the commons issues, or what keeps one company from cheating.

Yes, but if we have transparency - who wants to do business with a bank with a poor rating? So THAT will affect the shareholders.

First, we have to figure out where we get the transparency. But we also have trouble with the commons. Your argument seems similar to Greenspan's. The bank will operate in its own best interests, and that will be enough protection for the common good. It appears that financial institutions are willing to take risks that are acceptable to the stockholders, but not acceptable to the common good.

Some of this recent talk about companies that are "too big to let fail", because they take so much down with them concerns me. I am thinking that the govt should get in and take action before a company can get so big and have so much impact. It's tough to say what would trigger that, and what the action should be, but it does frighten me that a single company or industry can hurt so many out side that company/industry.

I'm not sure what "action" you are looking for. Maybe it's just using different words -- could it be that you are suggesting something that I would call "regulation"?

Well said. I think this is playing into the "tragedy of the Commons" thing again. So many people want something from the govt, and want to let the "other guy" pay for it. An individual can take more than their share, but if a majority take more than their share, it falls apart.

I still think the solution is education. We need to somehow make the majority aware that, for example, not everyone can benefit from an insurance program (which is really what a lot of these govt programs are). Everyone pays, and everyone (on average) loses. But some people are saved from an extreme problem, so (on average) we decide that is worth the cost. But it seems like too many people think that *everybody* should benefit - hey, the govt will pay for it!".

I'm losing you here. I agree that lots of people want something from the gov't and don't want to pay for it. But I don't see the application in this situation.

I think that the bank regulation we've had has generated costs for all of us. We get less interest on deposits or pay higher interest on loans because the gov't forces banks to hold "adequate" capital. This provided an opportunity for "nonbanks" to compete against banks and appear to provide better value. We now know that the extra value wasn't free, and IMO it probably wasn't worth the cost. But I'm not sure if this connects at all to your comment.
 
exactly. That's why I said, when the majority want more than they put in, it all falls apart. The math doesn't work. But people will still want to get in line ahead of the other guy, before it all runs out.

-ERD50

Unfortunately, the majority CAN demand (and get ) more than they put in. Beause of the way income (largely a proxy for initiative and talent) is distributed, there's a long, thin tail to the right of the graph. These folks will be the bill payers, and there's no natural feedback mechanism in a pure democracy. Thankfully, we don't have a pure democracy, but the closer we get, the worse things will get. The only feedback to an ever increasing spoils system is when the goose stops laying golden eggs: The producers move out of the country, find (less productive) ways to shelter their wealth, or just quit donating their energy and talent for 20 cents on the dollar. The wealth machine grinds to a halt, and the everybody is worse off for a period of a decade or two (while we squabble over more equitable ways to divide up the ever smaller pie). Finally, with luck, a strong leader with good commmunication skills comes along and harnesses the misery, showing people that by letting the talented thrive, we'll all gain. This can take a long time.

"When the people find they can vote themselves money,
that will herald the end of the republic."
- (Variously attributed to Tytler, Franklin. Anonymous)

"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote."
-Anonymous
 
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