Like brewer I like a lot better Port A than Port B.
In any case, I would never ever put 40% in energy at the time, knowing that some big names (not yet CV or XOM) demonstrate that they either are making a top for some time (Total) or that the trend is no longer a friend as it bends (Esso). Same thing in the US for AE, APC, APA, ASPN.OB, ATPG, BHI, BRN, BSIC.OB, BRY, HAWK.O, BJS, BP, BEXP, CWEI, HLX, CPE, CNQ, CFK, LNG, XEC, CRED, DGAS, DNR, DO, EPEX, EAC, ERF, BTU, ENG, EOG, ENT, FPP, FDG, GEOI, GMXR, GPOR.O, CXPO.OB, HAL, HP, THX, IFNY, MPET, MEE, MMR, TMR, MEK, MUR, NBR, NOV (little bear trap ?), NGS, NXY, NE (bear trap ?), OIS, PHX, PKD, PTEN, PGH, PCZ (great short), PZE, PDC, PXC, PWE, PYR, RDC, ROYL, STOSY, SHI, SM (nice short ?), STO (quite ready for a nice short), SGY, FUEL, SUN (what a dive to come), SYNM (cratering), TAGOF.OB, TLM (nice short), TESOF (nice short), TEC, TGE, TRU, TRGL, TGA, UPL (so nice for a short), UNIT (nice short), VLO (such a nice short), WFT, WOC (nice breakdown in June), YPF etc.
Big names are still bullish, but remember that big names always start first when a market takes off and are the last to dive. When they dive your portfolio is already 20/30% down... I did not run stats (I can do it) to get accurate numbers (on how many bull/bear/neutral) as I preferred to have a look at the securities, always better for the "look and feel". I would definitly not put 40% of my assets in that energy market !!!
Funny enough the GICS sectors like .GSPE is bull, .GSPENS gives you a doubt, and .GSPEN is bull, all that indicating that the deterioration is running wide under the surface of the big names having large influence on the indexes. Large ETFs are still Bull as well like XLE, IYE, but OIH is yet not any longer...
Overall, I'm not saying that I would SHORT this market (going short requires more...) but that I would never put a 40% weight in it. BTW, this market suggests that energy prices will either stabilize (no more growth for the sector - neutral) or that they will dive (fundamentals will deteriorate - bear) , all that being probably bullish for the majority of other sectors !
I'm surprised to see (unless it is through the extended mkt index) no exposure to emerging markets where all the growth will come from in the next 10 years ?
Happy investment & trading.