Hindenburg

[ikubak]

I know there has been a lot of press for this "Hindenburg Omen" but this headline and subsequent verbiage caught my eye.

Here is the headline:

The Hindenburg Omen IS Scary, but So Are the Fundamentals

Then, in the article it says: The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987, meaning it's far from infallible but isn't inconsequential either.

I read this and think, oh, Hindenburg Omen, wrong 75% of the time. Nothing to see here, move along people. Now I know our media peeps got to sell ads and all, but if you are going to scare folks, wouldn't you go with something with a slightly better than .250 batting average?

 

[dex]

I read about it, not worth it.

 

[travelover]

Sounds like a bunch of gas.

 

[ziggy29]

This is one thread that's destined to flame out.

 

[Animorph]

Given the number of inputs his formula had, it should have been 100% in back testing.

 

[Onward]

Lots of people talkin', few of them know.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Two takes on this garbage:
1) Jim Cramer
2): (Guess, at 2:38, it's too technical for us pleblians to understand, or for Beck?)
YouTube - Beck: The Hindenburg Omen

 

[MasterBlaster]

This Isn't some Swammi's Prediction, It's just a Stock Market Technical Indicator

I hadn't heard of this one (The Hindenberg Omen) before, so I looked it up on Wikipedia. It's one of those market health indicators.

The Omen is largely based on Norman G. Fosback's High Low Logic Index (HLLI).[1] The value of the HLLI is the lesser of the NYSE new highs or new lows divided by the number of NYSE issues traded, smoothed by an appropriate exponential moving average. The Omen itself is said to have originated with Jim Miekka[2], and the name was suggested by the late Kennedy Gammage.

What it hopes to capture is a percentage of the market making new (52 week) lows. When that or a smoothed version falls below a certain threshold then the Hindenberg trigger is set, meaning that the bottom is about to fall out of the market.

For more indices (and for fun too) check out this website:

MarketGauge by DataView, LLC

click on the chart for any index to see the deatils. Also notice the many mixed signals that the market gives off.

 

[BigNick]

People think the world will end in 2012, too. Oh, the huge manatee!

 

[calmloki]

Two takes on this garbage:
1) Jim Cramer
2): (Guess, at 2:38, it's too technical for us pleblians to understand, or for Beck?)
YouTube - Beck: The Hindenburg Omen

Wowee. Cramer AND Glen Beck AND Faux News. Perfect storm. If only there was someone shilling gold....

 

[HFWR]

Lots of people talkin', few of them know.

+1

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Wasn't today, Oct. 21, supposed to be "the day"?

 

[MasterBlaster]

watch out below !

 

[dex]

The Hidenburg Omen has been confirmed, for the third time, today August 22, 2010. Based on the history of the Omen, there is a 30% probability that a massive crash of the stock market will occur within the next 120 days. This technical indicator taken alone is frightening. But when considered along with the web bot predictions of an "epic event" occurring in November, and the sobering predictions of Pastor Lindsey Williams, the ramifications are extremely dire indeed. May God have mercy and shelter us from what is to come.
RED ALERT. Hindenburg Omen Confirmed: Stock Market Collapse May Be Imminent.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17...confirmed-hindenburg-omen-on-august-20th-2010
There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock
market crash starting sometime over the next four months

 

[haha]

The Hidenburg Omen has been confirmed, for the third time, today August 22, 2010. Based on the history of the Omen, there is a 30% probability that a massive crash of the stock market will occur within the next 120 days. This technical indicator taken alone is frightening. But when considered along with the web bot predictions of an "epic event" occurring in November, and the sobering predictions of Pastor Lindsey Williams, the ramifications are extremely dire indeed. May God have mercy and shelter us from what is to come.
RED ALERT. Hindenburg Omen Confirmed: Stock Market Collapse May Be Imminent.

We Get An Official Confirmed Hindenburg Omen On August 20th, 2010 | Robert McHugh | Safehaven.com
There is a much higher than normal probability of a stock market crash starting sometime over the next four months

I could maybe brush off the Hindenburg, but when I heard Pastor Lindsey Williams was warning, baby I was outta there!

Ha

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Of the last half-dozen or so Hindenberg crashes, if you had cash on the side, and bought equities soon after crash and held on for at least a year or two afterward, wouldn't you have done well? This was true of the Sept 2008-March 2009 crash, and the Oct. 1987 crash. These crashes haven't lasted years, have they? Has anyone done the research?

 

[MasterBlaster]

I could see the Hindenburd Omen being vindicated if the Mortgage fortclosure mess doesn't get resolved. If the mortgage mess severly slows a recovery then I could see stocks falling big time.

It would be a coincidence though as all of the Hindenberg Omen stats didn't include that mortgage foreclosure mess information.

 

[Lisa99]

Quite interesting. The above link takes you to a site that sells gold and silver

 

[audreyh1]

People think the world will end in 2012, too. Oh, the huge manatee!

Good one Nick!

 

[73ss454]

Dex, maybe you'll have a chance to get back into the market again real cheap.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, the market has 1 more day and 1 week to blow up. My understanding is that the Hindenburg Omen expires before the end of October.

OK - there, I jinxed it. It will probably blow up tomorrow.

Audrey

 

[jebmke]

I always thought that the Hindenburg Omen was a Robert Ludlum book.

 

[rockyj]

Then, in the article it says: The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987, meaning it's far from infallible but isn't inconsequential either.

I read this and think, oh, Hindenburg Omen, wrong 75% of the time. Nothing to see here, move along people. Now I know our media peeps got to sell ads and all, but if you are going to scare folks, wouldn't you go with something with a slightly better than .250 batting average?

I prefer the Lincoln Buy / Wheat Back Sell signal. Back testing has shown Lincoln Buy to be at least marginally more reliable than Wheat Back Sell, increasingly so as the duration of the prediction period increases. Some of you might recognize this as an update to the previously long-standing Standing Liberty Buy / American Eagle Dump hypothesis.

 

[dex]

Well, the market has 1 more day and 1 week to blow up. My understanding is that the Hindenburg Omen expires before the end of October.

OK - there, I jinxed it. It will probably blow up tomorrow.

Audrey

Are these the things you are watching?

 

[haha]

Are these the things you are watching?

Yes, isn't it cool?