How is this calculator?

[rjwassink67]

Out of all of the retirement calculators I have tried, the CNN Money one is the one I always go back to. Any thoughts out there about the quality of this calculator? I think it is well rounded and ask for a decent amount of information without getting confusing...thoughts?

If the link doesn't work. I typed in retirement calculator on Google and it is the first one.

Retirement Calculators - CNNMoney

 

[ERD50]

Why do you like it?

I did not, it felt like a black hole. I put in info, and it spits out an answer - but what went into that? What are the assumptions?

I tried to simulate a FIRECalc run with $40,000 spend, $1,000,000 portfolio for 30 years. Entered $0 for SS/pension etc. Couldn't do it exact as it only lets you set it up pre-retirement, but I told it I would retire in one year. It said:

YOUR NEEDS
In retirement, you will need $40,000 a year in income. (Because of inflation, in 2014, that will be equivalent to $41,200.)

Part of that income will come from your Social Security and/or pensions. To produce the rest, you should build up your nest egg (including your 401k, IRA and other savings accounts) to $775,681 by the time you retire. (In 2014, that will be equivalent to $798,952).

YOUR CHANCES OF GETTING THERE
To save $775,681, your investments need to gain an average of -20.10% from now until retirement. We estimate that there is a 99.50% chance of this happening.

So 41200 ∕ 798952 ≈ 5.16 % WR. Much higher than the 3.59% historical WR for 100% success that FIRECalc outputs. And what are the confidence factors on that? And does it take into account inflation (or just assume a fixed 3%!)-I didn't see that? What kind of market returns do they assume? And on and on.


Without knowing the internals, I can't know what to think about the output, other than I wouldn't trust it.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Here's the output:

2013	49	1016504	0
2014	50	1010682	40000
2015	51	1004656	40000
2016	52	998419	40000
2017	53	991964	40000
2018	54	985282	40000
2019	55	978367	40000
2020	56	971210	40000
2021	57	963802	40000
2022	58	956136	40000
2023	59	948200	40000
2024	60	939987	40000
2025	61	931487	40000
2026	62	922689	40000
2027	63	913583	40000
2028	64	904159	40000
2029	65	894404	40000
2030	66	884308	40000
2031	67	873859	40000
2032	68	863044	40000
2033	69	851851	40000
2034	70	840266	40000
2035	71	828275	40000
2036	72	815864	40000
2037	73	803020	40000
2038	74	789725	40000
2039	75	775966	40000
2040	76	761725	40000
2041	77	746985	40000
2042	78	731730	40000
2043	79	715940	40000
2044	80	699598	40000

So I can just count on that $40K /year, and still have ~$700K after 30 years? And it made no difference what I entered for my portfolio mix, it apparently only used that for the pre-retirement calculation.

It's of no use to me.

-ERD50

 

[Ronstar]

It's of no use to me.
-ERD50

+1. I don't trust anything that tells me to save ~negative 60% for retirement when I'm at a 3.5% SWR

 

[rodi]

LOL - I like it because it says I'm already there. In fact my portfolio needs to shrink. LOL

(Which I'll admit, I'm on the hairy edge of being good... but not enough safety buffer to quit my job.... yet.)

But it's really pretty useless. It's deterministic - which the real world isn't. It assumes the market increases x% each year... never a bad year. never a spectacular year. Life doesn't work that way.

 

[obgyn65]

I agree with ERD50. Yes, you read correctly.

 

[Throwdownmyaceinthehole]

Woohoo, going shopping I need to spend 750,000 by the end of the year!

 

[SumDay]

LOL - I like it because it says I'm already there. In fact my portfolio needs to shrink. LOL

+1

Told me the same thing, which makes me highly suspicious.

I'll keep fiddling with Fire Calc.

 

[modhatter]

I see no where to plug in to adjust yearly withdrawal for inflation (3%) or whatever you anticipate. It appears to be just withdrawing $40,000 every year.

 

[ERD50]

I see no where to plug in to adjust yearly withdrawal for inflation (3%) or whatever you anticipate. It appears to be just withdrawing $40,000 every year.

Yes, it's kinda funny that way.

I'm curious if the OP is going to come back and explain why he/she thought it was so good.

-ERD50

 

[Htown Harry]

I agree with ERD50. Yes, you read correctly.

 

[rjwassink67]

Ok, so I see this is not going to be a new favorite calculator for everyone. I just started messing around with retirement calculators and it looks like firecalc will remain the go to. Thanks everyone for steering me straight.