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How many times did you reach your "number?
Old 02-14-2018, 09:29 PM   #1
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How many times did you reach your "number?

With the up-down-up of the market in the past couple of months, I just reached my "number" for the second time. How many times did you reach yours before you finally decided it would stick?
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Old 02-14-2018, 11:22 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skeptic View Post
With the up-down-up of the market in the past couple of months, I just reached my "number" for the second time. How many times did you reach yours before you finally decided it would stick?
Interesting question... I'm not sure...I think what happened to me was that the market took off as I was approaching my number. But my number was also tied in with my idea about how old I wanted to be, partly because of SS

I couldn't retire without it (or so I thought) but was eager enough to retire that I would take it at 62...That just got sandwiched in the middle of a nice bull market run up, so by the time I was "there" I had to sell my business, and that took some more time, and so I happily overshot the mark.

But the mark was really a lowball mark. I guess I really was tired of working, so I was looking at the bare minimum. Fortunately, by the time I got everything worked out, the bull market had given me more than I though I needed.

So maybe I'll have a more comfortable retirement than my desperate low-ball number would have afforded me.

I guess what I am saying is my "number" was not absolute.
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Old 02-15-2018, 05:47 AM   #3
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After hitting and bouncing around my number in 2012, I blew past it and haven't really been close again since. RE'd last year. Was waiting to max the modest pension.
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Old 02-15-2018, 06:03 AM   #4
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In 2007 I was pretty close then the depression hit. I was shooting for a 2011 ER at age 55. Then a market setback in 2011 put me into OMY syndrome. Fortunately I never sold anything and rode it out. Retired in 2016 with a substantial surplus. I should have gone in 2014 but who knows?
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Old 02-15-2018, 07:11 AM   #5
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I think just the once and then cruised past it thanks to a long bull market. In some respects as well, my number reached me as my buckets filled up.
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Old 02-15-2018, 07:34 AM   #6
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I really never had a number and I really didn't want to have a number control my life or have it make my decision for me. I always knew years before when I wanted to retire I was doing fine and would be able to retire when ever I wanted to. So when I was tired of doing the job thing I finally looked at the numbers and jumped.
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Old 02-15-2018, 07:53 AM   #7
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Using my investment portfolio when I decided to retire (Aug 2012 age 49) and then using a online inflation calculator it appears I hit "my number" 4 times. The first time in Mar 2000. This was all due to having a lot cheap company stock options and the tech bubble run up. I hit my number 2nd time on the down side (bubble burst) only 6 months later. Hit for 3rd time Oct 2007 and we all know what happen after that. On Aug 2012 I told my boss I planned to retire Dec 31st 2012, but he talk me into staying until May 1st 2013 which added more $ to the pot. Thanks to Mr market our pot is 24% higher than when I "decided" to pull the trigger to ER... Having gone thru the tech bubble and great recession it was (still is) scary to see how fast it can go away. I learned that having the right AA risk for your plan and not to panic is extremely impotent for for ER success....
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Old 02-15-2018, 08:45 AM   #8
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The closest thing I had to a magic number was the value of the company stock I planned to cash out to set up my ER. While the other pieces of my ER plan were falling into place back in 2007-08. the company stock's value was zooming up even while the markets in general were falling. It actually hit my magic number in July, following its then-quarterly evaluations. But not all the rest of my ER plan had fallen into place quite yet, so it wasn't until the 3rd quarter evaluation came out in late September was I able to announce my ER. That third quarter evaluation was a little lower than the second quarter one, so I did cash it out just lower than its peak, around my magic number.
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Old 02-15-2018, 08:51 AM   #9
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In theory the 4% rule is supposed to work even if you retire at a market high, but for extra caution you could go with 3.5% and then you would have 100% historical success even if you retire right before a big crash. If you're good to go at 3%, don't even give it a second thought.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:33 AM   #10
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As of yesterday I have 0% of my number tied to the stock market, I’m in for 2% with crypto so I watch that market along with the real estate market and precious metal market, they have protected my number pretty good
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:42 AM   #11
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We crossed two commas last year, and I figured it'd be "for the first time". I've been surprised by the run-up and our continued ability to save means it's going to take a 2008 bear to drop us below two commas. Here's hoping the same thing happens with our upcoming number.
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Old 02-15-2018, 10:43 AM   #12
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I never quite reached my "number" or I would have retired earlier. That said, once I hit $1M in my early 40s I started to plan for an early exit by age 50 and even downshifted to part time work at age 46 to ease into ER.

Then 2008 happened. I still had an 80% equity allocation and vividly remember hitting $1M again - the wrong way this time. Back to full time and another 7 years at the desk fixed that, but it's the main reason why I wanted a significant cushion over my "number" and am loath to go over 50-55% equities these days.
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Old 02-15-2018, 12:41 PM   #13
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The only "number" I've ever had was $1million invested, but there isn't much detail or calculation behind it, it just sounds good. 2008 was a big wake up and I realized I was behind so I've been in catch-up mode since. The combination of a big jump in savings rate and the tailwinds in the market since 2009 had me blow right by my $1M number about 4 years ago. My retirement planning hasn't been slow and steady through my working life, floating on the market waves. It has been more "panic and punch it" in the last 10 years.

My ER plan revolves around a date - spring of 2020 - rather than a number. I'll be 61 then. My financial awareness informs me of how safe I am and what I might expect for spending lifestyle but that doesn't drive my retirement schedule. At least not between fairly wide upper and lower bounds. I'm hoping to have $2m + a little pension + SS on my "day", but I'll be satisfied with anything between 1/2 that and infinity.
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Old 02-15-2018, 05:19 PM   #14
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I'm a conservative 30-35x spending and have a 45 year spreadsheet with big purchases calculated in. First you need to really know your spending & big ticket items for the future IMO...

We hit my number last year for the first time...DW doesn't subscribe to a "number", so I'm up the creek without a paddle.
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