Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 12-12-2007, 02:22 PM   #61
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
I've been thinking for a while (Danger, Will Robinson!) that looking at one's portfolio too often may result in a more conservative allocation than is necessary.
2Cor521
A more conservative allocation than necessary relative to what standard? Relative to what generic models developped by people who know nothing about me recommend? Or should I choose an AA that reflects MY risk tolerance instead?

I find myself very comfortable with a 65% equity / 35% bond asset allocation, which is fairly conservative for somebody my age (33). But I don't see why I should venture into a riskier AA, when all I need to retire in my forties is a 3% real return on my money.

And I have to say, neither one of the two plots you posted here look scary to me. Show me a plot of the S&P from 2000 to 2002 and I might get scared.
__________________

__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-12-2007, 02:35 PM   #62
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,057
I estimate I lost about $9800 yesterday. No big deal, really, but it's kind of annoying because if it had gone just $8900 in the other direction, I would've broken the $450K barrier.
__________________

__________________
Andre1969 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 02:56 PM   #63
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 204
to the ones who loses 20k and above, you guys must have sizeable protfolio. are your allocation 100% equity?
__________________
steve88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 03:03 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
And I have to say, neither one of the two plots you posted here look scary to me. Show me a plot of the S&P from 2000 to 2002 and I might get scared.
Like this?:


S&P 500 INDEX ($INX) - Stock chart, Index chart - MSN Money
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 03:03 PM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,627
Quote:
Originally Posted by steve88 View Post
to the ones who loses 20k and above, you guys must have sizeable protfolio. are your allocation 100% equity?
There are alot of retired folks here. Assume they have a safe-withdrawal rate of 4%. The stock market moved by about 2% yesterday. A $20K drop is 2% of a million, but assume retired folks are not 100% equities, but around 50:50, so they have a portfolio of $2 million. Also, 4% of $2 million is a reasonable $80,000 annual safe withdrawal.

Bottom line: nope folks don't have sizable portfolios around here. They are just average.
Corollary: Your portfolios needs to have drops of $50,000 on some days before you are allowed to retire.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 03:05 PM   #66
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
There are alot of retired folks here. Assume they have a safe-withdrawal rate of 4%. The stock market moved by about 2% yesterday. A $20K drop is 2% of a million, but assume retired folks are not 100% equities, but around 50:50, so they have a portfolio of $2 million. Also, 4% of $2 million is a reasonable $80,000 annual safe withdrawal.

Bottom line: nope folks don't have sizable portfolios around here. They are just average.
Most of the retired ones on here have $500,000 plus,which puts them in the top 5% of all retirees...................
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 03:07 PM   #67
Recycles dryer sheets
JonnyM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Modesto
Posts: 334
Send a message via AIM to JonnyM Send a message via Yahoo to JonnyM
Now you went and did it. I was comfortable in my unknowing bliss, and you guys show me how easy it is to just list my funds where they can be seen each and everyday I go to read my email. Drat, why did I read this thread?
__________________
It's about the music
JonnyM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 03:16 PM   #68
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Yep, that'll do it. scary stuff...
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 04:27 PM   #69
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 2,409
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
A more conservative allocation than necessary relative to what standard? Relative to what generic models developped by people who know nothing about me recommend? Or should I choose an AA that reflects MY risk tolerance instead?
I love this forum's pointed questions...they make me think. I was posting from my own POV and didn't generalize. In my own case, I wish to be as aggressive with my asset allocation as I reasonably can while still being comfortable with the volatility. Currently I am essentially 100% invested in the S&P, but admit that when checking it every day or nearly every day this year, I have a little too much heartburn for my liking. So I have been considering moving 10% to bonds. If I only checked monthly, maybe I would remain comfortable at 100% stocks because there have been quite a few times when the market has been up and down a few hundred points within a 5 trading day period and ended relatively flat.

I would say pick an AA that reflects your own risk tolerance. My point is that if you do a gut check on your risk tolerance by checking the market, the results you will get will depend on how frequently you check the market, and perhaps checking it less frequently will result in less apparent volatility, which will in turn affect how comfortable you feel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
I find myself very comfortable with a 65% equity / 35% bond asset allocation, which is fairly conservative for somebody my age (33). But I don't see why I should venture into a riskier AA, when all I need to retire in my forties is a 3% real return on my money.
The only reasons I can think of would be if you wanted to run up the score and retire even earlier or retire with a better standard of living or retire with more security or would want to leave more to your kids or charity and are comfortable with the added risk you'd have to take on to do so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
And I have to say, neither one of the two plots you posted here look scary to me. Show me a plot of the S&P from 2000 to 2002 and I might get scared.
My comments were about the comparative level of scariness between the two plots, not the absolute level.

2Cor521
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 06:14 PM   #70
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 2,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Most of the retired ones on here have $500,000 plus,which puts them in the top 5% of all retirees...................
FD.........where does that stat come from? I've heard it on a radio commercial for Fisher(sp) Investments and wondered about it's validity. The context was not limited to retirees, tho. I am very interested in this sort of portfolio distribution data and don't know of any sources. That's a lot of money for the average US household, but being on this board makes it sound moderate.

As for the question at hand, I don't usually check when market is down, but I do compare % change for my managed funds vs. their index.
__________________
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 07:33 PM   #71
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
retire@40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
Just to alleviate some of the pain from yesterday, I checked what I was up today: $5,700. Kinda makes me feel a little better from yesterdays (paper) loss of $18K.
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
retire@40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 07:54 PM   #72
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
I don't really understand why, but my accounts are back to flat with the day before the Fed disappointed.

Going forward, I really don't feel particularly sanguine about things. It seems that the stuff that is cheap is also loaded with risk; while the rest is not exactly cheap. Not necessarily overpriced either, just not glaringly cheap.

However, if the government has its way things should go swimmingly. The new rule seems to be that markets shalt not go down.

I am really impressed by the $100,000+ one day draw-downs mentioned above. For the cheap livers on the board this world be 3 or more years of expenses. In one day! Not only that, I would be wondering if this can happen in one day, and not a particularly bad day historically, what would a truly bad day look like? Or week? Or year?

But of course, truly bad days may have been successfully banished. Seems to be working that way so far anyway.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 08:01 PM   #73
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
Corollary: Your portfolios needs to have drops of $50,000 on some days before you are allowed to retire.
Nah. Many have good pensions and have very little in equities.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-12-2007, 08:18 PM   #74
Full time employment: Posting here.
dessert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Southern Louisiana
Posts: 517
Quote:
Originally Posted by dessert View Post
I have to learn the art of "not looking at it" every day. I know this is a bad habit but right now I just can't seem to shake that.
I admire all of you guys that "ignore" what's going on in the market, just check quarterly, or yearly etc.
Gotta learn how to do that........anyway down 19K today but will probably get it back tomorrow!
Got back 6K today but I am still up 11.5% for the year so
"what? me worry?"

I'll just have to go "cold turkey" and just quit looking for a week, and then longer and longer between peeks.
__________________
dessert is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-13-2007, 01:37 AM   #75
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,753
I dropped about 100K yesterday and got back, maybe, 70K today. It's just noise.
__________________

__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
kumquat is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Gotta lose some LB's BOBOT Health and Early Retirement 60 12-03-2006 02:52 PM
Yet another thread on how fat you are....lose weight and save at the pump! maddythebeagle Other topics 11 10-29-2006 03:48 PM
Win the battle, Lose the war Sundance Kid FIRE and Money 12 03-08-2006 05:45 PM
Call Buyers Lose Again- Don't Stop Now! JPatrick FIRE and Money 3 10-22-2005 10:03 PM
Win some - Lose some John Galt Life after FIRE 3 02-19-2005 08:41 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:54 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.