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Old 03-05-2008, 08:13 PM   #21
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Pat and BGF....Two votes for the meltdown senario, I can't say your right or wrong. It is a very gloomy stance and if you are wrong, you'll miss out on some investments. How do you know you are right? Isn't it possible the lower rates will bail out the banks and things will start to turn?
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Old 03-05-2008, 08:16 PM   #22
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Why am I wishing lately all of my assets were in gold coin buried in my backyard? (I knew I should have listened to the gold bugs!!!)
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Old 03-05-2008, 08:29 PM   #23
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Why am I wishing lately all of my assets were in gold coin buried in my backyard? (I knew I should have listened to the gold bugs!!!)
You might like this

Comics and Editorial Cartoons: Tom Toles on Yahoo! News

Or this:

Gold and the Dollar: Value is in the Eye of the Beholder - Seeking Alpha

It's never too late
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Old 03-05-2008, 08:53 PM   #24
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Pat and BGF....Two votes for the meltdown senario, I can't say your right or wrong. It is a very gloomy stance and if you are wrong, you'll miss out on some investments. How do you know you are right? Isn't it possible the lower rates will bail out the banks and things will start to turn?
I don't know that I'm right. But people who say the stock market is a great investment and is always going to go up and that there is no inflation, etc., can't know that they're right either. No one has a crystal ball. But I DO know that the Fed is printing money like crazy which is inflating our money supply and I DO know that when other countries have done this in the past it has resulted in runaway inflation and the collapse of their currencies. Yes, it's a gloomy outlook, but there are steps you can take to mitigate the damage.
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Old 03-05-2008, 08:56 PM   #25
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It's amazing just how many people KNOW we are facing impending apocalypse.
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:02 PM   #26
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Patrick, I hear all the time that they are printing money like crazy but the Adjusted Monetary Base has actually been stable for about a year. It might not be what you think, the FED may actually be doing some deflating behind the scenes to slow things down at the same time they are cutting rates. I'm sure the inflation spurt is scaring the ***t out of them too. If you want a source, I might be able to find something on that.
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:03 PM   #27
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The country and stock market are running on Fumes. It will look awful in less than 6 months. 4+ dollar a gallon gasoline, and to think the rest of the world is worried that america will collapse is funny. They DO NOT CARE!! we have brought it on to ourselves. the Opec cartel understands that China and India will pick up the slack that we stop buying. And at this inflated price 100+ a barrel so what if america buys less we still are spending way too much for oil from the likes of Chavez and the saudis.
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:05 PM   #28
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Patrick, I hear all the time that they are printing money like crazy but the Adjusted Monetary Base has actually been stable for about a year. It might not be what you think, the FED may actually be doing some deflating behind the scenes to slow things down at the same time they are cutting rates. I'm sure the inflation spurt is scaring the ***t out of them too. If you want a source, I might be able to find something on that.
That would be very interesting. If you have the time, would you post something?

Thanks.

Ha
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Old 03-05-2008, 09:12 PM   #29
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And at this inflated price 100+ a barrel so what if america buys less we still are spending way too much for oil from the likes of Chavez and the saudis.
This Chavez guy is going to be a very big problem for a long time to come. Think a young Fidel Castro, with oil riches.

He is already funding FARC, the Colombian Revolutionary organization. He allows the revolutionaries (thugs) to operate from safe bases along the Venazuelan border. And he has threatened Colombian Presidente Uribe with sending in the Sukhois that he recently bought from the Russians. The Colombians may be our only allies in northern South America, and they are besieged. It could easily spiral out of control.

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Old 03-05-2008, 09:14 PM   #30
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That would be very interesting. If you have the time, would you post something?

Thanks.

Ha
Here the latest chart. Pay attention to the scale on the left you'll see very little change in the last year and really no gain since the FED got serious about cutting rates last fall. They are not adding reserves.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publi...usfd/page3.pdf


For interpretion of what this means I would point to Dr Hussman, I'm not sure if he has credibility here but he went into an in depth analysis in his weekly commentary in the last few months.

P.S. here are a few links, I'm not saying they are the best but you can get the picture, the Gary North one is from last Sept, as you can see in the chart the AMB has perked back up some lately:
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Vanishing Act - Are the Fed and the ECB Misleading Investors About Liquidity? - December 24, 2007
Bernanke Has Snookered Us All by Gary North
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Old 03-05-2008, 10:50 PM   #31
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The country and stock market are running on Fumes. It will look awful in less than 6 months. 4+ dollar a gallon gasoline, and to think the rest of the world is worried that america will collapse is funny. They DO NOT CARE!! we have brought it on to ourselves. the Opec cartel understands that China and India will pick up the slack that we stop buying. And at this inflated price 100+ a barrel so what if america buys less we still are spending way too much for oil from the likes of Chavez and the saudis.
The US economy is about the same as China's and India's combined...
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Old 03-05-2008, 11:14 PM   #32
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Don't be too hard on the folks defaulting on their mortgages. They were the ones that keep the economy going by spending every dime they made plus the equity in their homes.

Who is going to keep the economy going now? Well, if the government allows them to get off the hook....they will be back spending again....only not as much.

Sort of like a former employee I had once....he was up to his ears in CC debt and lived paycheck to paycheck. When he got his tax refund he spent it on stuff rather than on reducing his debt. Then he got himself approved for yet another credit card so he could run that one up to the limit too. Bad habits are hard to break.
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Old 03-05-2008, 11:37 PM   #33
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Bad habits are hard to break.
Like saving for instance. The government is now instituting policies to force the prudent out of this vile, unpatriotic practice. Why, saving is nothing more than a form of terrorism actually.

Get out there and spend, Mr. Saver.

Show that you love your country. America needs your profligacy, not your foresight.

(I'm practicing for public office. Gonna run as a Republocrat.)
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