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Is Dow 13,000 - 15,000 on the horizon at the rate of this plunge?
Old 12-24-2018, 05:51 PM   #1
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Is Dow 13,000 - 15,000 on the horizon at the rate of this plunge?

So, the Dow went from 26K-27K to 22K in a very short time. It's like Groundhog day seeing -400 to - 600 day after day.
The Plunge rate seems faster than 2008.

At the rate this is going, I don't see any good news on the horizon. Will we hit rock bottom at 13,000 - 15,000 ?
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Old 12-24-2018, 05:57 PM   #2
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Maybe, maybe not.
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:10 PM   #3
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If it were obvious the DOW was going to go down every day then puts would be really really expensive.

Nobody knows which way the market will go. It could be back up to 24000 Jan 3 or so.
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:17 PM   #4
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I hope not.
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:38 PM   #5
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Hahaha.

They are calling for snow here, lots of snow.

I spent 38 years in Missouri, I'll let you know when it's snowing.
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:41 PM   #6
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It would be great if this rate continued with a clean break at the bottom. Maybe a bell will ring followed by a smooth rise to all time highs. A long slow grind down with several false bottoms or going sideways for an extended time would be much more painful.
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:46 PM   #7
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It would be great if this rate continued with a clean break at the bottom. Maybe a bell will ring followed by a smooth rise to all time highs. A long slow grind down with several false bottoms or going sideways for an extended time would be much more painful.


I agree .. i wish they would take it to the bottom now ..than going sideways and lower .. sideways and lower .. agonizing.

I use to be hopeful, but dont see any catalysts for a rebound ... maybe when there is a firm written agreement with China .. I suppose. Thatís March 2019
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:55 PM   #8
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The market will do what the market will do. No amount of agonizing, wishing or hoping will make any difference whatsoever.

Happy Holidays!
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:57 PM   #9
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I don't have the slightest idea, and I don't think anybody knows.

That said, about two hours ago I said to Frank: "Honestly I have NO idea, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that we are headed for a really bad market crash." * I was thinking a little lower than Dow 13,000-15,000, actually. I actually did say this, too! I'm not making it up.



* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:04 PM   #10
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The market will do what the market will do. No amount of agonizing, wishing or hoping will make any difference whatsoever.

Happy Holidays!
Exactly! And just like we all got through The Great Recession during 2008-2009, if there is another crash coming then we'll get through it too, together. We'll come out the other side better off and better investors from the experience.

I think ER-Forum members are at their best when the market is at its worst; holding hands, whistling a little tune, and encouraging one another to hang in there and not to sell low unless it is necessary to do so.

And Happy Holidays to you, too!
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:07 PM   #11
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I don't have the slightest idea, and I don't think anybody knows.

That said, about two hours ago I said to Frank: "Honestly I have NO idea, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that we are headed for a really bad market crash." * I was thinking a little lower than Dow 13,000-15,000, actually. I actually did say this, too! I'm not making it up.



* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!

You just keep those thoughts to yourself. LOL
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:07 PM   #12
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I don't have the slightest idea, and I don't think anybody knows.

That said, about two hours ago I said to Frank: "Honestly I have NO idea, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that we are headed for a really bad market crash." * I was thinking a little lower than Dow 13,000-15,000, actually. I actually did say this, too! I'm not making it up.



* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!
Your new avatar says it all.
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:10 PM   #13
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Exactly! And just like we all got through The Great Recession during 2008-2009, if there is another crash coming then we'll get through it too, together. We'll come out the other side better off and better investors from the experience.
Can I quoted you on that? Wait, I just did.

Happy Holidays
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:52 PM   #14
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So, the Dow went from 26K-27K to 22K in a very short time. It's like Groundhog day seeing -400 to - 600 day after day.
The Plunge rate seems faster than 2008.

At the rate this is going, I don't see any good news on the horizon. Will we hit rock bottom at 13,000 - 15,000 ?
Well of course, no one truly knows. If this is a severe bear market (as opposed to a correction or worse, a run-of-the-mill-bear), we could see a P/E of 7, before it truly bottoms out. We're now at a P/E of 18. So that's another 60% decline, or in terms of the Dow, another decline of 13K (if I'm doing the math correctly . . . I'm on my 3rd glass) to 8K or 9K.

I try to keep in mind these types of declines only occur once or twice in a generation, so think of it as a buying opportunity. As I tell my kids, if the market only goes up on average 6%/year over the next 40 years (when they retire), the S&P will be at 24,000, vs the 2400 it is today. If one has a shorter horizon, it's best to keep more in cash to ride out the bottom and eventual recovery. And the average recovery from a bear market bottom is about 2 years.

I just wish we would hit bottom quickly!
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:25 PM   #15
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Your new avatar says it all.
Yeah, very much the opposite of wheee!

Which we know understand is GRO-O-OWL!!
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:29 PM   #16
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Every recent recession is worst than the previous one and I attribute these wild swings to heavy financial engineering. I wouldn't be surprised if the next recession is worst than the "great recession". I will still keep investing regardless of which way market moves.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:34 PM   #17
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IMO the main issue was that the equity markets got way overextended, partly due to Fed easy money policy for a few years, and stubbornly ignored until recently that the Fed has been taking that punch bowl away.

Given that, I don’t see why it should be one of the nastier bears, or give back more than say 2-2.5 years worth of gains. I don’t think we necessarily have a recession although that is certainly possible.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:34 PM   #18
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Markets will fall farther than we like...and think they will. That is called a bottom. We aren’t there yet.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:38 PM   #19
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This market action might be the grease that gets the trade talk wheels going. If so next year could be very profitable.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:41 PM   #20
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* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!
Thanks for trying!
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