Is the schwab calculator an outlier?

palomalou

Recycles dryer sheets
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Dec 22, 2010
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I did a whole MESS of calculators a week or so ago before deciding to pull the plug in May 14. All said we were golden except Schwab, which said we need another 500K. I put in my papers (not a single colleague I told face-to-face asked why, and they expressed envy; it's not a happy place). But is Schwab's calculator an outlier? It wouldn't let me put in part-time earnings that had an end date.:(
 
I just tried the Schwab site and it looked like their SS estimate was much lower that the estimate I got from using the SS web site. Try using the figures from the SS web site and see if it is much closer. Also, I did not use any additional income. The two calculators that I mostly used are ESplanner and the Fidelity retirement income planner - These let you go into much more detail as to your particular situation.

No calculator can predict the future - I just plan the best I can and enjoy. To date I am under my assumed spending targets. YMMV
 
Fidelity says I will be broke at age 90 with no additional investment. Schwab says I need 400k additional savings. Vanguard says my portfolio has a 92% chance of lasting to age 90. FIRECalc says I will have a minimum of $1mm left at age 90.

I would say the Schwab one looks much more conservative than the others.
 
Yeah, it looks a little more conservative, maybe selfserving. I didn't dig into the details but ran my numbers and it told me I needed another $7k in savings to retire at 59. Firecalc and Fido RIP say I'm good with a decent cushion. Just another opinion to average into the mix. I don't think I'll do anything different based on this info.
 
Thank you all--I feel better now! I do use the SS estimate from ANYPIA.
 
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I don't think it's very accurate. I put in 40x expenses retiring at 48, with middle of the road risk, and it still says I need more money for my retirement to last.
 
I found it useless since it wouldn't let you do it for a married couple. YOu had to pick a future retirement date. You had to pick future spending that was no more than 200% of your current income - which doesn't include SS or investment returns (which is a problem for someone already retired). YOu also couldn't have varying spending throughout retirement. All that meant it wasn't very useful.
 
My, this is one very pessimistic calculator. This is the first calculator I've seen that tells me I'm not ready to retire. And I've run through all the typical ones that are discussed here in the forums. I'm not sure what to make of it.
 
It's using the following future return assumptions. Maybe that's the issue.

Stocks US: 6.3
Stocks Intl: 6.2
Bonds 2.9
Inflation 2.5


Also, uses a life expectancy of 90. Which makes it even worse.
 
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Katsmeow said:
The problem is that it is not conservative.... It is finding failure when many other plans find success...not sure why.

The projected returns are conservative, stocks at approx 3.7% and bonds at 0.4% real. If you are failing that may be the reason.
However:
The life expectancy is pretty liberal at 90
The confidence rate is also pretty liberal at 90%
 
Interesting. I'm a Schwab customer and have used previous versions of their calculators but never this one. According to this one, I would need a 2.6% SWR to survive to 90 (coming up on 52 next week). I already use about 2.75% for my SWR which I feel is conservative, but sheesh, 2.6%? That give a multiple of 38x, which, by the way, is the years I would have left if I lived to 90. For me, I think 4% at this age is too aggressive, but I think that 2.6% would leave too much to my heirs. Still, our 2.75% provides a pretty comfortable existence, so we could take it down a notch or two if circumstances demanded it.

R
 
Wow, good observation on the Schwab calculator!

I don't normally run the Schwab calculator and had not noticed it was a new one . I don't rely on it for me as it does not allow the detailed input we need coasting into retirement. (DH went part time this year -consulting.)

I do however use it for a quick and easy ballpark check for DD , who I advise. She has no interest in investing so she has money diverted to her Roth and I invest it periodically for her . Just recently I did so and ran her Roth and 401k numbers through the Schwab calculator . It had been over a year since I ran it . I was shocked to see she was falling a bit short for retirement . Until recently she has been putting over 20% into savings (age 28) and her projections looked good. She's had a couple of hefty raises this year and I was thinking that put her behind. ( She is maxing the Roth so that does not go up with raises like the 401k does.) I will now need to look at it more closely and see if I need to council her to up the 401k contributions . I was going to wait until tax season to have her decide anyhow . She bought her first house this year and it will be a big item on her Schedule A.

I don't see her in person often and hate to make finances the main thing we cover . Shes bright and capable - her eyes just glaze over at the thought of a budget . Good thing I ingrained in her never spend more than you have and pay yourself first. It also helps that she makes a good living ....

Her 401k is with Fidelity so I'll probably run her numbers through theirs too. At her age it is really a guesstimate anyhow .
 
Schwab: For every "green" scenario, I keep getting "With your current savings plan, by the time you reach retirement ,you will have an estimated $0 more than the minimum amount you'll need." Always says 0 - never a positive number.

Maybe you never have more than you'll need....

Does come up with non-zero red number on failure scenarios
 
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We're in our mid 30s. Both of us have been maxing our IRAs since our teens. I started contributing to a 401k at 21 and have been hitting the IRS max limit since I was 26. Our retirement savings are invested moderately aggressively. According to this calculator we can safely retire at 66. :facepalm:
 
The projected returns are conservative, stocks at approx 3.7% and bonds at 0.4% real. If you are failing that may be the reason.
However:
The life expectancy is pretty liberal at 90
The confidence rate is also pretty liberal at 90%


I ran this again and found it much nicer this time. So wondering why I read the assumptions. They apparently can change every year.

Turns out they changed the projected returns to 5% stocks and 2.5% bonds..both real.

http://hgtools.schwab.com/rcal/html/RSCHelp.html#LONGTERM
 
We've been Schwab customers for a long time and I really think it's a fantastic firm. Exceptional customer service.

That said, I think their off-the-shelf retirement planning tools are weak. I recently did a free retirement consult and while the individual I worked with was good, it was obvious his tools were weak. I think they are generally not geared to handle the type of thinking that happens on this board. Putting 12% of your income in a moderate portfolio aiming to retire at 64? Probably fine.

Dealing with stock options, deferred comp, and aiming to retire at 50 with a three-leg withdrawal strategy strategy that evolves as different assets mature? Does not compute. We had to torture this guy's tool to try to fake it.

Eventually the advisor just said "I do this a lot...and honestly at your asset levels and savings pace, there is no way you can miss your goal," and we shifted gears to investment options. He did have creative and interesting investment options that I would never have thought of or even known about.

He did politely mention a "full" retirement plan available for $2000...but he knew before he said it that we weren't going there ;-)
 
....Turns out they changed the projected returns to 5% stocks and 2.5% bonds..both real....

I hope they are right. If so, I need to start spending more. :D

.... He did have creative and interesting investment options that I would never have thought of or even known about.....

Care to share what they were? (unless they are unique to you)
 
Originally Posted by krotoole
.... He did have creative and interesting investment options that I would never have thought of or even known about.....

Care to share what they were? (unless they are unique to you)

Sure. I'm basically an index investor. He gave me three interesting fund ideas that I'm using to round out my portfolio:

JSVAX Janus Contrarian; 0.76% Exp Ratio
Fund has an R^2 of 79, so the managers are actually doing something rather than just moving in lock stop with the indices. Strongly outperformed the indices over a 10 year period.

HIINX Harbor Intl Fund; 1.11% Exp Ratio (High range of my tolerance)
Good Upside & Downside capture ratios and strong outperformance of indices over a 10 year period

LIGSZ Loomis Investment Grade Bond Fund; 0.83% Exp Ratio
4.2% yield; 4.3 Duration. Compared to a total market bond index which is yielding about 2.3% on a 5.0 Duration. More yield, less rate exposure. OK Expense ratio. High Quality instruments.

The other thing he introduced me to are personally managed portfolios. For example, if you can commit a wad of cash ($100K - $250K), they've struck a deal where PIMCO will build a bond ladder for you in your own account leveraging their volume buying for their funds to get you better bond prices. You get the scale benefits of a mutual fund (buying power, research) but the buy-and-hold-to-maturity control of individual bonds in your own account. Since they are individual bonds, however, you do retain the ability to just sell them if you need the liquidity. And he claims they'll do this for 0.3% mgmt fee.

I didn't do the PIMCO thing b/c I'm not ready to commit that big of a chunk to a bond ladder but it seems darn appealing. Pretty cheap, properly managed and you can isolate yourself from herd and ride the bonds to the maturity if a bunch of selling pressure appears in the market.

Very intriguing...but in fairness I didn't take it far enough to read the fine print... so who knows what traps lurk below the surface...

Hope that's helpful.
 
What's funny to me is it says I will have the means to retire, even without SS. Yet, as I posted in another thread, my FA says it's iffy. Lol. And y'all are saying this calculator low-balls...wait til you meet me FA!!!! Lol.
 
LIGSZ sounds interesting but their fact sheet indicates a yield of 2.5% and duration of 4.97.
 
Sure. I'm basically an index investor. He gave me three interesting fund ideas that I'm using to round out my portfolio:

JSVAX Janus Contrarian; 0.76% Exp Ratio
Fund has an R^2 of 79, so the managers are actually doing something rather than just moving in lock stop with the indices. Strongly outperformed the indices over a 10 year period.

HIINX Harbor Intl Fund; 1.11% Exp Ratio (High range of my tolerance)
Good Upside & Downside capture ratios and strong outperformance of indices over a 10 year period

LIGSZ Loomis Investment Grade Bond Fund; 0.83% Exp Ratio
4.2% yield; 4.3 Duration. Compared to a total market bond index which is yielding about 2.3% on a 5.0 Duration. More yield, less rate exposure. OK Expense ratio. High Quality instruments.

...

The old cherry pick trick. You thought he might pick some funds that underperformed the index?
 
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