A James Grant essay in the WSJ today is worth reading. He is an author and bond adviser and has been bearish for years - yet is tone now is uncharacteristically optimistic.
Read the article here From Bear to Bull: James Grant on Recession and Recovery - WSJ.com
Read the article here From Bear to Bull: James Grant on Recession and Recovery - WSJ.com
Americans are blessedly out of practice at bearing up under economic adversity. Individuals take their knocks, always, as do companies and communities. But it has been a generation since a business cycle downturn exacted the collective pain that this one has done. Knocked for a loop, we forget a truism. With regard to the recession that precedes the recovery, worse is subsequently better. The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. To quote a dissenter from the forecasting consensus, Michael T. Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners, Greenwich, Conn.: "[T]he most important determinant of the strength of an economy recovery is the depth of the downturn that preceded it. There are no exceptions to this rule, including the 1929-1939 period."