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Old 02-11-2016, 10:16 AM   #61
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Anybody getting close to their reballancing bands?
Since I'm OMY, I'm still making some money and inveseting. My rebalancing consists of new purchases to keep the proportion good. It is 100% equities now.
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Old 02-11-2016, 10:26 AM   #62
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Anybody getting close to their reballancing bands?
Getting closer. Equities are 42.7%, and they need to get below 42.5%. Maybe soon.
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Old 02-11-2016, 10:36 AM   #63
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Anybody getting close to their reballancing bands?
At this rate, maybe by noon. Or after lunch.
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Old 02-11-2016, 12:11 PM   #64
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Although I made an off the cuff and wildly optimistic prediction in another thread a while back, it looks like we're headed for S&P 1200 before it starts back to the 2000 range. It will probably take 3 years before it really finds the bottom, and take another 4 to break it's nominal May 2015 level. Maybe I'm nutz. I hope so.
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Old 02-11-2016, 12:48 PM   #65
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I have just reached my rebalancing band. If I do rebalance, I'll have to throw six figures in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.
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Old 02-11-2016, 12:50 PM   #66
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I have just reached my rebalancing band. If I do rebalance, I'll have to throw six figures in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.
Someday, if you live long enough, you'll wish you'd bought more.
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Old 02-11-2016, 02:23 PM   #67
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20 price alerts at Fido, not one has triggered yet. Yawn.
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Old 02-11-2016, 02:29 PM   #68
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February is shaping up to be a good kick in the nads!
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Old 02-11-2016, 03:20 PM   #69
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I follow a bunch of chartists. Fidelity's Jurien Timmer for one (though I'm not a Fido customer).

General chart consensus is a nice rally starting 4-8 weeks from now....till then, pain

From your lips to gods ears!


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Old 02-11-2016, 03:24 PM   #70
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You know, the worst kick is with early retirement we have to learn how to deal with this kind of volatility for decades. My Dad is 92, has a pension and CD's and sleeps very well, our lives are a wee bit different...


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Old 02-11-2016, 10:37 PM   #71
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Relax. Stay calm. We've not seen a knee knocking sell off beyond 10 percent for years.

Let's get down to 1750 or 1680. It's good for the market.
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You Are Owed Nothing
Old 02-12-2016, 09:07 AM   #72
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You Are Owed Nothing

A very timely essay on investing. You Are Owed Nothing – The Irrelevant Investor

The conclusion
Quote:
As you’re probably painfully aware, the S&P 500 hasn’t made any progress over the last two years. If you’re feeling a little frustrated, I have some bad news for you, this is how stocks work. The stock market doesn’t owe you anything. It doesn’t care that you’re about to retire. It doesn’t care that you’re funding your child’s education. It doesn’t care about your wants and needs or your hopes and dreams.

I absolutely believe that stocks are the best game in town. I don’t think there is a better way for the average investor to grow their wealth. However, this is called investing and the price of admission is gut wrenching drawdowns and sometimes years and years with nothing to show for it. If you can accept that this is the way things work, you can be an enormously successful investor.
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Old 02-12-2016, 04:44 PM   #73
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"I looked at a historical PE chart and this market isn't close to being a bargain, in fact it is still rather high. Im sure pitiful bond yields are providing some price support though. I need 10% more down before I go back in. Of course if it does drop 10%, I will wait for 15% and miss the train pulling away from the station."

Couldn't get the quote thing to work. Anyway, I did some research. In the past 20ish years, when the CAPE (Shiller PE) gets to around 20, it's been a pretty good time to buy, even though the long term historical average is around 15. I believe current CAPE on S&P 500 is ~23. With another 10-15% drop, I'll be buying.


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Old 02-12-2016, 05:21 PM   #74
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wheeeee...........S and P up 36........Wheeeeeee.......on the way down 50 on Monday.
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:29 PM   #75
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My bad....I mean Tuesday.
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January was a real kick in the teeth!
Old 02-12-2016, 05:36 PM   #76
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January was a real kick in the teeth!

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My AA tends to move slowly between my rebalance band because close to half of my liquid NW is in Wellesley/Wellington/Van Ret Income which automatically rebalance but it's getting closer...

With the bulk of my PF in these same three, I think like you. Then again, there are those two international and emerging markets funds over in the Roth. While they only represent 8% of PF, they are admittedly a bit too much out of whack. Yet after 2000 and 2008, I find myself so unbothered by this latest. And I say this with retirement only a few months away...
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:59 PM   #77
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wheeeee...........S and P up 36........Wheeeeeee.......on the way down 50 on Monday.
My thinking as well!

I am not worried but also not wildly optimistic. Today, I started keeping a record of what my portfolio looked like on its lowest day after yesterday.

It looks much better than it did on 3/9/2009.
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Old 02-12-2016, 06:12 PM   #78
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My thinking as well!

I am not worried but also not wildly optimistic. Today, I started keeping a record of what my portfolio looked like on its lowest day after yesterday.

It looks much better than it did on 3/9/2009.
+1...........For entertainment value only. I think a lot of us have seen this movie before
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Old 02-13-2016, 08:37 AM   #79
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it's so much more fun to think of the value of our portfolio based upon the highest valuation, rather than the lowest, or anywhere in between.
A friend of mine bought a house in Florida before the bust of 2008, just about at the top of the bubble. He paid over 500K for a house that a year later wouldn't have sold for 275K. Yet, he insisted that his house was "worth" 500K. He would always refer to it as a "500K house I own in Florida"...It has come back from the depths, but not to the 500K he paid for it. He'd love to sell it, and get out because he and his wife don't really like Florida as much as they thought they would, but he won't sell it for less than it is "worth".
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:17 AM   #80
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it's so much more fun to think of the value of our portfolio based upon the highest valuation, rather than the lowest, or anywhere in between.
A friend of mine bought a house in Florida before the bust of 2008, just about at the top of the bubble. He paid over 500K for a house that a year later wouldn't have sold for 275K. Yet, he insisted that his house was "worth" 500K. He would always refer to it as a "500K house I own in Florida"...It has come back from the depths, but not to the 500K he paid for it. He'd love to sell it, and get out because he and his wife don't really like Florida as much as they thought they would, but he won't sell it for less than it is "worth".
Would he feel the same if the price appreciated to 1 million? Would he still refer to it as his 500K has then?
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