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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 07:20 PM   #121
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by brewer12345
Hold your horses. Remember this board is "early retirement forum". That means a lot of the participants are retirted and are more interested in controlling risk than shooting the moon. If you like risky stuff as a means to hopefully accelerate FIRE, that's great. So do I, although I wouldn't touch 3/4 of the stuff in your portfolio with someone else's stick. If you post your portfolio stuff on "Young Dreamers", I suspect you will get a more receptive ear.
I am seeing the disconnect, thanks Brewer.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 07:53 PM   #122
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
How is my Dow Jones Titans Index Fund with a 10% stop loss risky?*
...
I would like to learn more?
Stop loss orders don't solve the problem of volatility. There are a number of scenarios in which the person using stop loss orders winds up losing more money than someone without them. A sideways market is probably the worst for stop loss orders.

Imagine this scenario: You buy at a price of 100 and set a stop loss order at 90. The stock quickly dips down to 85 and then quickly shoots back up to 100. Now if you hadn't placed that stop loss order you would hold a stock that you could sell for 100, but because of the stop loss you sold for 90. So you lost 10% of your value almost instantly. If that kind of scenario plays out lots of times and you lose 10% each time relative to the buy and holder, pretty soon you will start to see the risk become real.



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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 07:56 PM   #123
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by free4now
but because of the stop loss you sold for 90
Or for 85, because while the stop-loss triggered at 90, the market order issued by the stop loss didnt get executed at 90, it got bitten on at 85.

Your scenario is called a "run on a stop loss", usually followed by the word "failure"...

Thanks for sticking with us psyop...we're a tough crowd and as brewer points out, there are some contextual problems.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 08:23 PM   #124
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by free4now
An acquaintance just attended a free 3 day intensive at:

www.millionairemind.com

and gushed about how everyone should go.* He couldn't stop talking about how motivating it was to get to a place where money wasn't an issue.* But when I asked him what was the one takeaway idea he learned, he just said it was really motivating.

That seems to be the Kiyosaki approach as well:* Get people psyched up to make progress with money, but don't give any good advice about what to actually do.* People feel the excitement and confuse it with progress.
someone gave my wife his book and i read it last year. At least he made millions of $$$ in his own business before lecturing. Kiyosaki never had a successful business.

I actually like millionairemind because he doesn't tell you how to make money, but tells you how to think and teaches you to recognize money losing skills you may have learned from your parents. He tells you to get into the right frame of mind, pick something you are good at, work hard at it and look at how you view money since some of his students made millions of $$$ even before going to his seminars but frittered it all away.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 08:31 PM   #125
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Highly volatile, risk of losing one's principal, and dependent upon price movement. *Yup, that pretty much meets the definitions of "risky" & "market timing". *Not that there's anything wrong with that, unless you've been deluded by O'Neill & RK into claiming that it's otherwise? *
That's pretty popular:
http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=8442.0
http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=8190.0
http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=7766.0
O'Neill says in his book that investing in stocks is extremely risky, but unlike others he was a very successful investor and stock broker before starting his research company. If you look at 1000 charts of stocks going up, on the vast majority of them you will see the basic patterns that he teaches.

Otherwise his system is simple. Find new companies that are growing earnings and revenues at more than 25%, ROE is at least 18% and the stock is rising. You want the top 2% of the most profitable companies out there. You buy when the market is heading up and you only buy when it breaks out of a consolidation phase on heavy volume since that means institutions are loading up. And since statistically most people choose more losers than winners you sell at 8% loss and you can still make double digit gains yearly.

plenty of people out there, but Bill O'Neill is one of the few who has made a lot of money with his system and his company has been right about calling market tops and bottoms for the last 25 years more than anyone else. And he did warn people back in 2000 to take their money out of stocks, several times.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 09:38 PM   #126
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
How is my Dow Jones Titans Index Fund with a 10% stop loss risky?
Or you buy at 100, set the stop loss at 90, then 9/11 happens in a new form, the markets shut down for a few days, and the markets open a few days later at 75. You just lost 25%, now what, good sir?

Quote:
How are these principles wrong?
Pay off debt and invest in assets
Get an education about investing
Use due diligence in investing
Leverage debt to buy assets
Use a business or entity for tax deduction and retirement planning options
Those principles aren't too bad. If RK would stick with those 5 things, I wouldn't care much. Of course RK couldn't sell 16 books, 2 board games, t-shirts, action figures, and seminars if that was the extent of his message. Good luck divining that message out of all the crap he spews forth.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 09:40 PM   #127
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by al_bundy
O'Neill says in his book that investing in stocks is extremely risky, but unlike others he was a very successful investor and stock broker before starting his research company.
I guess my logic disconnect with Kiyosaki, O'Neill, and the rest of the vendors is this:

If their system or their advice is so damn successful and making them so much money, then why are they wasting their time telling us about it? *Shouldn't they be spending their time optimizing their system or hiding it from all the performance chasers? *As soon as we ignoramuses hop on the bandwagon, we'll drive valuations insane and force them to get out before the whole thing comes crashing down on mean reversion.

Second, if they're so damn successful, why do they have to charge admission? *Warren Buffett has been giving it away for decades. *In some ways he exhibits the same fact-fudging and ambiguous (bigamous!) moral behaviour as Kiyosaki, but he's talking about it without accepting cash or credit cards.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-04-2006, 11:26 PM   #128
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Re: Kiyosaki

Hi
I see we are now mixing canslim and RK together

If you go to the early retirement website . There are articles like
Are you getting the shaft in your mutual fund?
You probably are. Retire Early shows you how and why.Are you getting the shaft in your mutual fund?
Sounds like maybe someone agreed with the RK article.
Did he make a lot of millionares ? There are a lot of strange testimonals on that site. of course no stranger than what some of you guys post.
I have met one or two of the millionaires and few people that have been able to retire very early . I started doing things before I read Rk. I like the forum cause i see some kindred souls there. I dont buy it everything he writes . Again especially about the market. Yet he timed real estate pretty good and I thought he was nuts when he started pushing gold. I didnt invest but I cant complain cause the market and real estate has been good to me

There are a few funds that invest using canslim . As lanced mentioned AAII is a nonprofit organization that arms individual investors with the education and tools they need to build wealth. Which has positive things to say about canslim

As far as the 9/11 comment .... He loses 75 % you lose 75% if your in the market
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 05:57 AM   #129
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by Nords
I guess my logic disconnect with Kiyosaki, O'Neill, and the rest of the vendors is this:

If their system or their advice is so damn successful and making them so much money, then why are they wasting their time telling us about it? *Shouldn't they be spending their time optimizing their system or hiding it from all the performance chasers? *As soon as we ignoramuses hop on the bandwagon, we'll drive valuations insane and force them to get out before the whole thing comes crashing down on mean reversion.

Second, if they're so damn successful, why do they have to charge admission? *Warren Buffett has been giving it away for decades. *In some ways he exhibits the same fact-fudging and ambiguous (bigamous!) moral behaviour as Kiyosaki, but he's talking about it without accepting cash or credit cards.
O'Neill has been running his research service since the 1970's. The firm he used to work for was one of Sandy Weill's original acquisitions that eventually became Citigroup.

O'Neill's book is just the results of his research back in the 1950's and 1960's of what qualities winning stocks share compared to the others. He sells research to mutual funds but the core of his book is you buy when the institutions are buying and driving the price up since no one's fundamental analysis means anything if the institutions aren't buying the stock.

With O'Neill you pay for the newspaper and access to his database which is a huge timesaver. It rates every stock based on a variety of fundamentals so you concentrate on researching only the best stocks with the best earnings and not waste time with anything else.

It's not a system, but just his advice of how to select the Microsoft's and Cisco's of tomorrow and what qualities they had before they started their huge runups. It's just 20 basic rules he made up for investing. If you want a system, Google Darvas Box. Back in the 1950's this guy made millions with no financial background.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 06:29 AM   #130
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by spideyrdpd
If you go to the early retirement website . There are articles like*
Are you getting the shaft in your mutual fund?
You probably are. Retire Early shows you how and why.Are you getting the shaft in your mutual fund?
Sounds like maybe someone agreed with the RK article.
I think you should g back to the site and read a little more. The owner of that site clearly says that mutual funds are a very good way to get to early retirement, provided they are low cost index funds. I think Greaney (the site owner) is about as far away from Kiyo-assclown as anyone can be.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 08:14 AM   #131
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Re: Kiyosaki

I am starting to see some support for CANSLIM, O’Neil and Investors Business Daily from some other people here, maybe the young pup is not a crazy as everyone thinks…





Personally, I am not a guru fan.

I’ve read Kiyosaki, Buffet, Lynch, Soros, Van Tharp, Darvas, Livermore, Orman, Stanley, Slott, Schwager, Bill Dunn, Richard Dennis, Ed Seykota, Joe Dominguez and half a dozen other financial authors.

I do not follow any of them as gospel. I look at them as a piece meal buffet.

If I like what they say and it fits my FIRE plan, I use it, if not, discard.

If people don’t like Kiyosaki or any of the other authors listed, so be it, they probably don’t match the investors investment style.

Van Tharp, Ed Seykota, George Soros, Richard Dennis and Bill Dunn have been averaging double digit annual returns for years now and they offer there services through private hedge funds.

Although this as seen as heresy to the investors on this board, it also shows that it is possible.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 08:28 AM   #132
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by spideyrdpd
As far as the 9/11 comment .... He loses 75 % you lose 75% if your in the market
Well, he'd only lose 25% if his security dropped from 100 to 75 and then sold at a stop loss. I'd still be ridin' the roller coaster as it goes back up. The RDPD guy who stopped out at 75 is out of the market until he buys back in. Where do you get back in? 80, 90, 95? In the meantime, RDPD guy just paid a commission on the sell, a bid/ask spread (which could be very high since his stop executed at a time of high volatility when everyone else was selling). To get back in the investment, you pay another commission and another bid/ask spread. In the meantime, what's your money doing? Earning 5% a year in a money market right after you lost 25%? I personally like to do the opposite - buy low and sell high. You don't accomplish that by selling low (after a big drop) and then buying at a high later.

Since my family's W-2 income depends on you guys, go ahead and continue day trading and playing in the market on speculative bets. I won't mind.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 09:14 AM   #133
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
Although this as seen as heresy to the investors on this board, it also shows that it is possible.
It's not heresy. It's people trying to explain why your style doesn't work for them, and your defensive reaction might give you pause for introspection on your chosen investment style. Because if you're really confident in what you're doing then you wouldn't be so stung that you felt the need to strike back with words like "heresy".

Let's look at the percentages.

How many of the millions of American investors are willing to devote the discipline & effort to picking the right stocks at the right times, and continuing to be right? The motivation to succeed at this field doesn't come from money or Buffett & Lynch would've retired after their first millions. The motivation comes from being hard-wired to be absolutely fascinated & compelled by the experience. Same for the guys like O'Neill, Darvas, Livermore, Gary Smith, even Marcel Link.

If you're willing to devote a couple decades of the same discipline & effort then you'd better have the same internal gratification-- because the external gratification won't always be there for you, especially during recessions. And maybe you have to be good, too-- really good, as in top 0.01% good. If you're that good in your day job, wouldn't you be the top executive by now? Conversely, if you're that good as an investor then why are you still wasting your time working your day job?

In "Winning the Loser's Game", Charles Ellis points out that very few people win at tennis by hitting winning shots on the court. Most are just not dedicated enough to put in the time & effort to develop pinpoint 150-mph shots to the corners. Instead they "win" by not losing-- by keeping the volley going until their opponent makes the first mistake. Only a tiny percentage of even the professional tennis players win by hitting winning shots. Most of them excel at outlasting their opponents with great defense, minimal offense.

Look at casino owners. They know very well that blackjack can be played to put a small percentage on the player's side. But they're not playing blackjack for themselves or even hiring pros to do it for them-- they'd rather rake in the big money from all the fools who think they know blackjack or who are just playing for fun. It's much easier to make big money from blackjack logistics than it is from actively betting on the cards, especially when a six-sigma event can wipe you out just as easily as it could make you millions.

Investing is also a "loser's game". It's not a game played by losers-- that phrase means that it's a game where there are many many ways to lose and the losing penalties are far more severe than the winner's rewards. So to win the loser's game, Ellis recommends that you avoid losing. You can keep working on those winning shots, but you'll need to be very very good and you might need a lot of money to keep you afloat between wins.

When I ER'd I received a few thousand from my grandfather's estate and decided to start my "brilliant investor" career. Over the last four years my profits have exceeded the S&P benchmark (not too challenging) as well as the small-cap value stock benchmark (like the S&P600 Value sector). I've tremendously improved my financial analysis and fine-tuned my stock-picking methods (thanks, Brewer!) and, more importantly, I've shed all that investor-psychology baggage which holds us back from executing the courage of our convictions.

Know how that achievement makes me feel? Like I've been working. Pfffft. I'd rather spend the time with family & surfing.

In addition, while my profits will build a really nice longboard quiver, I suspect that replicating my achievements with our ER portfolio would bring in a tremendous element of performance pressure that would keep me awake nights. Read the first chapter of Gary Smith's "How I Trade For A Living" to see what it's done to his family life. I never really cared if I pissed away the small inheritance on tuition at the School of Investing Experience, but I'd sure be unhappy if I did the same with the ER portfolio and had to start chasing a paycheck again.

For further exploration of this topic you might find a more receptive audience at places like traderstalk.com, fundvision.com, M*'s "Hands On" board, and even at FundAlarm.com.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 11:26 AM   #134
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Re: Kiyosaki

I guess people only pick out the parts of my posts that they feel like responding to.


1. I do not day trade – I hold most of my positions for 6 mos. -3 years.


2. As I first stated, I use investment advisory services developed by money managers that follow specific trading guidelines.

Once a week, I get an email saying “Look at these investments, here is the fundamentals, here is the technical’s, and here are the economic reasons why we feel this is a good investment.

Here is our recommended by up to price, do your own due diligence, make your own decision, investing is risk, past performance are not indicative of future performance, etc, etc”

Each week I get another email saying hold or sell to lock in profits on these investments.

I spend maybe an hour per week looking at my investments.


Where is the constant chart reading and sleepless nights?
Where is the day trading?
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 11:28 AM   #135
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by PsyopRanger
I guess people only pick out the parts of my posts that they feel like responding to.*
1. I do not day trade – I hold most of my positions for 6 mos. -3 years.
2. As I first stated, I use investment advisory services developed by money managers that follow specific trading guidelines.*
I'll say they do.

I'm not accusing you of day trading, and most of the people on those boards invest with similar time spans & tools that you mention.

Again, as for those money managers, "If they're so smart, why aren't they rich?" and "Where are the customer's yachts?"
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 11:35 AM   #136
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Re: Kiyosaki

Psyop, tell you what, this conversation could go on for some time. *Instead I propose you start another thread under Fire and Money and give us monthly updates on what moves you made, what you bought, and at what price, then tell us how you are doing each month, what you've sold, etc. *Then there would be no confusion on what you are doing, you'd be able to show what you've got, and we'd all have plenty of fodder to pick apart debate every month! *Your first threads with just some basic theory are big hits, with hundreds of posts between them, once we get some hard data flowing we might break some records here for post count!
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 11:57 AM   #137
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Re: Kiyosaki

This is under the same umbrella as gold, annuities, mortgages and all that other stuff.

Most investors, until they get burned, feel like there just MUST be a way to game the system, get an edge, put some hands on that steering wheel and flip off the cruise control and get ahead.

Theres just gotta be!

Until you see the data that shows randomness and persistency do better than professional money managers with huge teams of experts reporting to them and a half million bucks worth of computer gear.

The thing that most people miss, or simply will never agree with, is that the majority of investors either overthink the process or underthink the process.

In the former, they see patterns of correlation that existed in the past, they combine it with 92,000 other pieces of data, and create conclusions. The problem with that is the conclusions very well may not repeat in the future. At least not for long.

In the latter, people trade on psychology. In this manner, we're almost all wired backwards. We buy investments when things are expensive and going up and when they drop and get cheap we get nervous and run for the hills screaming "sell! sell!". In other words, when theres a sale we run and when everythings marked up we whip out the checkbook.

Bernsteins analogy to this, one of my favorites, is a guy walking his dog from his apartment to the park. The walk represents the long term financial gains of the broad markets, which are based on financials and fundamentals. Businesses and the economy grows, in 20 years you can have some idea of where the broader market indexes will be. Gordon equation, yada yada yada.

During the walk, the dog runs back and forth. Usually the dog has its regular routine and the owner can probably predict which cars, bushes, plots of grass will be sniffed and how the dog will react to ordinary stimuli.

Works great until a fire engine or police car goes by with the siren on, a new dog runs out of his yard to visit, or some odd scent trail appears.

A lot of people spend their time trying to figure out where the dog is going to go. Since that prediction requires knowledge of mass group psychology coupled with more technical analysis than is involved with predicting the weather, its basically got no chance. As Nords pointed out a week or so ago, 'persistency' beats prediction in weather forecasting the majority of the time.

And you dont have to predict or incorporate the psychological impact of a few hundred million investors on the weather.

Other investors bet on the dog walker ending up at the park and pay little attention to where the dog is going to go.

Yet other investors try to yank the dogs leash to make it go where they want. If you're buffet and can buy cheap misbehaving dogs and retrain them or you're peter lynch and are willing to run up and redirect the dog every few seconds, maybe you get something.

Otherwise sooner or later that dogs going to break the leash or turn and bite you.

Sermons over, I have to go clean up for our faux 'fourth of july' party, since everyone except me had to work yesterday...
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 12:43 PM   #138
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Re: Kiyosaki

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Originally Posted by Laurence
Psyop, tell you what, this conversation could go on for some time. *Instead I propose you start another thread under Fire and Money and give us monthly updates on what moves you made, what you bought, and at what price, then tell us how you are doing each month, what you've sold, etc. *Then there would be no confusion on what you are doing, you'd be able to show what you've got, and we'd all have plenty of fodder to pick apart debate every month!
Hey, good point, Poyet, where the heck are you?

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...p?topic=5152.0
http://tradingautomation.blogspot.com/
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 12:49 PM   #139
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Re: Kiyosaki

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I just checked his performance earlier today - he's still up by ~4% versus the FSTMX Total Market Index (ignoring trading fees for Poyet's portfolio). Of course he's out of the market right now, so we'll see where this ends up.
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Re: Kiyosaki
Old 07-05-2006, 04:53 PM   #140
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Re: Kiyosaki

Hey wheres the link to your holdings and way of investing so we can pick that apart
Its interesting how you like to lump the apples with the oranges and the diamonds with the coal.
You also keep making it sound like Lance is pushing something. We are just new to the forum and discussing our stuff. Its not like we have to convert yall
Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki
Buy Gold
Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki
Buy Silver
Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki....Kiyosaki
Buy real estate
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