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Let the good times roll!!
Old 10-17-2008, 12:02 PM   #1
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Let the good times roll!!

Nobody knows for sure where the market is going.....having said that...

All indications are that we are at the bottom.

1) We are down about 40% which is normally where the worst bears end
2) The market normally bottoms out right around mid point thru a recession which appears to be where we are.
3) We are 1 full year into this bear which is longer than avg
4) Buffet is buying

Ect.....

Historically, the market returns 14% per year for the 10 years following a bear market.

Let the good times roll !!!
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Old 10-17-2008, 12:35 PM   #2
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I'll be buying on a big down day next week.
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:13 PM   #3
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It does look like the free-fall has stopped, but it is still a bit undecided about the future with these big swings.

While this does seem like it could be a bottom from the credit crunch, I'm not sure it represents a recession-linked bottom yet. I think that is just starting. It might just extend this bottom, since we're at a good recession bear level already. It is hard to believe it would get much lower, but this has not been a coldly rational market so far.
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:19 PM   #4
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having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:20 PM   #5
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I'll be buying on a big down day next week.
Let me know what day that is so I won't turn on the news.
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:33 PM   #6
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having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
Theres always some event that causes panic. This time its a credit crunch. Last time it was something else and next time it will be something else.

The main point of this thread is that the market as a whole returns about 14% per year after a big bear market like this one. Whether we hit bottom already or we hit it next month, the next decade should give us oversized returns which is cause for celebration. If you survived up to this point, you should thrive in the coming years.
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:52 PM   #7
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The main point of this thread is that the market as a whole returns about 14% per year after a big bear market like this one.
Seems sensible. A ten year period of 10% per year returns is about equal to a ten year period consisting of the first year with a -30% return and the subsequent 9 years of 15% per year returns.

Good food for thought for those twenty- and thirty-somethings with a decade left before FIRE who are lamenting the losses on their portfolios.
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:55 PM   #8
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This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.
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Old 10-17-2008, 05:11 PM   #9
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Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic.
Bring it on!
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Old 10-17-2008, 06:11 PM   #10
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More cash than ever here. Have not rebalanced yet, and still licking my chops...

Keep these comments coming please...

I need encouragement to buy looooow...
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Old 10-17-2008, 06:19 PM   #11
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Theres always some event that causes panic. This time its a credit crunch. Last time it was something else and next time it will be something else.

The main point of this thread is that the market as a whole returns about 14% per year after a big bear market like this one. Whether we hit bottom already or we hit it next month, the next decade should give us oversized returns which is cause for celebration. If you survived up to this point, you should thrive in the coming years.
thank you. did not mean to violate the spirit of the thread. i just wanted to assure myself that this isn't a recession/ Ambush predator - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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Old 10-17-2008, 06:21 PM   #12
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having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
A "credit crunch" is one of many possible ways an expansion eventually meets its demise. We've experienced it before in the early 90s with the S&L collapse and, more ominously, in the 1930's. It has the potential to be an especially nasty kind of recession for advanced economies because it damages the financial system. Without the financial system, nothing in the economy works the way it should.
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Old 10-17-2008, 08:03 PM   #13
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Hey, I actually made money today even though the DOW dropped 1.4%. Nice way to end the week.
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Old 10-17-2008, 08:08 PM   #14
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Try the Bud American Ale. That will cheer you up some more.
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Old 10-17-2008, 08:42 PM   #15
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Hey, I actually made money today even though the DOW dropped 1.4%. Nice way to end the week.
I just checked, and every single fund I'm invested in lost money today, yet again. I am glad that somebody made some money today!
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Old 10-17-2008, 08:45 PM   #16
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one of my technical analysis newsletters is predicting another 5% downside past last friday's lows. next week or in the next two weeks, then some consolidation and then a rally.

the other one says it's possibility but as of last night didn't make a recommendation
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Old 10-18-2008, 02:28 AM   #17
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having never followed finance before, tell me please, have past recessions/bears been associated with credit freezes or is this a new type of recession/animal?
FWIW, the following is from Business Week, 10/20/08, page 32.

"... the crisis now weighting on the market - an epic deleveraging wave, a broken financial system, and an historic housing bust - is far more complex and fast-moving than either the dotcom collapse or the oil shock recession of the early 1970s. So previous bear markets may not be of much guidance this time around."

Ugh. Regarding my earlier post about buying low, perhaps I should be prepared to buy low and see them staying low for a while.
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Old 10-18-2008, 10:10 AM   #18
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Nobody knows for sure where the market is going.....having said that...

All indications are that we are at the bottom.

1) We are down about 40% which is normally where the worst bears end
2) The market normally bottoms out right around mid point thru a recession which appears to be where we are.
3) We are 1 full year into this bear which is longer than avg
4) Buffet is buying

Ect.....
5) We are about to change presidential administration & party.
(Always creates an upturn according to my aged MIL)
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Old 10-18-2008, 10:37 AM   #19
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This is the time to buy stocks.
.. if you still have cash available.
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Old 10-18-2008, 10:47 AM   #20
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.. if you still have cash available.
Food for thought. I have cash, and my AA has drifter to 40:60 instead of its intended 45:55 (stocks:fixed).

It was 38:62 on the 10th of this month, but then I bought some on the 10th and 14th.

It's hard to predict the bottom, and I really can't even try. Somewhat low for the coming decade is good enough.

Hmmm... it does seem like a little rebalancing might still be in order. Kind of scary, though.
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perhaps I should be prepared to buy low and see them staying low for a while.
Absolutely. I am not going to buy any more unless I am sure that I am OK about this possibility and the possibility that they could drop even lower, for example to half what they are presently.
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