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Market Nervous?
Old 04-26-2005, 11:29 AM   #1
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Market Nervous?

This morning I dropped a cool $20,000 in a few hours, thanks to UST reporting flat Q1 earnings rel to last year, and missing analyst estimates by $0.02! ($0.73 vs est of $0.75.) Oh Boy, almost 3%. The other problem was resistance to price increases in Copenhagen and Skoal. But with job growth poor, I think some resistance could be expected.

This is a company that has paid dividends continuously since 1912, every year raises the dividend about 5%, plus buys in a lot of stock.

Fortunately I sold almost half my position earlier this spring. I would have sold it all, but didn't want to pay tax. Also, I didn't want to own only T-bills. Now the market has taken the tax amount, and then some- plus leaving me with almost as much tax to pay should I ever sell.

Markets are frustrating- no matter what you do there are many ways to be wrong.

Mikey
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-26-2005, 11:37 AM   #2
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Re: Market Nervous?

Quote:
Markets are frustrating- no matter what you do there are many ways to be wrong. Mikey
That's why you're supposed to index, and buy and hold, no matter how low it goes or how long it stays there without having any idea of how low it will go or how long it will stay there. THAT WAY, you can sleep at night....?
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-26-2005, 11:43 AM   #3
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Re: Market Nervous?

Well, although I have had some sleepless nights, never over markets, mostly over women or lawsuits.

Anyway, even after todays hit I have booked a $60,000 profit, and I have over $100,000 profit in the UST I still hold.

It would have taken a pretty good index to match that over the last 5 years.

PS: Indexes can go down too-see Nasdaq 100 for a case study.

Mikey
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-26-2005, 11:45 AM   #4
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Re: Market Nervous?

The markets seem undecisive - just like the entire 2004 - up til the end year sprint of 10% or so. I will just sit and watch from the side line having only my gambling money flying in and out of various bets!

On my base portfolio I have very few adjustments to do: maybe sell VTI and get DVY instead for the div. income now that I FIRE, and maybe replace EEM with the new Vanguard EM viper to save a bit on e/r.

The testosterone boost certainly will not come from that - so my gambling money will have to handle that - hmmm... some delicious biotech on sale these days!
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 03:39 PM   #5
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Re: Market Nervous?

I'm really not market nervous. I'm jittery because DW is nervous enough for both of us. Even though the port is "only" down about 1.25% inc. divvies.

I truly like to hear that the DOW is up but this daily watching is too much like work.
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 03:55 PM   #6
 
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Re: Market Nervous?

Quote:
Markets are frustrating- no matter what you do there are many ways to be wrong.
Mikey,

If the stock that you bought goes down, you should not have bought it! - If the stock goes up, you should have bought more! You're always wrong! -

Actually, since I've taken a much larger Bond position in my portfolio the last couple years, there is very little volatility in my portfoilo now. I used to be about 90% stocks, and that was a bit bumpy
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 05:59 PM   #7
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Re: Market Nervous?

Hey MIkey..........that's pretty interesting. Most of my sleepless lights were over women or legal problems also.
In fact, a few times I had both troubles simultaneously.
I treated my affliction with Xanax and bourbon
manhattans.

JG
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 08:06 PM   #8
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Re: Market Nervous?

Market Nervous?

Sounds like a headline for a daily newspaper. Man I get tired of those financial journalists. :P
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 08:09 PM   #9
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Re: Market Nervous?

When was the last time that you hear the market is not nervous?
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 08:11 PM   #10
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Re: Market Nervous?

UST is a solid company that will produce respectable long-term results. You'll be just fine.
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-28-2005, 09:53 PM   #11
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Re: Market Nervous?

>UST is a solid company that will produce respectable long-term results. You'll be just fine.

I hope so, its one of my DRIPs. I am still adding $100 a month and expect to continue that. They actually had not bad financial reports, just a little below expectations so they got dumped. If I were value buying I would buy more. But as my investment system is DRIPs I will continue with that system. I may lose out on some good opportunities but it keeps me from losing a lot too.
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-29-2005, 06:07 PM   #12
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Re: Market Nervous?

Quote:
Hey MIkey..........that's pretty interesting. Most of my sleepless lights were over women or legal problems also.
In fact, a few times I had both troubles simultaneously.
I treated my affliction with Xanax and bourbon
manhattans.

JG

A time tested, sure-fire cure Old Grandad... Satan get behind me. Anybody want to sue me? Got enough women problems, thanks!
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 04-29-2005, 06:23 PM   #13
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Re: Market Nervous?

Mikey

Hang in there. Lately a steller performing stock that posts bad news or blows out a quarter gets creamed in this market.

Their P&L is strong and cash flow is fine. Same situation with MSTR... big hit there

Sit tight . I might DCA unless more bad news hits.

BUM
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 05-01-2005, 09:37 PM   #14
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Re: Market Nervous?

BUM,
I thought I was the worlds last drinker of Old Grand Dad ... its getting hard to find around here.
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 05-02-2005, 06:23 AM   #15
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Re: Market Nervous?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ol_Rancher
BUM,
I thought I was the worlds last drinker of Old Grand Dad ... its getting hard to find around here.
Good morning Ol_Rancher,

OGD drinkers are "tight" brothers and sisters. I'll UPS you a bottle if your suppliers dry up. One time my favorite restauarnt mistakenly got a delivery of 100 proof OGD. I didnt notice the difference DW suggested I not use the butter knife on the Porterhouse.

BUM
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 05-02-2005, 07:06 AM   #16
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Re: Market Nervous?

Dad and I prefer "Old Stumpknocker", hard to find but worth the
search

JG
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Re: Market Nervous?
Old 05-03-2005, 05:30 PM   #17
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Re: Market Nervous?

JG,

You "Stumped" me with that one. Dont think I can get it in NY...pity
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