Met a top housing market analyst today...and this is what she said

[thefed]

Long story short, close family is into some big commercial real estate. At the family xmas, I met a lady who held a top position at Credut Suisse as an analyst and now is a housing market analyst....not sure of the company she works for or if she's independent, but the word I got from my family who knows her best is that she's the "#1 wall street housing analyst"....whatever the hell that means. I know she gets the housing #'s in real time and she has , for example, november's numbers on nov 30th vs. dec 10th or 15th when theyre made public Didn't catch her name, but she held the position of the gentleman we all saw on 60 minutes the other day from Credit Suisse

Some of the data she explained to me was pretty interesting...and I dont have much time to elaborate,but as we already know, her main point is that its all doom and gloom for at least 6 months. my cousin is now contracting for her and is going to share some hard data at year end...should be interesting. She's been telling us both to get to an all cash position for the last 6 mnths.....wish i'da listened in july when i first met her.

anyhow, once i get some more details and numbers, i'll be sure to share. the few things I remember from our conversation were that at the current rates, 67% of people can now afford a mortgage....and 68% of eligible adults already have one...obviously this illustrates the lack of demand. she also was very hung up on multi family dwellings....because the single family homes are being thrown into foreclosure and being bought rehabbed at a pretty impressive rate (lots of decent homes being bought for cash in our area for 30-50k), the sfh rental market has exploded...weakening the multi family home rental market which is hurting the cashflow of many multi-family dwelling owners...which will soon translate into some absurd amount of defaults on THOSE loans. In her opinion, that's where the deals will be in 6-9 months and where she thinks i should focus my rehabbing/investment goals for next fall.


anyhow, i'll keep ya posted

 

[FANOFJESUS]

Thanks. Going by 60 minutes houses will be down for the next three years. You might ask her if she sees it going out that far.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i thought i read somewhere that shiller, or maybe it was roubini, predicts housing down 37% nationwide. ah, when it was down only 37%, i remember that, the good ol' days.

 

[Grep]

Pardon me for being blunt, but it just sounds like this person is doing a whole lot of boasting about insider's status at some party.

Sure, I've got my finger on the pulse too. Just let me lower my voice a little while I tell you to go 100% treasuries, lest someone else hears. And you wouldn't believe this, but housing is going to be down a while! Like 6-9 months, even! Shhh!

 

[thefed]

Pardon me for being blunt, but it just sounds like this person is doing a whole lot of boasting about insider's status at some party.

Sure, I've got my finger on the pulse too. Just let me lower my voice a little while I tell you to go 100% treasuries, lest someone else hears. And you wouldn't believe this, but housing is going to be down a while! Like 6-9 months, even! Shhh!

hehe. i knew the post would sound like that, but in my experience the cousin who's house im at has no reason to lie about it. she (analyst)usually avoids the financial discussions because that is her work, but today she mentioned that she heard i was working with my cousin to acquire some properties and we went from there...

nonetheless, my cousin is going to be emailing me some data to look at because i was very interested in what she has to say...not saying she's right....but interested that this lady is rolling in the $$ by simply studying these market trends..so what is an inquisitive mind to do but grill her?

 

[Grep]

So, changing the subject slightly: "thefed," can you find the shift key on occasion? I don't accept hot tips from just anyone, you know.

 

[Retire Soon]

Thanks. Going by 60 minutes houses will be down for the next three years. You might ask her if she sees it going out that far.

I couldn't agree more. The second wave of foreclosures is about to hit. As long as foreclosures continue on Alt A loans, there will be no bottom in the real estate market.

With no bottom in sight for at least three years, the economy will not heal. No one really knows what the value of the underlying collateral is worth. More people will continue to become upside down on their mortgages.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

So, changing the subject slightly: "thefed," can you find the shift key on occasion? I don't accept hot tips from just anyone, you know.

how interesting. someone who doesn't trust a guy who isn't being shifty.

 

[Grep]

how interesting. someone who doesn't trust a guy who isn't being shifty.

Funny! But my message is that people who would hope to be taken seriously would naturally wish to make that tiny extra bit of effort to write with respect for their readers. It's up to them... and to you.

 

[haha]

So, changing the subject slightly: "thefed," can you find the shift key on occasion? I don't accept hot tips from just anyone, you know.

And as you know we are devastated by this.

 

[Grep]

Yes, I know. In a race to the bottom, 3rd-graders will always win.

Cheers!

 

[haha]

¡Hasta luego Señor Grep!

 

[calmloki]

Ah, we do small multi-family here in Oregon. Nearly all one bedroom. While it's getting tougher for folks to make their rent payments, our vacancy rate is pretty much zero (except for the one single family home we're faintly trying to sell). Have raised rents on units that empty and people aren't batting an eye before renting. A 7-unit we have listed hasn't had any takers, but that just means we have to put up with collecting the rent. The idea of someone being into real estate and talking in 6 month timeframes is weird. Unless they are salespeople.

 

[Midpack]

She's been telling us both to get to an all cash position for the last 6 mnths.....wish i'da listened in july when i first met her.

Aside from real estate, what's she recommending on the investment side now?

 

[brewer12345]

The idea of someone being into real estate and talking in 6 month timeframes is weird. Unless they are salespeople.

Umm, you did see that the informant was supposed ly a waal st. analyst, right? Most of those people have the attention span of a fruit fly.

 

[Architect]

Top housing analysts were the ones who famously, prominently got the housing bust wrong. Nothing against your friend who I know nothing about, but I don't listen to anybody in the industry. Their opinions are too influenced by group think to be useful in my opinion.

I like to find the outliers. Blogs, independent researchers and the like who are free to form their own views.

 

[Nords]

the few things I remember from our conversation were that at the current rates, 67% of people can now afford a mortgage....and 68% of eligible adults already have one...obviously this illustrates the lack of demand.

"Lack of demand"?!? Hunh? Can someone point me to one of those places?

We're going to refinance two mortgages. The four banks & credit unions we're looking at are already backed up with 20-30 days worth of business. Some of the CUs have matched rates with the recent downward trend but have also been steadily raising their points & "financing fees".

Doesn't seem like much of a lack of demand from this consumer's perspective. But then I'm neither an analyst nor a Wall Street.

Gotta ask the perennial skeptic's question, though: If she's so smart, why is she still working-- let alone handing out free advice to residential landlords?

 

[jIMOh]

My brother in law's brother in law (follow that- no relation to me)- is a RE attorney. I believe he records things in various counties and sits in on closings every day (when business was good).

In xmas 2007 he knew enough to tell me whatever happened would last well into 2009 and probably halfway thru 2010. His only advice/comment beyond that was get into a fixed rate mortgage (I already had one), and he mentioned he switched his loan from adjustable to fixed rate right before xmas 2007.

We did not even speak about business this year at xmas... but his wife did need to get a second job come xmas time, so I am guessing his legal RE services are in much lower demand these days.

 

[JOHNNIE36]

"Lack of demand"?!? Hunh? Can someone point me to one of those places?

We're going to refinance two mortgages. The four banks & credit unions we're looking at are already backed up with 20-30 days worth of business. Some of the CUs have matched rates with the recent downward trend but have also been steadily raising their points & "financing fees".

Doesn't seem like much of a lack of demand from this consumer's perspective. But then I'm neither an analyst nor a Wall Street.

Gotta ask the perennial skeptic's question, though: If she's so smart, why is she still working-- let alone handing out free advice to residential landlords?

Maybe you have already looked at this, but my daughter has a mortgage with Wells Fargo and they are going to refinance with a lower rate for no out of pocket costs. Try your current mortgage company before going somewhere else.

 

[mark500]

Like Architect said, with all due respect, little reason exists to believe any "insiders" in the market, housing or otherwise. Where were all these insider gurus in 2007 at the peak? Probably selling property. We all know housing looks bad and will get worse before it gets better. She is recommending cash? Is she an invesment expert too?

 

[FANOFJESUS]

I think thefed is only tring to help us out and we should give him our ear.

 

[lets-retire]

With all of the, "Don't listen to the insiders." sentiment, I have to say. I was looking at selling and buying a new house late 02 early 03. One of the VP's at the DW company advised they were expecting the start of a "real estate depression" within the next 18 months. Some would say they missed it so it didn't happen. The area we lived peaked at about the 24 month mark and started the fall shortly after that. I would consider that a hit, since it was only about six months off. When talking about that time frame and like Brewer said Wall Streeters having the attention span of a fruit fly I think six months is a small error.

For the record I thought he was off his rocker when I compared what was going on with his statements. I was wrong.

 

[thefed]

A couple of quick points:

1) no, i cant find the shift key all the time...pretend i'm whispering


2)midpack-she never really said, but is sticking to her guns that equities isnt the place to be right now (as she told me in july) . all cash, frm my pov is money markets, high yield checking or the like until the dust clears...

3) the 6 months she referred to is the numbers reports....from the data they analyze, she claims its guaranteed to be all bad housing reports, builders reports, foreclosure #'s etc for that time frame, which is the longest they can predict assuredly with the data they have. of course the whole thing will take longer.

4) nords-maybe i wrote it wrong...but the lack of demand isnt on the financing/refi side, but the number of homes for sale vs. the demand to buy them...all 67 (or whatever)% of people who can afford homes, have homes. the housing stock is piling up which will keep the prices trending downward

5) i never said i believe this woman or put much merit into anything she says, but it's interesting to talk to someone who's making $$ by analyzing this stuff.... to her defense,she did advise me to get out of equities totally in july, and i though she was nuts....she said the proverbial $@!# was going to be hitting the fan, and it did. our whole conversation basically revolved around me and my personal investing goals....the point she was trying to make is WAIT a little while longer to buy another rental,they will be getting cheaper, and there will be fewer able to buy due to the new lending criteria- cash is king

 

[Grep]

A couple of quick points:

1) no, i cant find the shift key all the time...

It's o.k., I'm sure you are doing the best you can with what you have.

As an aside, does anyone know where the trend towards using ellipsis as a substitute for periods began? Just every-day illiteracy, or is it something more?

I maintain that this so-called insider's insights about housing basically amounts to a giant "duh!"

 

[barker]

Well, at least this person is saying NOT to buy into real estate for at least the next 6 months, which I think is very solid advice. Who knows what position we'll be in 6 months from now, but I believe property will be lower priced than now even.

Meanwhile, we've got realtors telling us the next 6 months is a wonderful buying opportunity. Check out this article from our local Tucson Az newspaper to see what I mean:

Got cash? It might be time to buy a home

Realty agents say next six months are a special window of opportunity