My doomsday scenario

[Danie424]

I worry about this risk as well but am managing it by putting enough of our portfolio in cash to live on for 2-3 years. We have the cash split between high yield savings and CDs, currently averaging over 2% return. I predict CD rates will be up in the 3’s before long. That is good enough to me to have the peace of mind to avoid the sequence of return risk. I actually have very few bond funds. I’d rather have high yielding cash and stocks mostly. I am sure to also own individual stocks that pay dividends like ATT, Apple and Pfizer so that even when the stocks crash you can still get the dividends. I think this strategy is good for smoothing out risk. It might sacrifice a little return but I place high value on sleeping at night!

 

[HI Bill]

I am sure to also own individual stocks that pay dividends like ATT, Apple and Pfizer so that even when the stocks crash you can still get the dividends. I think this strategy is good for smoothing out risk

I HATE getting dividends and having to pay taxes on them when the market's down, as the investment is at a loss. If you don't retain the dividends in the stock, you're getting hit with both taxes on what I consider a loss, and at the same time, not allowing the value of the dividend shares to recover. IMHO, it's a bad practice to take out dividends and not reinvest them in down markets. Other opinions?

 

[audreyh1]

I HATE getting dividends and having to pay taxes on them when the market's down, as the investment is at a loss. If you don't retain the dividends in the stock, you're getting hit with both taxes on what I consider a loss, and at the same time, not allowing the value of the dividend shares to recover. IMHO, it's a bad practice to take out dividends and not reinvest them in down markets. Other opinions?

If shares are down I’m buying more stock due to rebalancing, so no this is not a biggie for me.

 

[97guns]

Even if we experience a doomsday here at least I have a wife that could handle it, she’s used to bartering, selling, farming, making your own, even with a catastrophe here we’d still be ahead of the times compared to her Thailand village life. No gas, no electric, no stores, no problem, that’s how she’s lived for 40 years.

 

[haha]

For some reason, squirrel sounds tasty, like Frog legs which I love

Not even remotely the same. But both are good!

 

[haha]

Not to further derail this thread (hard to do at this point ). But....that scene in Castaway is one of my favorites. It’s the first scene when time is fast forwarded. He’s a lean, mean survival machine; he’s learned to fashion a multiprong fishing spear & gets his prey on the first throw; then, the utter resignation on his face as he eats the fish raw tells us everything we need to know about his feelings on his predicament. That one short scene speaks volumes and is a microcosm of the entire movie.

On the other hand, many of us spend meaningful money to eat raw fish called sashimi.

Ha

 

[haha]

I’ll stick to my cases of toilet paper in the attic, makes for great insulation and I figure I can trade a roll for some frog legs or a squirrel post doomsday

no way José. Most of the world does without tp, and none of us can do without food, at least not long unless we start out plenty fat.

Ha

 

[redduck]

For some reason, squirrel sounds tasty, like Frog legs which I love

 

[GravitySucks]

no way José. Most of the world does without tp, and none of us can do without food, at least not long unless we start out plenty fat.

Ha

I'm not fat. I am famine resistant.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't think I'd like eating city sewage... but that's just me.

Er, not exactly what I meant! But it might be better than eating squirrel.

This is where I have to disagree - strongly.

With a bit of sewage as an appetizer, the squirrel will taste fantastic.

Hold the sewage. I will just have my squirrel straight, please!

There's a dish in the world, which I have never come close to, which is reportedly as smelly as sewage! I don't care what it tastes like, that smell would trigger my gag reflex.

With squirrel which I have not had, I am sure the meat will be fine, and with the right seasoning, it is most likely a good eat.

 

[JoeWras]

This thread has gone down the drain.

 

[beowulf]

Flush twice and then check again. As for famine, that doesn’t affect those who are breatharians.

 

[W2R]

I saw an extremely large grey squirrel on my driveway this afternoon. He looked me in the eye, but did not seem very scared of me at all. He probably reads the forum and knew he was completely safe.

There's a dish in the world, which I have never come close to, which is reportedly as smelly as sewage! I don't care what it tastes like, that smell would trigger my gag reflex.

Are you thinking of balut? I have heard some descriptions like that, but have never eaten it myself.

 

[brewer12345]

With squirrel which I have not had, I am sure the meat will be fine, and with the right seasoning, it is most likely a good eat.

Squirrel is very tasty. It reminds me of dark meat chicken, but it is richer and somewhat more flavorful. Squirrel and dumplings and squirrel pot pie are hard to beat, and of course they are great in gumbo.

About 2nd or 3rd grade my youngest had to do an "all about me" assignment and one of the questions was what is your favorite food (squirrel pot pie)? So my wife had to face the teacher when she asked (in a genteelly horrified tone), "does your family eat squirrel?"

I would have paid good money to see that go down.

 

[jzajzz]

Does anyone ever worry about their portfolio?

Let’s say an investor with a $3,000,000 portfolio has 40% in stocks, which is the recommended allocation from many financial advisors for retirement. I often hear take the number 100 subtract your age and that is the allocation you should have for stocks. Age 60 means 100 - 60 = 40%. You decide to retire at age 60. It is the day before you retire. You have your retirement party and everyone says their goodbyes. You have no pension. You wake up the next day after some world event transpired followed by terrible earnings reports from your favorite companies. The market tanks 10%. The spiral downward continues dropping a total of 45% in two years, and then it takes four years for recovery.

40% means you have 1,200,000 invested in the stock market. After the drop, that leaves you with $720,000 still invested in the stock market and a loss of $480,000 in your portfolio. Because inflation has also picked up your bond portfolio drops 5% in the same time period. That’s an additional $90,000 ($1,800,000 * .05) drop. You have now lost $570,000. That once magnificent $3,000,000 portfolio just left you with $2,430,000 but wait, you still have to live. We have to subtract $94,000 (my estimated annual living expenses) for the two years of drop and the four years of recovery, a total of 6 years (we won’t take any inflation adjustment) that’s an additional $564,000 we have to subtract in a bear market. We became eligible for Social Security at age 66, one year before the recovery so we add 50,000 back’ (amount my wife and I should receive) Now we have $1,916,000. During the course of six years, more than a third of your portfolio vanished.

That means to make back your $1,084,000, your portfolio has to increase more than 33%. Of course, you may have had a heart attack before all this is finished in which case you no longer have to worry.

move money to cash or principal protected vehicles.

Savings account, CD's, Fixed annuities, fixed index annuities,

for a period you're comfotable with.

or better yet ..find a way to earn some passive income

 

[NW-Bound]

I cannot imagine squirrel being bad, although I have not had it. Same with nutria, which is a herbivore. I would not be surprised if some squirrels taste "walnutty".

About balut which is a duck embryo, I do not care for it, but it does not smell bad. It just looks, well, gruesome, being an animal embryo.

The dish I mentioned earlier but did not name because it might offend some foreign posters (food is a touchy subject) smells really bad because it is soaked in something that smells bad and does look like sewage. I have seen it on TV only, and the look was offensive enough.

 

[2soon2tell]

They used to sell baluts on the street outside of the navy base in the Philippines. I was never hungry enough nor drunk enough to try one.

 

[Al18]

This thread got pretty gross - maybe it's time to close this thread

 

[97guns]

They used to sell baluts on the street outside of the navy base in the Philippines. I was never hungry enough nor drunk enough to try one.

Pretty sure you can still grab a warm balut off the street

 

[brett]

We overextended in equities for five years post retirement to take advantage of an extremely positive sequence of returns. It was a very good five years, especially since low inflation boosted our real returns. It made a significant difference to our net worth. Without the guidance our our investment adviser we may have missed out on some of this action by being slightly more conservative.

Now, we are dialing back to 50/60 percent equities. We are also five years older. I believe that your mix should be impacted by amount of your net assets, your lifestyle, and your aversion to risk. Everyone has a different combo on this. Five years from now we will be in our early seventies. Depending on market conditions and inflation we may dial back to 40 percent equities. Who really knows until we are there.

We would have hated to miss out on portion of the last five year run simply because of following common practice, dogma, etc. The stats, the history, the recommendations from experts are important to read/understand. But there are often other variables that make up a short term opportunity that make that opportunity well worth reaching for.