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View Poll Results: Dec 31, 2007 - SP500
Neg 20% 4 5.06%
Neg 10% 3 3.80%
Neg 5% 5 6.33%
0% 8 10.13%
+5% 35 44.30%
+10% 21 26.58%
+20% (may be you need another crystal ball) 3 3.80%
Voters: 79. You may not vote on this poll

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My SP500 crystal ball.
Old 08-16-2007, 04:12 PM   #1
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My SP500 crystal ball.

I looked at my crystal ball and I saw SP500 at the end of 2007.

Edit to add: It's for the whole 2007 calendar year. Final number relative to Jan 1, 2007.
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Old 08-16-2007, 04:45 PM   #2
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You don't get whether its relative 1/1 or today. My crystal ball demands
detail
TJ
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Old 08-16-2007, 04:50 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by teejayevans View Post
You don't get whether its relative 1/1 or today. My crystal ball demands
detail
TJ
Makes almost no difference ;-) Your crystal ball should have figured that out already.
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Old 08-16-2007, 05:02 PM   #4
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Our current correction is just that. The "news" is being blown out of proportion and it will settle down soon. Then the rally will resume. I voted for the +20%.
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Old 08-16-2007, 05:25 PM   #5
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Our current correction is just that. The "news" is being blown out of proportion and it will settle down soon. Then the rally will resume. I voted for the +20%.
Wow!! I sure hope you're right.

I voted for +5%, because that's what my crystal ball told me to do.
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Old 08-16-2007, 06:25 PM   #6
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Wow!! I sure hope you're right.

I voted for +5%, because that's what my crystal ball told me to do.
Good crystal ball! It reads like mine.
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Old 08-16-2007, 06:33 PM   #7
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On 12/31/2006 I predicted +5% in the "US stock market prediction for 2007" thread.

I am sticking with it.
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Old 08-16-2007, 10:11 PM   #8
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The last time I went to the bathroom, I looked at my crystals balls. They both told me +5%.
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Old 08-17-2007, 03:14 AM   #9
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I did not vote. I don't have a good track record for guessing.

Besides, if I guessed 10%, that would cause the market to tank further. Then everyone would be mad at me.
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Old 08-17-2007, 06:35 AM   #10
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Wow!! I sure hope you're right.

I voted for +5%, because that's what my crystal ball told me to do.
This makes the 34th post-WWII correction. The average recovery for the first 33 was +25% 12 months later. That's the basis of my guess of +20%. The unknowns are how much farther will this current correction go and how quickly will the prices bounce back.

We have become a bit spoiled in the last 4 years of rally by not having anything more than a few single digit falls. It has literally been almost straight up but we had a major correction starting in 2000 to recover from.

Realizing that we've had 34 corrections over the last 60 years means that we should be seeing a 10+% fall around every 2 years. I am not seeing anything dramatic going on in the fundamentals although there will be some casualties amongst mortgage companies, financial service companies and possibly insurance companies that are heavily involved in low quality debt and derivatives.
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Old 08-17-2007, 07:18 AM   #11
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Voted for 5%, but looks dim in light of today's steep drop of Asian markets.
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Old 08-17-2007, 07:50 AM   #12
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What about the magic 8-ball? Mine says "conditions murky -- inquire later". Or +5%. It's hard to read.
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Old 08-17-2007, 09:27 AM   #13
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No balls, but saying +5%.
Well, guess this kicks the crap out of the "predictions" that the market would go all the way up to 1,600....rats! That would have been really nice, eh?
I've been watching Bloomberg tv on satellite alot more for various opinions these past few days. Interesting to get all those different opinions, which seem to agree many times, really.

What's even MORE interesting is how many more of us are writing on the Fire and Money board here the past few days. Somebody is anxiety ridden....or bored. Either one. Just alot more activity here than normal.
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Old 08-17-2007, 09:57 AM   #14
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Only 14% of voters at this point think the market can lose money by the end of the year. I think this speaks volumes about the confidence in the stock market by the average American. Corrections have been relegated to a 3 week affair that occur once every 4 or 5 years and then we go on our merry way!!
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Old 08-17-2007, 10:09 AM   #15
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1418.30 on 1/2/07.

297 Bogleheads averaged 1488 back in Jan.

My guess was about 10% higher then and now, or about 1569. But, it's been several years of solid gains. It can't last forever. So, maybe this time I was wrong about a positive gain for the year.

Today it's 1427 intraday. Let the bottom drop out, I'm accumulating.

-CC
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We can do better than that, surely!!
Old 08-17-2007, 12:25 PM   #16
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We can do better than that, surely!!

As long as it's just an opinion poll and does not involve any money, here's my opinion:

Thinking GLOBALLY, about the only major negative in the world economy today is this "subprime" crises which is primarily US based (pardon me, I'm no economist or financial guru). When you think of that "in total" compared to the size of the world economy, I'm sure its puny - not that it won't cause some headaches or pain - but a minor pain at best, when you put it in perspective.

Two-thirds of the world is actively engaged or taking part in the new global economy and hardly anyone except perhaps a few troublemakers want to rock the boat. The majority of the world, I think, is looking forward to a "better life" and rightly expect that.

New freedoms, new lifestyles, new and better products and varieties to choose from - all pointing to a more peaceful, optimistic world looking to a bright future.

Pity - the choice was limited to +20!

Bring in the new crystal ball

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A TIME LIKE THIS!
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Old 08-17-2007, 12:33 PM   #17
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Pity - the choice was limited to +20!
That's what the + is for. On second look, may be it should have been 20+%. I like your optimistic optimism.
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Old 08-17-2007, 01:57 PM   #18
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if the turbulence in the market makes you watch it more, then you might be taking on too much risk.

It's all noise. I read on this board yesterday market was down 10%... then I went to water cooler 2 hours later and they said market was only down 50 points.

I am staying my course, the volatility is needed to reward investors for the risks they take. I hope my fund managers go to cash with even a 1% or 5% gain soon... so next time it goes down 10% we can buy in even lower.
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