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My Version of Market Timing
Old 10-03-2007, 04:27 PM   #1
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My Version of Market Timing

I cannot fully control myself from engaging in market timing. I have upped my bond/cash allocation from 30% to 35%. If things keep up, I might even move to 40%. I cannot ever see going above this point. Yikes, I feel dirty .
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Old 10-03-2007, 04:59 PM   #2
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It'll feel less dirty if you call it "tactical asset allocation" rather than "market timing." Hey, it works for me.
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Old 10-03-2007, 05:40 PM   #3
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Calling Unclemick

You’ll have to wait for exoneration from unclemick, quite understandable based on male hormones, but to get his ‘get out of jail free’ pass you have to have the bulk of your assets in something stable like index or target retirement type funds, Wellesley also accepted.
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Old 10-03-2007, 06:51 PM   #4
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85% Target Retirement 2015 - 15% in der vid u all - ahem er ah STOCKS! - yikes.

I need a new doc - they say when I post at the Bogleheads - one should be under 10% or maybe even 5% to be 'truly healthy'.

Diagnosis of 'dirty market timing' can get a tad squishy - as I understand it one can get - free passes for - balanced index, Target, even 'well disciplined ' regular rebalancing slice and dice. Individual stocks tend to get lost in the debate.

ok so my age age 64 Target should 2005 and I try to hold my dividend stocks 'forever' - for the dividends - don't you know.

I could quit 'anytime' and besides I haven't seen any Interventions for dirty market timing on my cable channel yet.

P.S. Even my Lifestrategy mod had 25% Asset Allocation - their excuse - a quant model. Or just throw in the towel and get the latest Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor edited by Jason Zweig and bogey between 25 - 75 individual value stocks. Be sure and reread Bernstein's 15 Stock Diversification Myth for grounding from time to time.

So there.

heh heh heh - massive doses of index or balanced value(low turnover of course) help as noted before. Balanced index, Lifestrategy, Target, Wellington, Wellesley, Dodge and Cox - use only as prescribed by your doctor.
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Old 10-03-2007, 07:00 PM   #5
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My version of market timing would be to find a broker who would secretly do the opposite of what I ask him to do Sell when I say buy and buy when I say sell.

If I could legally start that brokerage I bet I would get rich
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Old 10-03-2007, 07:38 PM   #6
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The only cure for market timing is the eventual realization how often your timing is way way wrong! Some people never realize it - LOL!

Do you remember the times you were right or the times you were wrong? I think some people tend to remember more when they were right and so keep timing. I think others (like me) tend to remember how often they were wrong and eventually give up and turn to a "rational" approach like asset allocation.

I remember being wrong lots of times. In particular (and this is a BIGGIE), I would "wait to get in" - being convinced that the market would go down in the near future because of recent gains. It always seemed so obvious - particularly in the mid 90s. But I was always wrong! And so I would lose out on lots of market gains. I lost out a lot in the 90s.

Audrey
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Old 10-03-2007, 08:54 PM   #7
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I know market timing has little respect among this crowd, but some well respected fund managers try to do it anyway. One that has caught my eye is Paul Merriman, you can check it out at FundAdvice.com - Home

Paul also produces a number of excellent buy & hold / indexing related articles too.
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Old 10-04-2007, 03:35 AM   #8
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Handgrenade wise Vanguard Asset Allocation fund sits at roughly 82% stock, 0% bonds, 18% short term reserves.

heh heh heh - not that I would peek from time to time. I'm ok I'm ok - right!
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Old 10-04-2007, 07:26 AM   #9
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Bob Brinker saved my ASSets in Jan 2000 when he said to pull out of the market ( I know he made a bad call with the QQQ's but that didn't effect me) and then again in March, 03 when he said to get back in. However, at this point of the game, I am torn between the Diehard's "stay the course" philosphy and BB. Right now BB is staying the course so no problems but what to do if he makes another major sell call.
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:15 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers View Post
You’ll have to wait for exoneration from unclemick, quite understandable based on male hormones, but to get his ‘get out of jail free’ pass you have to have the bulk of your assets in something stable like index or target retirement type funds, Wellesley also accepted.
Hey, now, I am not a heretic. The balance is 100% in low cost vanguard index funds.
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:18 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle View Post
It'll feel less dirty if you call it "tactical asset allocation" rather than "market timing." Hey, it works for me.
Kind of like a strategic withdrawal? I like it!
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:27 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigla View Post
Bob Brinker saved my ASSets in Jan 2000 when he said to pull out of the market (
For completeness, remember that Brinker said to get out of 65% of your equity positions at the time. Not all the way out.

It was still a great call, but given that the market fell 40%, a 100% pull out would have been better. I'm not complaining, it helped me quite a bit too.

-ERD50
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Old 10-05-2007, 08:49 AM   #13
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I shifted more money to equity (US and International , EM) in early August. Now it is 60%.
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Old 10-05-2007, 09:33 AM   #14
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I can't remember ever being RIGHT on a timing call. Even when I thought I was right, within a very short time, I was wrong. Asset Allocation, yes, but which one??
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