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Nasdaq Crosses 4000, S&P 500 up 47% in Jan 1, 2012
Old 11-26-2013, 04:02 PM   #1
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Nasdaq Crosses 4000, S&P 500 up 47% in Jan 1, 2012

Some US Stock Market trivia and perspectives:
  • Nasdaq closed above 4000 today for the first time since Sept 7, 2000
  • The S&P 500 is up 27% year-to-date
  • In 2012, the S&P 500 was up 16%
  • Combined, the S&P 500 is up 47% since Jan 1, 2012.
NOTE: These S&P gains include dividends as well as the index values.

So this makes folks a bit nervous

But if you retired before Jan of 2012, your portfolio is up considerably even after annual withdrawals. It would take a stock market sell off of 30% to erase the past two year's gains (not counting withdrawals). That's a pretty strong bear market.

In 2008, a really bad bear market, the S&P500 lost 37% (including dividends), for comparison. Even though the "bear market" began the prior year in October of 2007, the S&P 500 including dividends gained 5.5% for the full 2007 year.

It's the folks who are retiring right now, or did within the past year that might should be nervous.

I just point these things out to folks who are nervous about the current markets. How bad of a market selloff would it take to really hurt you if your portfolio has enjoyed the gains from the past two years?

Knocking on wood very hard regardless!!!!!
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Old 11-26-2013, 04:41 PM   #2
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Quite a lot. I am enjoying this thrilling ride on the stock market roller coaster. If only this could continue forever!

Every January I calculate the previous year's spending as a percentage of my portfolio value on 3/9/2009, when my portfolio hit bottom during the market crash of 2008-2009. That cheers me up because I can see that life will not come to a screeching halt if when we see another market crash like that one.
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Old 11-26-2013, 04:49 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Quite a lot. I am enjoying this thrilling ride on the stock market roller coaster. If only this could continue forever!

Every January I calculate the previous year's spending as a percentage of my portfolio value on 3/9/2009, when my portfolio hit bottom during the market crash of 2008-2009. That cheers me up because I can see that life will not come to a screeching halt if when we see another market crash like that one.
Yeah, I recently did a similar analysis (hence my post). We've come a long way since early 2009!

Uh-oh, I just got W2R dancing. This might jinx everything!!!!!
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Old 11-26-2013, 04:49 PM   #4
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The market has to go up perhaps another 5% before I sell rebalance.

It has to go down perhaps 10% before I buy.

Till then, I just enjoy the ride.
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Old 11-26-2013, 04:58 PM   #5
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Well, I did a bit of rebalancing today. That probably means the stock market will continue to climb through the end of the year. Ha, ha
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Old 11-26-2013, 05:41 PM   #6
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Jeremy Siegel (Warton Professor and author of Stocks for The Long Run, see link on my recent thread Siegel on PE10 CAPE) gives reasons why it can keep going up. Nice to hear something positive as there are plenty of naysayers out there.

I'm in the hopeful camp.
DW is preparing spending plans.
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