New Quarter, New Record

[easysurfer]

End of 1 QTR 2013, SP 500 at all time high.

Not like I noticed or anything

Optimists view the fresh all-time highs, including the S&P 500 topping its October 2007 peak on Thursday and notching a record close of 1569.19, as a sign that things are getting better in the economy and people are feeling better about their finances as rising stock and home prices make them feel wealthier.

Can stocks keep climbing at frenetic 1Q pace?

 

[pb4uski]

The trend is your friend.

 

[grasshopper]

At 65/35 I am about .01% from an all time high portfolio.

 

[FinanceDude]

The real fun is coming soon.........

 

[mickeyd]

Yawn...

 

[AndrewJackson]

As a young guy, this makes me a little upset. At this rate, my contributions won't buy me very many shares.

 

[ProspectiveBum]

As a young guy, this makes me a little upset. At this rate, my contributions won't buy me very many shares.

I'm 40, and have already experienced 2 "crashes" during my adulthood. I imagine we'll both have plenty of opportunities to buy on the cheap in the decades ahead.

 

[pb4uski]

Just pinch me. Nestegg and NW are ~13-14% more than when I retired at the end of 2011. [-]Whee!![/-]

It doesn't count if it is struckthrough, right?

 

[MichaelB]

Just pinch me. Nestegg and NW are ~13-14% more than when I retired at the end of 2011. [-]Whee!![/-]

It doesn't count if it is struckthrough, right?

?? Trying to jinx something here?

 

[audreyh1]

Shhhhhhh! Don't wake up W2R!

 

[heeyy_joe]

The S&P hit a new high for sure, but adjusted for inflation it would be about 15% away from an inflation adjusted high. This market has room to run higher.

 

[timo2]

IMHO, the market can rise more, because it is based upon the world views of a small group of wealthy funds and people that are dissociated from the USA economy, 'not that there's anything wrong with that', because that thought is what keeps me in the market. If I thought the market was tied to the USA economy, I'd be more nervous about the market. I'm sure I'll be proven wrong in the next crash, but for now, that's my story and I'm sticking to it

 

[aja8888]

Just make sure you have stops put in and advance them up as the market rises.

 

[audreyh1]

The S&P hit a new high for sure, but adjusted for inflation it would be about 15% away from an inflation adjusted high. This market has room to run higher.

Does that "inflation adjustment" include the dividends paid out over the time period? Because I read an article today that ignored dividends yet talked about the "real return" of the S&P500 since the last "all-time high", and I think you have to take dividends into account when discussing a break-even "real return".

 

[comicbookgujy]

dang. If I was all in, I would be retired by now.

My portfolio is
the same since 2007, 50% stocks / 50% cash

I got out before the crash, but didn't go back all in during the bear market

 

[bondi688]

On the one hand, you have the stock market in the US recording successive new highs, on the other hand, you have the Cypress bank debacle. and this news today that points to continuing problems in the European banking sector.

World's oldest bank reports £2.7bn loss | Business | The Guardian
" Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena reported a bigger than expected yearly net loss as it booked higher bad debt provisions and losses on derivatives trades that are at the centre of a fraud investigation. Its 2012 loss of €3.2bn (£2.7bn) compared with an average estimated loss of €2.5bn in a Reuters poll of eight banks and brokerages, and followed a €4.7bn loss in 2011."

The bank is Italy's third-biggest lender, and had already needed a €4bn state bailout last month.

Other problem areas includes economic slowdown in China, Hong Kong and Singapore.

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/sh...amp-slowdown-.ING-amp-Credit-suisse-downgrade

Are we blinded by irrational exuberance brought into existence by the massive liquidity from QE III?

 

[pb4uski]

Does that "inflation adjustment" include the dividends paid out over the time period? Because I read an article today that ignored dividends yet talked about the "real return" of the S&P500 since the last "all-time high", and I think you have to take dividends into account when discussing a break-even "real return".

I agree. Looking at the 10 year value of $10,000 of Vanguard S&P 500 fund graph which would include reinvested dividends, the previous peak was $19,804 around mid-2007 and the current value of that same account with dividends reinvested would be $22,654, a 2.5% average annual return from the previous peak to today which probably exceeds inflation over the same period. If you took dividends in cash rather than reinvested the return would probably be lower and might be near to or even below inflation.

 

[JoeWras]

So I joined this site last fall and woke up to the fact I had waaaay too much cash in my AA. The good suggestion here was to add it via value averaging, especially since I felt (at the time) that market was high then.

So, I'm executing that plan per month (for two years) and every buy is under my target. I'm waiting for a crash so I can put more in, but it isn't happening! I'm having a hard time getting rid of my cash in the market with that strategy.

 

[jollystomper]

As a young guy, this makes me a little upset. At this rate, my contributions won't buy me very many shares.

I though the same in 1987, and 1999, and 2007... trust me, you'll have your chances.

 

[grasshopper]

At 65/35 I am about .01% from an all time high portfolio.

Whoops spoke to soon, when all my dividends showed up this morning, I am over the top. My net worth is 11% higher than when I retired in 2006.

 

[FIRE'd@51]

IMHO, the market can rise more, because it is based upon the world views of a small group of wealthy funds and people that are dissociated from the USA economy

I'd be more concerned about the effect of Federal Reserve policy than the small group of wealthy investors to whom you refer.

 

[rayvt]

So I joined this site last fall and woke up to the fact I had waaaay too much cash in my AA. The good suggestion here was to add it via value averaging, especially since I felt (at the time) that market was high then.

So, I'm executing that plan per month (for two years) and every buy is under my target. I'm waiting for a crash so I can put more in, but it isn't happening! I'm having a hard time getting rid of my cash in the market with that strategy.

That's because "value averaging" is not, in fact, a good strategy. It sounds good, but when you actually sit down and look at it work through the numbers, it isn't.

Google "problems with value averaging"

 

[Surewhitey]

I look to sell toppy stocks. This month I've sold 4; bought only 1; 25% cash right now for more opportunities.

 

[timo2]

I'd be more concerned about the effect of Federal Reserve policy than the small group of wealthy investors to whom you refer.

Well then there is that!

 

[Sniggle]

I love this run, but I am keeping my finger on the dump button. 401K has a couple of fixed income funds I can run to when I get scared. 401K is up almost 10% this year so far, and I would really like to chalk up another 10%+ return.

I do know that if I could count on my 401K to shed $75000 in profits every quarter, I would be one happy guy.