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Old 01-29-2008, 10:59 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Independent View Post
How do you know when peak oil is here (or almost here) ?

I think it's when the CEO of Shell Oil writes something like this:

About Shell - Two Energy Futures

right after he gets back from Davos.
Interesting article. And as you point out, Mr. Van der Veer is no hippie or radical green.

Ha
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Old 01-29-2008, 01:00 PM   #22
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True, but I doubt that we are anywhere near depleting it all... We haven't even found it all yet.
Maybe not; but it appears that we have found most of it.



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Usable alternatives like shale exist and are now economically feasible at 90 bucks a barrel... not so when it was less.
Take way too long to discuss this, but I think that is a very optimistic assertion.

Ha
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Old 01-29-2008, 01:14 PM   #23
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And, we're only addressing the fuel side of this.

The DOE has a great page for kids on what else oil and oil byproducts are used in:
nonrenewable - OIL/Petroleum

I'm not an alarmist or anything, but I'm pumped about retiring and living a more agrarian lifestyle. However, even the lfiestyle I have in mind will start to degrade if we run out of oil. Even if I'm making my own biodiesel, I need tires, belts, etc.

As a counterpoint, there are an estimated 5-16 billion barrels of oil in Alaska's north slope. A realistic estimate I've seen is that we could get 5-8 billion (the 16 billion calls for us getting lucky, basically). I'm sure we'll end up drilling there at some point, but the question is when and what does the world look like then (maybe talks about resource wars aren't so odd when you project 20-50 years down the road).

To put that into perspective the US uses >20million barrels daily. 10 billion barrels gets us 500days worth...

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Old 01-29-2008, 02:10 PM   #24
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Maybe not; but it appears that we have found most of it.





Take way too long to discuss this, but I think that is a very optimistic assertion.

Ha
As per USGS "growth of oil reserves in previously discovered fields exceeded new-field discoveries as a source of global additions to reserves of conventional oil by a factor of about 3 to 1" and total world oil reserves grew by 240B barrels between 1996-2003 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1021/pdf/OF07-1021_508.pdf). That's not to say that we should not be concerned with conservation or alternative energy sources, of course.
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Old 01-29-2008, 02:16 PM   #25
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As per USGS "growth of oil reserves in previously discovered fields exceeded new-field discoveries as a source of global additions to reserves of conventional oil by a factor of about 3 to 1" and total world oil reserves grew by 240B barrels between 1996-2003 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1021/pdf/OF07-1021_508.pdf). That's not to say that we should not be concerned with conservation or alternative energy sources, of course.
This is highly questionable statement. Remember, there are strong incentives for OPEC countries in particular to add paper reserves; their quotas are based on claimed reserves.

Oil reserves are a nebulous idea. In non OECD countries they are not audited. How much credence would you put in non-audited financial statements?

Rserves are an assertion; discoveries are a fact.

A $10,000 bet on peak oil | Columnists | Jeff Sanford | Canadian Business Online

Ha
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Old 01-29-2008, 02:30 PM   #26
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This is highly questionable statement. Remember, there are strong incentives for OPEC countries in particular to add paper reserves; their quotas are based on claimed reserves.

Oil reserves are a nebulous idea. In non OECD countries they are not audited. How much credence would you put in non-audited financial statements?

Rserves are an assertion; discoveries are a fact.

Ha
I think they're both assertions in that case. After all, the size of any new discovery is an estimate just like a revision in the size of an existing field is an estimate.

I agree that none of these numbers are 100% reliable, but I would go with data from an established authority (USGS) over ASPO until there's some evidence that ASPO's data is more objective or more accurate.
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Old 01-29-2008, 03:17 PM   #27
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I think they're both assertions in that case. After all, the size of any new discovery is an estimate just like a revision in the size of an existing field is an estimate.

I agree that none of these numbers are 100% reliable, but I would go with data from an established authority (USGS) over ASPO until there's some evidence that ASPO's data is more objective or more accurate.
You are so correct. None of this data can be taken at face value. You pay your money and take your choice.

It does seem to me that while there are clear reasons to cheat up reserves, why would the same producers cheat down discoveries?

I like puzzles, and for me this one has been resolved. So far greatly to my profit I should add.

Ha
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Old 01-29-2008, 04:05 PM   #28
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The car companies had electric cars on their drawing boards since I was a kid... if only I could find that Mechanics magazine and others from my high school days. The choose not to do anything about it for whatever reasons... hmmm (musing) think if GM or Ford had taken the lead 10 years ago with electric cars, they may have avoided the sh*t they're in now.
Probably because it simply wasn't economically feasible at the time. Battery energy densities are going way up recently - I get some radio control modeling magazines and electrics are now on a par with alcohol-fueled glow engines. That is, the power-to-weight ratio is getting equal for that application. But these normally don't run for more than 30 minutes, tops.

Gasoline has a much higher BTU content per volume than alcohol, and that's the target batteries have to match - at a similar cost - before electric cars will beat out gasoline-fueled cars. It's getting closer and I think we'll see it within ten years if not sooner.

Of course, where is all that electricity going to come from? Coal, for the most part.
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Old 01-29-2008, 05:05 PM   #29
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There are plenty on differing opinions on peak oil. Hard to know what is true. Some of the things I've seen and read the last year or so lead me to believe that the move away from oil has begun. How long it will take is anybodies guess. While it may take longer than some of us would like, it may be sooner than most realize.
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Old 01-29-2008, 11:58 PM   #30
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There are plenty on differing opinions on peak oil. Hard to know what is true. Some of the things I've seen and read the last year or so lead me to believe that the move away from oil has begun. How long it will take is anybodies guess. While it may take longer than some of us would like, it may be sooner than most realize.
Agreed. We may even get to an environment where we will have severe gas and oil shortages, power outages, food and goods shortages due to energy costs (transportation), ...etc.
I hope it never gets to that, but that is when the government and industry wakes up (and sometimes goes back to sleep again, remember the gas lines of the 70's?) and takes action (good, bad, or otherwise).
I am a big believer in the market place and that it (eventually) fixes any gaps. It's the eventually part that worries me. I hate it when the power goes out... damn annoying.
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Old 01-30-2008, 12:27 AM   #31
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I like (and subscribe to) some of Henry Groppe's thoughts on peak oil. His think tank does a lot of analysis examining the supply and demand balances and how prices will affect both supply growth (if any) from here on, and demand. His firm is in the midst of an exhaustive multi-year study to examine supply/demand behaviours in each country (literally hundreds of micro studies to plug into a global model).

Generally speaking, he believes we are approximately at peak oil supply (and demand) give-or-take a few additional million barrels of day of supply growth. Demand is currently at about 87 million barrels per day with perhaps only another 5-8 million barrels per day of supply capability beyond that (94 million barrels per day) depending on price. He also expects it to oscillate up/down a bit over some indefinite period of time, e.g. 5-10 years, before starting a slow, but permanent, downward trend. IOW, demand will shrink slowly because price will force more energy conservation. He also expects GDP growth around the world will slow considerably as the price of energy becomes a headwind in economic growth. But we will still be using oil a long time after anyone that is alive today is already dead. It is just a question of what remaining oil will be used for over the long haul.
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Old 01-30-2008, 01:19 PM   #32
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IIRC the book I read (Beyond Peak Oil), predicted wild fluctuations in oil price near the peak.
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