Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-11-2008, 01:51 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,384
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52 View Post
Hey, I've actually got one stock up today, NM. And it wasn't any stinking broker who recommended it. Now if I can just remember who did.:confused:
I think that was one of Brewer's.

Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-11-2008, 01:56 PM   #22
Full time employment: Posting here.
Kronk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Philly 'burbs
Posts: 547
Even though I've got a quarter mil in the market (okay, only 200k in stocks), I'm hoping for a long bear market. In my 30's, in my accumulation phase, if it stays low over the next 10 years while I keep socking money, I should be in good shape.

That is, as long as I can keep my current income...
__________________

__________________
Kronk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 01:57 PM   #23
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,860
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan View Post
.... and use your windfall to invest in a bear market.
I have been considering that! Now, if only I had the psychic capabilities required to detect when we have hit bottom.

I'll probably just keep DCA'ing into the market, since it seems to be allowing me to sleep at night. That will mean monthly equity investments until 2009. Still, the bear market could be with us, or perhaps even worse, in 2009.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 01:59 PM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
retire@40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
Quote:
Originally Posted by rs0460a View Post
If you are concerned about this current "contraction" and are retired, I would have to respond that you haven't financially prepared yourself for retirement (in a good manner).
I would agree with that too (that's why I didn't make the commitment yet )

I'm not even close to panic mode yet since I have many years of cash in FDIC bank accounts and I have (even today) enough in my portfolio to sustain a higher than bare bones budget. Yet, I'm glad I still have a self-employed revenue stream outside my portfolio that I can ramp up whenever I want, even though I will do my best not to.

Although even those with a portfolio giving off a comfortable 4% SWR with some fluff built in may have some uneasiness these days.
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
retire@40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:02 PM   #25
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurencewill View Post
I know some of you have lost six figures, but I've never experienced this kind of drubbing before... I won't leave the game plan, but it hurts nonetheless.
Yes. Happened to my DW/me in the 2000-02 timeframe (and has done so, this year). The "flip side" was that we paid off our current home in August 1999 (30-year note, paid off in 5.5 years - through a radical LBYM lifestyle ), and used the "payment" to increase our respective 401k's to the max, resulting in "buying cheap" in the subsequent down years.

The result? I'll let you figure that one out ...

- Ron
__________________
rs0460a is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:06 PM   #26
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurencewill View Post
This is my first experience with a five figure loss on my portfolio, and it's definitely a weird feeling. I know some of you have lost six figures, but I've never experienced this kind of drubbing before. It's north of $20k now but I don't want to do the exact math. I won't leave the game plan, but it hurts nonetheless.
A good antidote is to remind yourself that when the market is way up, you don't really "own" all those gains; they'll drop sooner or later. Just like when they're way down, you are not really fully on the hook for it since they'll eventually go up. Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:08 PM   #27
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Still, the bear market could be with us, or perhaps even worse, in 2009.
Hey - that's only 174 days away ...

- Ron
__________________
rs0460a is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:12 PM   #28
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.
Exactly! And remember that you are not going to "sell your entire portfolio" on that day (regardless if it is up or down).

You probably will sell a few profitable holdings to fund your "income bucket" on up years, and live on that "bucket" (aka "feedbag" ) on years such as this.

You didn't invest in a year - you won't withdraw in a year.

- Ron
__________________
rs0460a is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:18 PM   #29
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,860
Quote:
Originally Posted by rs0460a View Post
Hey - that's only 174 days away ...

- Ron
Very true! For me, market gyrations are trickier to predict than a roulette wheel, though. We could be at 7000 or 15000 in another six months, or still at 11000.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:37 PM   #30
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,093
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Very true! For me, market gyrations are trickier to predict than a roulette wheel, though. We could be at 7000 or 15000 in another six months, or still at 11000.

It's at 11,000 already Must be another down day then I suppose.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:44 PM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 352
My job, medical defense and product liability attorney, was very stressful. A mistake could cost a client millions and expose me and my partners to liability. Mistakes could not happen. I could have stayed in another five or eight years until my mid sixties and banked another few hundred thousand dollars. I wouldn't trade the stress and some of the (so far) healthiest (less stress, more balance) years of my adult life for more cushion when I'm 85.
__________________
windsurf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:44 PM   #32
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 899
Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40 View Post
I'm glad I haven't made the commitment to fully retire yet.

I'm glad I still have a business going......mmmmmm.....and a job that provides enough cash flow to keep me afloat.

One of the benefits of staying semi-retired is to be able to test the ER waters while still having the ability to ramp up the earned income if needed.
Watch out. The RE gods may take away your magic FIRE decoder ring
__________________
mb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:50 PM   #33
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
I always try to look at the the positive regarding my investment portfolio. The best I can say is that at least it is outperforming my Real Estate holdings...
__________________
Westernskies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 02:54 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
A good antidote is to remind yourself that when the market is way up, you don't really "own" all those gains; they'll drop sooner or later. Just like when they're way down, you are not really fully on the hook for it since they'll eventually go up. Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.

Sorry to say Rich... but this is the kind of thinking that makes no sense to me.... like "you do not have a loss until you sell".... well, yes you do.. not a 'recognized loss' as such, but a loss none the less...

And you do have a gain when the market goes up... because if you could sell the stock that day and have all the money.. so it is 'real'... again, just not recognized or monitized...

I bet you don't buy a new $30K car, drive it for 10 years and think... wow, I am driving around in a car worth $30K because I have not sold it yet.... nope, it is worth less... you have a 'loss'...

But then again, I hear so many people say the same thing to justify their thinking... it must come from someplace...

The true accountant in me says you 'mark to market' every day (or every month or whatever)... and you either made money or lost money from the previous day or month....
__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 03:04 PM   #35
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
The true accountant in me says you 'mark to market' every day (or every month or whatever)... and you either made money or lost money from the previous day or month....
Respectfully, I respond that you are caught in "short term" (investor) thinking.

Did I lose $$$ since January 1'st of this year? Yes!

Did I lose $$$ since I started investing 25+ years ago (allowing for inflation and my contributions)? Nope!

It's the same as that old song sung by Kenny Rodgers, "The Gambler" in which he sings:

"You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.

There'll be time enough for countin when the dealins done".

As for me? I'm still at the table ...

- Ron
__________________
rs0460a is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 03:07 PM   #36
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
A good antidote is to remind yourself that when the market is way up, you don't really "own" all those gains; they'll drop sooner or later. Just like when they're way down, you are not really fully on the hook for it since they'll eventually go up. Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.
That's exactly how I got through all previous bears since 1972 while in the accumulation phase. My way of thinking was to note the paper bottom line and estimate where I thought it would "hold": usually 10, 20 or 30% lower. I slept well with that kind of thinking even when I did lose 30%. I'm so conservative now that I'm out of the accumulation phase that my paper line went up somewhat yesterday but as you say I don't really own that exact amount.
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 03:21 PM   #37
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
Equity prices change minute to minute while the stock market is open for business. You are always winning and losing all day long. At some point you need to arbitrarily declare a benchmark: up for the day, down for the week, up for the month, up for the year, whatever. You can cry in your beer or celebrate every 3 minutes if you define your end-points that close. For an investor who is in it for the long haul, it makes little emotional sense to experience remorse or elation over very short term fluctuations.

To me it makes much more emotional sense to establish your starting and ending points with some relationship to your anticipated investing or harvesting. What you refer to as "recognized" gains may be real but unless they are exercised, they are potential and fleeting more than actual in this context.

So I think you are probably right in a bookkeeping sense, but for the posters who express a wide range of unpleasant emotional reactions to the market's gyrations, the buy and sell dates seem to be a much more user-friendly way of looking at it. And it fits real-life circumstances better, for me: I lose 20% this year on investments I plan to sell in 13 months, I'm right to be remorseful. OTOH if I plan to hold them for 20 yrs, I really shouldn't give a hoot about the bad year they just had.

Different ways of looking at the same circumstances, I guess.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 03:52 PM   #38
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 197
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kronk View Post
Even though I've got a quarter mil in the market (okay, only 200k in stocks), I'm hoping for a long bear market. In my 30's, in my accumulation phase, if it stays low over the next 10 years while I keep socking money, I should be in good shape.

That is, as long as I can keep my current income...
That's the key, isn't it?

It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own. ~Harry S. Truman
__________________
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2008, 03:52 PM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 6,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
but this is the kind of thinking that makes no sense to me.... like "you do not have a loss until you sell".... well, yes you do.. not a 'recognized loss' as such, but a loss none the less...

And you do have a gain when the market goes up... because if you could sell the stock that day and have all the money.. so it is 'real'... again, just not recognized or monitized...

I bet you don't buy a new $30K car, drive it for 10 years and think... wow, I am driving around in a car worth $30K because I have not sold it yet.... nope, it is worth less... you have a 'loss'...

The true accountant in me says you 'mark to market' every day (or every month or whatever)... and you either made money or lost money from the previous day or month....
I have to say, I'm glad you're not my accountant. You'd have me paying capital gains taxes on stocks I haven't sold yet. And that car analogy doesn't make any sense to me. Apples and oranges.

Speaking of Apple, when I bought the stock in the early 90s at around $10, that's what I had invested. I didn't lose money when it dropped into the $4 range, because I wasn't going to sell. It did matter when I sold 2/3 of it last year at $180, because I got real money for it. And even though the remainder of it is down from that level it doesn't matter because I'm not selling anytime soon. If it goes up into BRK.A levels and I don't sell, and then comes back down to today's levels and I don't sell, I haven't gained or lost anything, except for having missed a great market timing opportunity. I miss those all the time.

Harley
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers, or maybe Sam Clemens
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Putting things in perspective
Old 07-11-2008, 03:57 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 454
Putting things in perspective

Since last October's high this has been a turbulent period for equities and unsettling for many many people. It stinks (I could be more vulgar) to lose money. I have just hit the magic number of seeing a 6 digit decline from the high my portfolio achieved in Oct '07. HOWEVER, as a percentage decline I am down 9.6%. Now considering the S&P was down this morning 20.8% from it's October high I feel a little better.

I don't like current events, it can be a daily concern, but I am long way from needing go from P/T to F/T work. I am going to continue evaluating my situation annually not daily.

I am comforted by having at least 8 years in cash to cover living expenses, and that could probably last 12 to 16 years with part-time work. That is a big cushion I think and it gives me comfort. Holding this much cash was part of my plan, a plan to deal with a bad case scenario.
__________________

__________________
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:45 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.