Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-07-2003, 05:44 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 80
Paul Grangaard's Books

Anyone read "The Grangaard Strategy: Invest Right During Retirement" by Paul Grangaard? I see he's got another book "Plan Right for Retirement With the Grangaard Strategy" out this month.

I saw mention of his book in today's paper. Would be interested if anyone on this board has read either of them and their opinion.

Moguls
(still figuring out this ER stuff)
__________________

__________________
moguls is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-08-2003, 12:02 PM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 961
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

Moguls,

I've recently read "The Grangaard Strategy". I thought the pages where he details how to go about building a bond ladder were very good.

However, I had some problems with the pages "showing" that stocks are safe long term investments (e.g. that the risks of stocks decreases as time increases). This is a commonly held myth that should not be accepted without some further research.

Any specific questions about the book?

- Alec
__________________

__________________
ats5g is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-08-2003, 01:40 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 80
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

Thanks for the feedback. No specific questions. I picked up a copy today.

Moguls
(Still getting use to this ER thing)
__________________
moguls is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-09-2003, 04:42 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

Congrats! Now you have time to read the book and give us a synopsis. B. Dalton had nothing by Grangaard when I started Christmas shopping in the mall yesterday - in ER you get to do things during non-rush hours - after ten years I still get the jollies watching the morning rush hour crossing the lake in the distance from the back deck.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-09-2003, 05:58 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

P.S. - I did buy the Warren Buffet Way and Your Money or Your Life. Ten plus years into ER perhaps a little late but intend to read them anyway.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-17-2003, 10:18 AM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 452
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

I have read Graangard's book and got pretty excited about his philosophy. Then I put a few posts here about it, and it was pretty much ripped by several posters. Here's what they don't like and I can't dispute them. You have 2 ladders, 1 for income and 1 for growth. So, probably about 50 - 50 in each. The growth ladder is stocks, the income ladder is, maybe, bonds. You use up the income ladder over a 10 year period. Meanwhile the growth ladder grows and grows for 10 years. And after 10 years, you have more than you started with. BUT, during that period, you gradually build your stock allocation from 50 percent to 100 percent. So, you never re-balance your portfolio.
Seems dangerous doesn't it ? His idea may be good theory, but what if you run into bad times from year 6 thru 8? Like we did from 2000 thru 2002. You'd lose a lot of money and would not have time to recoup.
What's the answer? what should you do ? what should I do? DON"T KNOW. But I do want to be conservative, more so that Graangard. And I do like the 4% rule .... only withdraw 4% per year.
__________________
renferme is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-17-2003, 03:47 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 80
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

Just finished the book. I found it to be an interesting read, but didn't take away much of value.

First of all his analysis relies on much higher expectations for growth than I'm comfortable with. He's looking for 10% from large cap stocks and 12% from small caps. Even with an estimated 3% inflation rate, this lets him use a 6% initial withdrawal rate in his example.

I'm not comfortable using much more than 7 - 8% combined growth for stocks. And 6% is way beyond my comfort level for a safe initial withdrawal rate.

Grangaard recommends 10 years expense buffer made up of various fixed income investments. His reasoning for 10 years is that if you sell stocks more frequently than that (on average), you're leaving significant growth on the table and therefore will end up with a much smaller portfolio when you die. He outlines an example of a 5yr and a 10yr withdrawal strategy to support his claim.

I personally like the longer expense buffer, but in many cases this may result in such a large portion of one's portfolio in fixed income investments that there's too little left to be invested in stocks to generate the necessary growth.

Moguls
(still getting used to this ER lifestyle)

__________________
moguls is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books
Old 12-17-2003, 04:40 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 768
Re: Paul Grangaard's Books

Today's low dividend yield, and high P/E ratios may reduce future long term returns on the S&P a bit below the historic norms.
__________________

__________________
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Withdrawal Rates in Paul Merrimans Book Hydroman FIRE and Money 17 05-10-2006 05:14 PM
Paul Strauss WCRTdotORG Hi, I am... 12 08-06-2005 12:40 AM
Read Any Good Books Lately on FIRE? RatherBeFishn Life after FIRE 17 04-18-2005 11:54 AM
Recommended Financial Books gary Life after FIRE 16 12-14-2004 04:31 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:20 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.