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Old 12-25-2012, 07:20 PM   #21
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we bailed out of the gnmas's yesterday. our newsletter made a switch and that fund was dropped from the line up going forward.
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Old 12-26-2012, 09:25 AM   #22
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we bailed out of the gnmas's yesterday. our newsletter made a switch and that fund was dropped from the line up going forward.
What was the rationale used to drop GNMA? Just curious - what's the batting average (or effectiveness) of the newsletter?
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Old 12-26-2012, 09:37 AM   #23
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we bailed out of the gnmas's yesterday. our newsletter made a switch and that fund was dropped from the line up going forward.
That move seems rather odd to me as well. Although if it is to buy a different bond fund, it might make more sense.
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Old 12-26-2012, 09:38 AM   #24
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What was the rationale used to drop GNMA? Just curious - what's the batting average (or effectiveness) of the newsletter?
I remember this from a previous thread. Doesn't answer your GNMA question.

My Asset Allocation History (past 9 years)
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Old 12-26-2012, 09:39 AM   #25
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we bailed out of the gnmas's yesterday. our newsletter made a switch and that fund was dropped from the line up going forward.
And what did they use to replace it?
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Old 12-26-2012, 10:14 AM   #26
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Everyone should take a look at Vanguard's limited term Tax Exempt bond fund. it pays around 80 basis points, better than short term or CD's or money market funds. I'm holding a lot of money there instead of money market or long term bonds. Rates will go up, sooner or later and if anyone remembers when they went to 20% in the early 1980's, you, like me, would be a little careful today. The good news is that your short term bonds will probably pay 2 or 3% when interest rates rise. So, when rates go up you'll have the option to switch to longer term bonds or stay in shorter term getting more dividends each month with less risk missing out than in cash or long term.

Really, there is no answer anyone can depend on.......we don't know what will happen with taxes or when. ......if we did we'd be able to predict the future a lot better.
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Old 12-26-2012, 11:12 AM   #27
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Everyone should take a look at Vanguard's limited term Tax Exempt bond fund.
Definitely is much better than holding cash. Muni bond funds could remain attractive as income tax rates will most likely go up for everyone.
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Old 12-26-2012, 11:24 AM   #28
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Everyone should take a look at Vanguard's limited term Tax Exempt bond fund. it pays around 80 basis points, better than short term or CD's or money market funds. ...
I took a peak at this fund and the duration is 2.4 years. So it's not really cash and should probably be compared to a short term bond fund like VFSUX or to a CD that is 2 years out.

VFSUX has a 1.2% SEC yield versus VMLUX at 0.6%. I'm not in the tax bracket where this makes sense to switch but others may be. I don't really know how to compare the Muni short term bonds to investment grade bond risks and that is another thing to look at. Probably being short term, both are comparable.
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Old 12-26-2012, 01:30 PM   #29
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I remember this from a previous thread. Doesn't answer your GNMA question.

My Asset Allocation History (past 9 years)
So what is the connection?
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Old 12-26-2012, 01:34 PM   #30
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So what is the connection?
I think Dawg was responding to this question:
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- what's the batting average (or effectiveness) of the newsletter?
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:05 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Spanky
- what's the batting average (or effectiveness) of the newsletter?


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I think Dawg was responding to this question:
Correct. That was part of the question.
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:08 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Spanky
- what's the batting average (or effectiveness) of the newsletter?



Correct. That was part of the question.
Now I've got it, thanks...
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:31 PM   #33
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That move seems rather odd to me as well. Although if it is to buy a different bond fund, it might make more sense.
yes we swapped it for another type of bond fund.

international bonds have been showing alot more promise as the gnma's performance has slowed way down.

we have mature international companies going global now that are looking for financing.

emerging market bonds had a hell of a run up . international bonds seem to be ramping up.

of course its only 1 fund in the portfolio thats being swapped so right or wrong its never a really big issue.
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:32 PM   #34
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Much as I love Vanguard, IMHO Sauter's forecasts about interest rate directions are worth about as much as Warren Buffett's and everyone elses: nothing. The "gurus" have been calling for higher bond interest rates for years, while meanwhile most of us would've been better off holding 100% 30 year Treasurys for the past decade:

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/f...rmance/TLT.htm
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:34 PM   #35
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And what did they use to replace it?
im kind of limited to what i can say since we all pay for that information.i can not really get to specific about the models.

sorry.
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:35 PM   #36
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Many "experts" say that bond return will most likely be about 1-2% + current yield.
Where is this extra 1-2% to come from?

Ha
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:41 PM   #37
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What was the rationale used to drop GNMA? Just curious - what's the batting average (or effectiveness) of the newsletter?
i have been following them for 25 years now. followed the growth model up until about 5 years ago. was up about 1200% cagr since 1987.

switched to the income mix and the returns have been fine, up around 11% this year with 2/3 less volatility then the s&p.

nothing i couldnt do on my own but the fact is i dont have to even think about my next move or second guess myself.
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Old 12-26-2012, 03:05 PM   #38
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im kind of limited to what i can say since we all pay for that information.i can not really get to specific about the models.

sorry.
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i have been following them for 25 years now. followed the growth model up until about 5 years ago. was up about 1200% cagr since 1987.

switched to the income mix and the returns have been fine, up around 11% this year with 2/3 less volatility then the s&p.

nothing i couldnt do on my own but the fact is i dont have to even think about my next move or second guess myself.
Here is a sample issue of the newsletter. I'm not a member, but for someone needing a little hand holding(me).....might not be a bad investment.

http://www.fmandi.com/reports/archive/FMI0912.pdf

mathjak, how often do they adjust the income portfolio on average? Just curious.
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Old 12-26-2012, 03:22 PM   #39
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prior to the change on friday i believe last one was around june or so.
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Old 12-26-2012, 03:26 PM   #40
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Here is a sample issue of the newsletter. I'm not a member, but for someone needing a little hand holding(me).....might not be a bad investment.

http://www.fmandi.com/reports/archive/FMI0912.pdf

mathjak, how often do they adjust the income portfolio on average? Just curious.
wow im surprised they archived such a recent issue. i guess because they merged with fidelity monitor,it was kind of historical.

what i like about them is all the pressure is off marilyn and i to keep deciding what to do.

many times left to my own devices i know i would have tried to time things or bail at the wrong time.

while i can put portfolios together in my sleep what i can not get is the freedom from second guessing myself.
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