Russian Invasion on Ukraine...

[srlimoges]

How would you best play the market for maximum return in this probable scenario?

- Short a particular sector
- Short a certain stock
- Buy Gold

The actual economic impact on the US would probably be minimal and doing nothing or pulling money out would certainly be safe moves. ...But the emotional market would react short term and being prepared to capitalize on this opportunity could be lucrative.

How would you make a quick profit from the market?

 

[Running_Man]

Ukraine if the conflict escalates has major implications for Europe and USA. There is expectation that Russia would not sink their economy in order to retaliate but there is major damage that could be done to us and European economies. The major initial effect would probably be the opening of shipping natural gas to Europe which would cause USA natural gas prices to likely double or triple
There is in general less of a realization of how interconnected many of our contracts that could be voided by Russia and what those effects would have on USA, much less Germany and the rest of Europe.

 

[adrift]

How would you best play the market for maximum return in this probable scenario?
...
How would you make a quick profit from the market?

I don't tend to "play the market". But, this ETF: RUSL would look good. It leverages the rational bet by 300%.

 

[pb4uski]

I'm an investor, not a gambler. IMO playing the market for specific events such as this is a fool's errand.

You have to have good insight as to the outcome of the event as well as good insight of how the market will react to the outcome.

 

[MRG]

Too risky, or I'm not smart enough, for my play money.
MRG

 

[frayne]

One word fer ya, mean reversion !

 

[robnplunder]

I'm an investor, not a gambler. IMO playing the market for specific events such as this is a fool's errand.

You have to have good insight as to the outcome of the event as well as good insight of how the market will react to the outcome.

+1 and no such insights for me. If had them, I could have RE'd decades ago.

 

[srlimoges]

I respect the opinions of those who would forgo the opportunity. This isn't exactly a risk diverse play

Adrift - love the leveraged Russia fund. This is the exact play that I'd research and likely use. Also found the inverse 3x leveraged fund ticker which is RUSS

fun fun

 

[Fermion]

I think the Ukraine thing will blow over and whoever invested in Russia is going to make out like a bandit. It sort of has to blow over because the alternative is not so great.

 

[haha]

I think the Ukraine thing will blow over and whoever invested in Russia is going to make out like a bandit. It sort of has to blow over because the alternative is not so great.

Pretty much like all the conflicts up to today have blown over. WW2, WW1, Mexican American War, Napoleon's March into Russia, the Peloponnesian War, the US War between the states, the War of 1812, none of them ever happened.

IMO, Ukraine will all be in Russia's hands sooner or later, and likely sooner. Who is going to go in there with troops to prevent this? We are fully occupied fighting inequality here at home. Angela thinks that Vlad has a point, and this is a bit large for Britain and France to take on. Besides, Poland and Germany are in between, what's the worry?

This does not mean that your thesis on Russian investments is wrong, it likely is right.

Ha

 

[Fermion]

Pretty much like all the conflicts up to today have blown over. WW2, WW1, Mexican American War, Napoleon's March into Russia, the Peloponnesian War, the US War between the states, the War of 1812, none of them ever happened.

More like Grenada is what I was thinking. The USA was still a good place to invest after Grenada.

 

[NYEXPAT]

I had the opportunity to host some Muscovite's last weekend and we talked about Putin for quite some time. To much Whiskey was consumed but my takeaway is that Putin would not go in. The general gist was that a destabilized Ukraine is better than a pro-west Ukraine and I expect this to drag on for quite some time. I watch the ETF daily and almost pulled the trigger last month but luckily got distracted by some other opportunities.

 

[LOL!]

Well, it looks like Putin wants to start World War III.

I have been impressed with the chess match that has been played out. The guy can just simply lie through his teeth in the face of all evidence to the contrary. The US can learn something from the way this has unfolded.
"Those aren't our soldiers."
"Those aren't our tanks."
"Oh, we cannot help it if some of our citizens go on vacation with guns, tanks, and rocket launchers in Ukraine."

Yes, indeed, a well-played chess match and the Russians are very good at it. Very very good.

I am also reminded of the Monty Python dead parrot sketch.

I think the Europeans need to sort this one out for themselves though. Why are Canadian fighter jets flying near the Russian border? Shouldn't the German, French, Italian, and Polish jets be there first?

 

[robnplunder]

Well, it looks like Putin wants to start World War III.

I have been impressed with the chess match that has been played out. The guy can just simply lie through his teeth in the face of all evidence to the contrary. The US can learn something from the way this has unfolded.
"Those aren't our soldiers."
"Those aren't our tanks."
"Oh, we cannot help it if some of our citizens go on vacation with guns, tanks, and rocket launchers in Ukraine."

Yes, indeed, a well-played chess match and the Russians are very good at it. Very very good.

I am also reminded of the Monty Python dead parrot sketch.

I think the Europeans need to sort this one out for themselves though. Why are Canadian fighter jets flying near the Russian border? Shouldn't the German, French, Italian, and Polish jets be there first?

Back to OP before this gets closed as a political thread ....

The market today behaved rather well despite the "invasion" news. My best fund this year has been an international bond fund (up 11% YTD). It has a lot of Russian components. I bet the fund's performance would have been much higher if it were not for Putin's exploits.

 

[dallas27]

Ignoring how this incident may play out, what i see is a long term escalation. This isn't putin's first military excursion. He's shown his hand, he wants ukraines resources, which are vast. He's got no problem using force.

Long term, he will continue to create ever more instability to gain what he can, however he can. Each action will be bolder than the last, especially as he ages and become weaker physically.

Unknowable- will his people kill him before he creates a fight big enough to suck us in.

Bigger concern, will china ever team up with russia.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[ERhoosier]

Too unpredictable a situation for me. Not so concerned about WWIII, although it's certainly possible with Russian miscalculation. More concerned with a trade war between European Union and Russia ultimately dragging the US economy down with it. With most stock markets at or near all-time highs and global interest rates at historic lows, I'm quite content holding a large cash position at the moment

 

[ejman]

Ukraine's history has been so intertwined with Russia's over the century's that it's very hard for me to really get worked up over the deep cultural/sociological motivations behind current events other than think that Putin thinks "this is my lawn and everybody else stay off". Just in the recent past Soviet Premier Khrushchev was half Ukrainian and I think for centuries Russians have felt Ukraine is really part of mother Russia, Certainly it seems to me more like a local breakaway fight ( shades of 1861 ) than something the US ought to risk WWIII over.

 

[brewer12345]

Too unpredictable a situation for me. Not so concerned about WWIII, although it's certainly possible with Russian miscalculation. More concerned with a trade war between European Union and Russia ultimately dragging the US economy down with it. With most stock markets at or near all-time highs and global interest rates at historic lows, I'm quite content holding a large cash position at the moment

I have thought since the beginning of this fracas that the main thing that will happen that is worth watching (economically) is Russia shutting off the supply of natural gas to points west. This has not bitten too badly just yet, but the longer this posturing goes on the closer we get to winter. It will be very cold in the Ukraine and very expensive in Europe without Russian gas supplies.

 

[ejman]

I have thought since the beginning of this fracas that the main thing that will happen that is worth watching (economically) is Russia shutting off the supply of natural gas to points west. This has not bitten too badly just yet, but the longer this posturing goes on the closer we get to winter. It will be very cold in the Ukraine and very expensive in Europe without Russian gas supplies.

Although short term what you describe will be difficult for Western Europe, long term it will be even more difficult for Russia. It might be difficult for Russia to regain those markets after a lengthy supply interruption.

 

[brewer12345]

Although short term what you describe will be difficult for Western Europe, long term it will be even more difficult for Russia. It might be difficult for Russia to regain those markets after a lengthy supply interruption.

A possibility, although it is expensive and time consuming to reroute gas pipelines and/or find permanent, secure sources of alternate supply that are not extremely expensive ($20 per MCF anyone?). I also think Putin does not give a crap about that sort of thing if he can achieve territory/power goals by using energy as a weapon. I would expect that we will see more European buyers show up the next time a new natural gas export terminal is approved in the US or Canada.

 

[ronin]

One word - Vodka

The finest distillery in Texas... Tito's. Stock up, soon.

 

[brewer12345]

One word - Vodka

The finest distillery in Texas... Tito's. Stock up, soon.

I am far more concerned about the looming shortage of quality bourbon.

 

[ronin]

A man after my own heart.

 

[CoolChange]

I am far more concerned about the looming shortage of quality bourbon.

I cannot believe you would start that kind of fear mongering around here. Where are our moderators?!?!? (I may be a bit sensitive to this because of my own personal shortage at the moment.)

How would you best play the market for maximum return in this probable scenario?
...
- Buy Gold
...

This is what I have done. Not so much to turn a quick profit (although, I would not turn that down) but rather to diversify my overall portfolio.

...The major initial effect would probably be the opening of shipping natural gas to Europe which would cause USA natural gas prices to likely double or triple....

I am actually looking for a good way to gain natural gas exposure in my portfolio as another diversifier. So, I am watching this thread closely for good ideas in this space.

 

[brewer12345]

I cannot believe you would start that kind of fear mongering around here. Where are our moderators?!?!? (I may be a bit sensitive to this because of my own personal shortage at the moment.)



This is what I have done. Not so much to turn a quick profit (although, I would not turn that down) but rather to diversify my overall portfolio.



I am actually looking for a good way to gain natural gas exposure in my portfolio as another diversifier. So, I am watching this thread closely for good ideas in this space.

I can't help you on the bourbon shortage. I have started to accumulate a stockpile, but there is a limit to that. Short of firing up your own still, it is a pickle.

As far as nat gas goes, I am a bull on the space. I am comfy picking individual players, but there is a really simple way to get exposure: FCG. A handy ETF that is stuffed with domestic nat gas players.