China -> Taiwan

[Koolau]

I wouldn't be so quick to believe it's all a lie and the biggest mistake any nation can make is to underestimate its adversary. China has demonstrated a pretty decent ability to copy and produce goods and Xi and his party aren't going to let their economy backslide too much. I think the reality is we both need each other at least to a degree anyway. Not to mention the world is much better off if we can all get along and conduct regular commerce.

Yeah, I have no way of evaluating the Chinese military, but the "stories" make it seem at least part of their military is fairly advanced.

In any case, keep in mind, they have 100 million to 200 million "spare" men who could become an army at some point. Think of it as guys with no girls and nothing better to do on a Saturday night than go to war. They wouldn't even have to be good. Their only limiter would be transportation.

 

[Midpack]

Very easy to spread the USA thin.

+1. We’ve wasted trillions over the past 30 years with almost nothing to show for it. I’d love to explain, but Porky wouldn’t approve…

 

[Koolau]

+1. We’ve wasted trillions over the past 30 years with almost nothing to show for it. I’d love to explain, but Porky wouldn’t approve…

Yeah, wish we could discuss it, but I prefer my bacon with lettuce and mayo.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I'm not planning on doing anything in particular to hedge a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Other than maintaining a sensible AA and ensuring that my essential expenses are well below my SWA, not sure there is much one can do. The global economic impacts of even a failed invasion are too big to really measure.

Realistically, the US cannot prevent China from taking Taiwan anymore than China could prevent the US from taking Cuba. Geography and logistics are just too against it.

If China really wants Taiwan - consequences be damned - they will take it. Question is more whether the rest of Asia (and India) will line up against them in order prevent repeats of the same thing elsewhere.