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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-09-2006, 05:45 PM   #41
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Re: secular bear market

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How can we remain serious when you write this kinda stuff?
Shirley you jest...* :P

In 2000-2001, I was thinking recession, okay, maybe 10-20% down, no biggie...

When it blew right through 20%, I made some adjustments... As I said before, if things look drastic, I'm not so set in stone (or stoned) that I can't/won't adjust. But these things are hard to predict, and the list of maladies we face as individuals, a nation, and as humankind can be pretty daunting, if taken out of the context of history.

As for chicken bones, I prefer to look at the Hooter's waitresses, and let sleeping bones lie...*
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-09-2006, 09:05 PM   #42
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Re: secular bear market

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I'm curious, though, do the majority of low cost actively managed funds outperform the market as a whole during bear markets?
In my opinion the actives can do better than the index funds in sideways market and over a short period of time. The only problem is you have to pick the right ones. If I were to go that route I would select Vanguard's actives for small/mid cap and for large cap exposure I would find a concentrated fund with a low exp ratio - I don't think Vanguard has one.
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-09-2006, 09:12 PM   #43
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Re: secular bear market

Well if nobody else wants this jewel I'll take it.* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
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Shirley you jest...* :P
AND DON'T CALL ME SHIRLEY
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-10-2006, 08:45 AM   #44
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Re: secular bear market

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
And they have a 3 part business plan they adopted from a lot of successful internet companies.

1 - Steal underwear
2 -
3 - Profit!
I hope they steal your avatar's undies.
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-10-2006, 08:47 AM   #45
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Re: secular bear market

Glad you weren't talking to Jiggles... :P
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-10-2006, 11:19 AM   #46
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Re: secular bear market

I dont think Vida knows what underwear is, exactly.

Once again, like in the 'depression' thread, I'm drawn by deep curiousity to learn what NYCguy's expected outcome of this posting was.
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-12-2006, 04:50 AM   #47
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Re: secular bear market

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Originally Posted by HaHa
You would have to be blind not to tumble to the fact that much of what is happening on this board is dominance. A lot of intelligent guys who retired too early and no longer have a dominance ladder on which to compete with other guys. We should probably follow Jarhead's example and seriously take up some competitive sport which will let us strive in our accustomed way.


Ha
The greatest of all the posts and probably not too far from being right on the target. I'm still laughing reading it again and again.

As far as secular markets are concerned: I do not even wish to be long on a cyclical bear and secular long but I'm fine being long on a cyclical bull in a secular bear !
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-12-2006, 10:20 AM   #48
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Re: secular bear market

Most certainly the elements of dominance and aggression will come to the forefront of an issue, whether it has merits or not.

If we were all a bunch of wimps, we'd probably still be working as we'd be afraid of retiring.

In this particular issue, SG quite succinctly pointed out the specific points of why the topic as presented isnt particularly debatable and it disintegrated from there.

Its a bit of a leap to go from the act of diminishing fear and concern over unmeasurable events that may or may not come to be and have little predictability and an act of dominance for dominances sake...
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 06:43 AM   #49
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Re: secular bear market

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Originally Posted by Laurence
I'm curious, though, do the majority of low cost actively managed funds outperform the market as a whole during bear markets? If we could predict a bear market (big if) and select low cost (relative), actively managed funds to invest in to hedge against indexing....
In general, they do.

If one can predict with any degree of certainty about the bear market, the best investment will be cash. Ummm... second thought bear market fund or any fund that shorts the market.
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 08:07 AM   #50
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Re: secular bear market

I thought that was a myth...didnt berstein cover that in the four pillars...that actively managed funds in general didnt do better in a bear. It intuitively makes sense, that an active manager could 'steer out of the skid', but I thought the data said otherwise?
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 01:53 PM   #51
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Re: secular bear market

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
I thought that was a myth...didnt berstein cover that in the four pillars...that actively managed funds in general didnt do better in a bear.* It intuitively makes sense, that an active manager could 'steer out of the skid', but I thought the data said otherwise?
It is.* Look up SPIVA on the internet.* The question is not that straightforward.* There are always some active managed funds that beat indexing over a short enough period of time.* As the time period gets longer, the number of funds that beat the index diminishes.* Standard and Poor's runs a quarterly scorecard to look at managed versus index.* The margin that indexes beat managed funds is reduced in bear markets.* Occasionaly, I believe, you might find a quarter when just over 50% of the active funds beat the index.* But it is rare and it is short lived.

Quote:
SPIVA: S&P Index Versus Active Funds Scorecard

* * *

* The Standard & Poor's Index Versus Active (SPIVA) methodology is designed to provide an accurate and objective apples-to-apples comparison of fundsí performance versus their appropriate style indices, correcting for factors that have skewed results in previous index-versus-active analyses in the industry. SPIVA scorecards show both asset-weighted and equal-weighted averages, include survivorship bias correction to account for funds that may have merged or been liquidated during the period under study, and show style consistency for each style group across different time horizons.

The SPIVA Scorecards were developed by a cooperative effort between Standard & Poorís Quantitative Services, Funds Services and Index Services. Reports released every quarter track index versus fund performance on a quarterly, one-year, three-year and five-year basis.

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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 05:00 PM   #52
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Re: secular bear market

Thats what I was thinking..there havent been enough bear markets and they dont last long enough to get a clean indicator one way or the other.

Sure does make sense though that an actively managed fund SHOULD beat an index in a down or sideways market. That any of them dont with consistency sure says a lot about active management...
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 05:50 PM   #53
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Re: secular bear market

So how are funds like the value fund (you pointed me to the viper VTV) fit into this? Doesn't that get classified as an actively managed fund? And Wellington, Wellesly...VTV has been good to me, others have benefited from the other funds listed (I hold Wellington, too). I guess I'm curious, we fart spit in the general direction of active funds but hold them nonetheless.
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 06:08 PM   #54
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Re: secular bear market

I do, and those are good funds. Unlike a lot of actively managed funds though, they charge expenses like an index and dont have a lot of high turnover. Think of them as selective indexes...

I think the value viper is drawn from the large cap value index?
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-13-2006, 09:48 PM   #55
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Re: secular bear market

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Originally Posted by Laurence
Doesn't that get classified as an actively managed fund?* And Wellington, Wellesly...VTV has been good to me, others have benefited from the other funds listed (I hold Wellington, too).* I guess I'm curious, we fart spit in the general direction of active funds but hold them nonetheless.*
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Re: secular bear market
Old 03-14-2006, 01:54 AM   #56
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Re: secular bear market

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Originally Posted by Spanky
In general, they do.

If one can predict with any degree of certainty about the bear market, the best investment will be cash. Ummm... second thought bear market fund or any fund that shorts the market.
Well, you can do that at very low cost shorting QQQQ or spiders or whatever, knowing that bear markets cannot be traded symetrically as bull are. I mean, you can only be short during falling windows and cannot sustain pullbacks (while being short) whereas you can stay long (if not leveraged) while the market pullbacks when you're long on a bull.

Couple a words before going skiing. I'm getting addicted to this board !
Have a nice day.
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