Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 11,362
Well, was that ever a dog that didn't bark!* Here's a short squib from WSJ that illustrates how a pundit will never be at a loss for words:
The sharp decline in markets is notable, however, because it suggests that the primary issue is no longer whether the Fed is raising rates, but whether the economy has weakened to a point that will imperil economic growth. "To be honest, I would have expected a rally -- not a huge rally -- but one thing is, by him pausing, it introduces some uncertainty," said Richard O'Hara, portfolio manager and director of research at Wayne Hummer Asset Management. "What is he seeing that we're not?" (Subscription required)
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 10,537
I think stagflation is a legitimate worry right now. It doesn't look like the Fed has slain the inflation dragon and the rate increases and the slo-mo implosion of housing are choking off growth.
We've been in a recession since Clinton left office. Any of these things are small blips on a radar.
CT - I am certain you won't agree with this.* But, actually Bush inherited the Clinton recession.* *And, through the tax cuts at the beginning of his term, significantly dampened the severity of it.
CT - I am certain you won't agree with this. But, actually Bush inherited the Clinton recession. And, through the tax cuts at the beginning of his term, significantly dampened the severity of it.
I don't even think you agree with it!
I know that this is the GOP spin machine speaking, but we are all grownups here!
CT - I am certain you won't agree with this.* But, actually Bush inherited the Clinton recession.* *And, through the tax cuts at the beginning of his term, significantly dampened the severity of it.
I think stagflation is a legitimate worry right now. It doesn't look like the Fed has slain the inflation dragon and the rate increases and the slo-mo implosion of housing are choking off growth.
I agree - think we're getting boxed into a corner...growth in GNP will slow even more if lenders become reluctant to lend....
With MM rates at around 5% and FDIC Insured savings around 5% and all of the uncertainty in the equity markets these secure investments seem like a no brainer for the awhile.
Using the traditional yardstick of defining a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.. the U.S. has not had a recession since '90-'91. There was negative GDP growth in the third quarter of the year 2000, the first quarter of 2001, and finally the third quarter of 2001, which was caused almost entirely by the 9-11 tragedy.
People shouldn't politicize recessions. When they happen.. they happen. It's a normal part of the business cycle. You might as well blame the next one on your dog.
People shouldn't politicize recessions. When they happen.. they happen. It's a normal part of the business cycle. You might as well blame the next one on your dog.
Using the traditional yardstick of defining a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.. the U.S. has not had a recession since '90-'91. There was negative GDP growth in the third quarter of the year 2000, the first quarter of 2001, and finally the third quarter of 2001, which was caused almost entirely by the 9-11 tragedy.
God, i'm out of kool-aid. It's not slowdown in GDP growth, but rather a real decrease in GDP. Slower growth is STILL growth.
Edit: Andy- I think I may have read your post too fast and misunderstood what you wrote. 'negative growth' == contraction, but you might want to check your dates. Check this out.
I'm just sick of this administration's attempt to revise history.
Your politics are showing. Every administration tries to present itself in as much of a positive light as possible. It would be a sad state of affairs in this country if they didn't! After all.. they have a certain "cheerleader" role with regards to the economy as well.
Interesting graph showing GDP growth since 1946 with "recessions" superimposed over it.
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 10,537
Quote:
Originally Posted by IntoTheMystic
I agree - think we're getting boxed into a corner...growth in GNP will slow even more if lenders become reluctant to lend....
Funny you should mention that. I am aleady seeing signs of a pullback in the mortgage market, with banks backing away from the riskiest products (ultra low pay rate option ARMS, subprime mortgages to the riskiest borrowers, etc.). I think that this will ouch off the next leg of the downturn in the housing market as the marginal buyer is kicked out of the game by lack of access to mortgage money. You know what that means. And in the background, I see India and China announcing huge new infrastructure projects all the time.
Hint: take a look at what has happened to dry bulk (coal, cement, grain, etc.) shipping rates in the last 6 months. This happened even as a record number of new ships were built.
Hint: take a look at what has happened to dry bulk (coal, cement, grain, etc.) shipping rates in the last 6 months. This happened even as a record number of new ships were built.
Brewer, can you point me in the right direction or give me a link? I find some comments here and there but must not be looking in the right places for rate comparisons. I did find some mention of fleet utilization and rates for 'capesize" ships was up, but a London analyst said that was all because Chinese steel related demand was rapidly growing. I thought their govt was trying to slow down the growth in the steel industry by forcing out some of the smaller producers - doesn't seem to be working.
__________________ "If everything is under control, you are going too slow." - Mario Andretti
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