Social Security and Medicare cuts now on the table

Nancy Pelosi is irrelevant to the deal being a House Democrat in the minority. The action will be with Senate Democrats and House Republicans. Or perhaps the action will be with moderates of both parties.

Before a deal is cut, expect Liberal Democrats (like Nancy P) and conservative Rebublicans to scream bloody murder. That's when you will know they are close to a deal.
 
Maybe someone who is smarter than me please help me with this question, as I can't get my arms wrapped around the whole budget. We are overspending currently approx. 30% of our yearly government revenues. However, none of this overspending is caused CURRENTLY by Medicare or SS. I know long term there is a problem, but shouldn't it be first things first, and cut the current overspending problems before, the other 2 programs are pared down?


Actually SS and medicare is part of the overspending... the total dollars spent on these two items continue to rise every year...

The reason that you might think it is not a current problem is they say that we had a surplus in the SS fund and it will be so for many years to come... that does not mean that it is not part of the current problem...


Also, one of the other reasons we are running such a huge deficiet is that revenue has dropped a LOT because the number of people paying taxes has dropped.... if we get everybody back to work the amount of revenue of the gvmt will go up... however, the SS & medicare increases going forward will be more than the new revenue...

Not to say there is not other things that can be cut... but to get to balance RIGHT NOW you would have to cut SS & medicare RIGHT NOW... nobody is suggesting that that I know of....
 
Before a deal is cut, expect Liberal Democrats (like Nancy P) and conservative Rebublicans to scream bloody murder.
+1 You can feel a deal on the way. Legal pundits are all over the air with the 14th Amendment option and it is clear that in an impasse Obama would have to invoke it. Neither side really wants to go that route. Obama because of possible backlash, GOP the same because they wouldn't get their cuts. And, if we do go that route, we are just back to the standard Government shutdown scenario since we wouldn't have a budget deal. What a mess. August break time is coming up and everybody is getting tired. Time for some sort of grand deal that both sides can rant against in part and claim credit for in part should emerge.
 
I can't be fussed to click on this link. Are you saying not to worry about SS and Medicare cuts?

A quote or comment on a "naked link" would be useful.
A bit hard for me to imagine what you might need beyond that which you quoted, but sorry for the offense.
 
A bit hard for me to imagine what you might need beyond that which you quoted, but sorry for the offense.

No offense, I just like to encourage members to follow the ER Community rules. :)

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Texas Proud said:
Actually SS and medicare is part of the overspending... the total dollars spent on these two items continue to rise every year...

The reason that you might think it is not a current problem is they say that we had a surplus in the SS fund and it will be so for many years to come... that does not mean that it is not part of the current problem...

Also, one of the other reasons we are running such a huge deficiet is that revenue has dropped a LOT because the number of people paying taxes has dropped.... if we get everybody back to work the amount of revenue of the gvmt will go up... however, the SS & medicare increases going forward will be more than the new revenue...

Not to say there is not other things that can be cut... but to get to balance RIGHT NOW you would have to cut SS & medicare RIGHT NOW... nobody is suggesting that that I know of....

Thanks for response Texas, and please give more feedback. But if I understand what I am reading, SS even at this point in time is still bringing in more money than is being sent out in payments, with Medicare on the edge. I realize the 2 trillion in SS reserves owed to the system because the govt "borrowed it" will not be there. So if it is still cash flow positive, shouldn't the short term focus be on whacking other programs that have exploded the last 5-10 years? I assume Medicaid is one that has ballooned but nothing much is mentioned about it. I also realize long term those two will crush us financially. That is very true in what you said about total revenues down from recession, but what I have read the expenditures have exploded more.
 
My expectation from before I even went to college was that there would be no SS or Medicare by the time I retired. My plan is to hit retirement assets that support me in the lifestyle I want without either of those, and if they are available as well I'll be living the high life instead of a comfortable one. :)
 
Having read the posts above, I am going to plan a 25% reduction in my SS benefits. I am turning 46 this year, planning to retire at 47... Many years to go before getting any SS benefit.
 
Haven't a clue on the liklihood of real reform coming out of these negotiations.

But when changes are made I can't imagine there will be means testing other than through a) overall tax policy and b) changing FICA caps and payout ratios.

The ability to activily "means-test" retirees would be a administrative nightmare. Moreover, how do you adminster a policy where in any given year people could fall in and out of the system based on income or net worth?

Would be a nightmare and subject to massive manipulation by the citizenry...
 
It's all about confidence and attitude. Maybe if the government stopped paying with checks and credit cards and went to cash payments. and used these instead of twenties:

oeRr7.jpg


Even in death, Billy will not leave us alone...
 
I can't be fussed to click on this link. Are you saying not to worry about SS and Medicare cuts?

A quote or comment on a "naked link" would be useful.
How's this?
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) says Democrats will not support any entitlement benefit cuts as part of a deficit reduction package. "We do not support cuts in benefits to Social Security or Medicare," she said after today's meeting at the White House.
Two comments:
1. Fear mongering. Some "unnamed officials" say that some "unspecified cuts" to Social Security may be necessary. Seriously?

2. If Social Security is a single point of failure in an early-retirement plan, then the plan is not adequately capitalized.

Bonus comment: There's plenty of tinkering room to Social Security through means testing (taxation of benefits) and "improving" the COLA calculation. The real program to be concerned about is Medicare.

I agree with Nords and would say that after reading almost 60 comments, this is a fact free discussion.

I don't think it is new news. Who on this forum is not expecting SS cuts and planning for them?
I'm not planning on cuts - but only because I'm also not planning on collecting any SS, although I do hope it continues to cover my basic Medicare premium.

FWIW, however, the greatest benefit (decreasing the net future liability) to SS without bending the PIA or raising the salary ceiling would be slowing the average wage index, followed by slowing the benefit indexation. The latter is reported to be in discussions right now.


 
Thanks for response Texas, and please give more feedback. But if I understand what I am reading, SS even at this point in time is still bringing in more money than is being sent out in payments, with Medicare on the edge. I realize the 2 trillion in SS reserves owed to the system because the govt "borrowed it" will not be there. So if it is still cash flow positive, shouldn't the short term focus be on whacking other programs that have exploded the last 5-10 years?
The debt problem is not an immediate problem it is a long term problem. In fact many economists think immedediate curtailments in spending will be counterproductive, possibly pushing us into a double dip. On the other hand, other economists think immediate curtailments will instill confidence. In either case, it isn't important to "whack" a bunch of current programs since they are a drop in the bucket compared to SSA and Medicare/Medicaid.
 
I was just notified by SSA that I was approved for the so-called claim now, claim more later SS provision. In the following paper it says that this provision alone will cost SSA about 10 Billion bucks when boomers catch on to it's availability.

http://www.womoney.com/Articles/STRANGEBUTTRUECLAIMSOCIAL.pdf

I'm glad that I was approved, but I can see that provisions like this may be trimmed in the future as I doubt that it was intiially supposed to be like this.
 
donheff said:
The debt problem is not an immediate problem it is a long term problem. In fact many economists think immedediate curtailments in spending will be counterproductive, possibly pushing us into a double dip. On the other hand, other economists think immediate curtailments will instill confidence. In either case, it isn't important to "whack" a bunch of current programs since they are a drop in the bucket compared to SSA and Medicare/Medicaid.

Donheff, thanks that clarifies the reasoning behind it for me.
 
Sorry for taking this in a political direction I saw the subject and assumed it was in the political forum. So, I agree, lets forget the whys and focus on the what nexts -- at least in this forum ;)

I am sorry, too.

For me and my early ER, my biggest challenge is getting from now (I am 48) to age 60 when the first of my reinforcements begins. Those reinforcements include unfettered access to my IRA, then SS and my forzen company pension. And this is in addition to the income I am already receiving from my taxable account to cover my current expenses.

Another indirect reinforcement is Medicare eligibility which may or may not be better than what I have today or in the near future with Obamacare. At least Medicare will provide me with broader coverage than I have today, a good thing especially if my health is not as good as it is now. I could see my Medicare premium go up which would not shock me, but it would still be cheaper than buying an equivalent individual HI policy.

If the SS benefit formula is changed to reduce monthly benefits (i.e. price indexing), then my benefits would decrease. If the SS benefits become fully taxable, then my tax bill would increase slightly. If the FRA is increased, then I would either have to wait longer to collect full benefits or see a reduction if I took them at the same time. If the SS benefit formula were changed so that more years got averaged in the PIA calculation, then my SS monthly benefit would decrease because more zeroes would be averaged into it.

However, if the SS payroll tax is increased, either through the cap or the rate, then I would not be affected because I have not paid any SS taxes since 2008. If the Medicare payroll tax were extended to unearned income, then I would see a slight increase in my tax bill.

So overall, I don't see SS or Medicare changes hurting me all that much.
 
Is this a multiple choice question? :)



Hell, it doesn't even look like we can get them to pay taxes on it.

Good one, you made me laugh:LOL: big 10-4 on the not paying taxes, seems like that should be a no brainer to change, except in DC.
 
During my planning years I always included projected SS income but I never included it as an income stream to cover the essential expenses I was estimating in ER. (The FIDO retirement planning software has discretionary and non-discretionary expenses and nice charts).

I expect to receive SS when I'm eligible and if it is reduced then it shouldn't cause any hardship to me.
 
Master,
I get "page not found" on your Simpson-Bowles link. I looked for info on their income brackets a couple of months ago, but couldn't find that either. I'd really like to check out that info.
 
Haven't a clue on the liklihood of real reform coming out of these negotiations.

But when changes are made I can't imagine there will be means testing other than through a) overall tax policy and b) changing FICA caps and payout ratios.

The ability to activily "means-test" retirees would be a administrative nightmare. Moreover, how do you adminster a policy where in any given year people could fall in and out of the system based on income or net worth?

Would be a nightmare and subject to massive manipulation by the citizenry...

Well, it seems it might be a nightmare, until you realize that Medicare Part B premium amounts are already means tested by annual income. And also the SS provision that allows recipients under 70 a maximum amount of income from work per year. I assume both of these income values are taken from tax returns. The SSA likely has a way of getting this info from the IRS, without much human labor involved. It's reasonable to believe that any future means tested provisions of SS would follow the same income verification procedures already in place.

As for manipulation, working the system will always be a factor for any government program involving personal enrichment. Be it questionable food stamp claims for the poor, or income tax deduction maneuvering for the wealthy.
 
But when changes are made I can't imagine there will be means testing other than through a) overall tax policy and b) changing FICA caps and payout ratios.

You're making it sound like tax policy and changing the FICA caps aren't methods of means testing. They are. Those techniques are not quite as "in your face" as the means testing involved in, say, qualifying for Medicaid. But they're means testing just the same.
 
As for manipulation, working the system will always be a factor for any government program involving personal enrichment.

Ain't dat da truth!
 
You're making it sound like tax policy and changing the FICA caps aren't methods of means testing. They are. Those techniques are not quite as "in your face" as the means testing involved in, say, qualifying for Medicaid. But they're means testing just the same.


Not at all (I said "other than", which was not meant to diminish the point). It was meant to qualify that I do not see a more encompassing "asset test" to determine "means".

Edit: Which if I'm right will benefit those with net worth over those with pensions.
 
Social Security Disability

I know a few people who receive substanial disability pensions (tax free) and receive ss disability for themselves & their kids. The husband or wife is also working. Why do they collect SS Disability. This should be means tested.
 
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