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View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!) 18 11.11%
6500 20 12.35%
6250 10 6.17%
6000 29 17.90%
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?) 85 52.47%
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-03-2009, 01:23 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia View Post
Which means that your investment decisions are probably made with a more open mind than those of us (like me) who "know"...!

My "gut" tells me we've a sickening drop ahead still, but all that means is I'm deer in the headlights (i.e. I'm scared to deploy the cash I've got on the sidelines, waiting for Godot the Bottom.) Interesting to see where the market opens tomorrow, after this FASB mark-to-market thing settles.

Dow futures are down at 7945 even as we speak.
Mostly Im frozen with fear and just keep buying. Sticking to my AA. For all I know what Im doing is completely wrong. Only the future will answer that question.
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Old 04-03-2009, 02:25 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia View Post
My "gut" tells me we've a sickening drop ahead still, but all that means is I'm deer in the headlights (i.e. I'm scared to deploy the cash I've got on the sidelines, waiting for Godot the Bottom.) Interesting to see where the market opens tomorrow, after this FASB mark-to-market thing settles.
That's about right. The market of the last 18 months has pretty much busted my original FIRE plans, but now that it's happened, pulling out pretty much guarantees they remain busted. So my decision is to just let what's still invested ride and hope for the best.
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Old 04-03-2009, 02:31 PM   #143
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There a boatload of money on the sidelines. No, make that a navy full of boatloads of money. I've heard $2 Trillion and more thrown around as the number, although I'm not sure how one determines what money is on the sideline and what money is just outside the market.

I keep going back to the technicians way of looking at things - why not, nothing else makes sense and I don't know anything about reading the entrails of chickens - to try and get some tiny bit of clarity here. My latest voodoo technical interest is Fibonacci retracement.

Note that I'm not espousing the theory, just tossing it out for discussion.

Anyway, current discussions and prognostications I follow elsewhere have discussed the potential for a Fibonacci retracement upward from 700-ish on the S&P, or, if it breaks that level going down, then from around 650. We're talking a quick, violent, and pretty massive upside - not back to where we were but close - 30% being the minimum. But it's generally seen as something that won't stick around for long.

And that last little bit is the one that has me wondering if this thing we're in right now might not have a bigger downside. Something like 1929 - 32 in which the market goes down about 50% (sound familiar?), then has a rally in which significant retracement takes place, followed by several years of a continual slide that goes past the previous low. Far enough past the previous low to make one fondly recall the days when we were down by only 50%.

I can deal with where we're at now. Don't like it - but I can deal. And I can handle a lengthy "L" shape on the recovery with an eventual, if very gradual, clawback upward. Like everyone else I've lost ground, years worth of it, but I'm still okay here and even a little lower. But the prospect of something like 1930-1936-ish is disturbing. '29 was bad, but the stuff that came later was worse.
You posted your prediction on March 3rd. Your technical analysis appears to be accurate at this point in time. Interesting to see what's next.
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Old 04-04-2009, 10:49 AM   #144
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There's this (and a Grain of Salt):

6 reasons I'm calling a bottom and a new bull

Quote:
OK, so you're one of millions of investors impatiently waiting on the sidelines, sitting with $2.5 trillion cash under your mattress, waiting for the right moment, that signal screaming: "Bottom's in, start buying!" Yes, it'll go down again, but the bottom's in, thanks to a great March, possibly the third best month since 1950, so it's time to jump back in and buy, buy, buy!
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Old 04-04-2009, 10:54 AM   #145
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That's about right. The market of the last 18 months has pretty much busted my original FIRE plans, but now that it's happened, pulling out pretty much guarantees they remain busted. So my decision is to just let what's still invested ride and hope for the best.
Sure, there will be downs as well as ups, but I am optimistic and hope there will be more ups than downs in the coming year. I am not pulling out either... no way! In fact, I might rebalance pretty soon.
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Old 04-04-2009, 01:17 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
5274 by 9/2/2009. Final bottom for the DOW in 2010 at 2755.
Please provide your analysis or methods to come up with the number and date.
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Old 04-04-2009, 01:23 PM   #147
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.. So my decision is to just let what's still invested ride and hope for the best.
That's the same approach as mine - just let it ride.
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Old 04-04-2009, 01:35 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
Please provide your analysis or methods to come up with the number and date.
Nostradamus.
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Old 04-04-2009, 03:11 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
Please provide your analysis or methods to come up with the number and date.
Ask the Magic Eight Ball a Question
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Old 10-21-2009, 05:44 PM   #150
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At this point faith in the recovery will evaporate and with it the stock market prices as they collapse in the fourth quarter to a new bear market low. The ability of spending a few trillion dollars will come as a process that was able to defer but not prevent the implosion of 50 trillion plus in imploding debt assets. However, for a time I think we will be better...
Placing a stake in the glass ceiling.....
I hereby declare I think the top is in at 10,119.47

We are now here, the 4th quarter from here on out to my perspective is getting positively scary.
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Old 10-21-2009, 06:23 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by RonBoyd View Post
I asked this question..."what is the stock market bottom for 2009"
The responses were
1. No way
2. Outlook not so good
3. No way

Hmmmmmmm...2 out of 3 ain't bad...name that artist!

I'll arbitrarily say...on Dec 31, 2009, the DOW at close of business, will be 9658.
That's a special number for me.
How's that for a WAG? What do I know?
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Old 10-22-2009, 09:55 AM   #152
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That's a special number for me.
I wish you were four days younger.
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Old 11-09-2009, 10:30 AM   #153
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Placing a stake in the glass ceiling.....
I hereby declare I think the top is in at 10,119.47

We are now here, the 4th quarter from here on out to my perspective is getting positively scary.
RM, I know most of the time you're right on the money. I for one am very glad the Dow just went above your #.
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Old 11-09-2009, 02:34 PM   #154
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I think I voted for 6000. How wrong!! (unless it shots down at the end of the year....)
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