Stocks jump on strong jobs report for January

[W2R]

I'm just a little Voyager but would love to catch a ride on that Flagship one day.

Me too, but hope springs eternal (especially when the market acts like this!)

 

[ejman]

I'll take a modest bow and claim responsibility for today's market action. You see, the market uptrend recently caused my equity allocation to exceed my 10% "wiggle" band and YESTERDAY was the day I rebalanced! I'll try to announce beforehand when I'm contemplating such an action in the future.

 

[Helen]

I'll take a modest bow and claim responsibility for today's market action. You see, the market uptrend recently caused my equity allocation to exceed my 10% "wiggle" band and YESTERDAY was the day I rebalanced! I'll try to announce beforehand when I'm contemplating such an action in the future.

Thank you, it was very much appreciated!

 

[heirloom]

This was a fun week for the mkt. I almost took some profits, but got a litttle greedy and talked myself into waiting until next week.

I even purchased some RSH when it plummeted to 7.20. Hubby looked it up and said they're not earning anything!! I said "I know, but the market is very forgiving and it will be back up in a couple months. I purchased some LCC and DAL when they were down last year and I am having a good time watching them climb.

KEEP ON CLIMBING!!

 

[Hamlet]

Why not?

The S&P was at an all-time high in 1980.

Twenty years later it was ten times as high again.

By its very nature a bull market makes new highs.

Having a major index hit an 11 year high does not make me think a bull market is starting.

 

[NW-Bound]

Only the NASDAQ has surpassed its 2007 high. The Dow and the S&P still have a bit more to go.

 

[MichaelB]

Me too, but hope springs eternal

so does herpes...

Oil prices. And all the saber-rattling over Iran, which... well, oil prices.

As long as oil prices spike on any sign of economic strength, there will be a limit to the legs the recovery will have.

+1

What I want to know is, how could Phil predict 6 more weeks of winter when winter never even arrived for many of us?

Does Phil mean 6 more weeks of winter or 6 more weeks of the the same weather we currently have?

 

[okapi]

Sounds good.Unemployment down,stocks at 52 week highs.Go all stock.Oh wait.Labor force participation lowest since 1981 as 1.2 million more drop out of labor force.Will new jobs pay the same and help tax base.Better go all cash.But wait...uhhh.. Yes I am very glad market is up,but I have to tune out the noise.Because I will drive myself nuts and screw up my portfolio.Best wishes to all.Cheers.

 

[MichaelB]

Sounds good.Unemployment down,stocks at 52 week highs.Go all stock.Oh wait.Labor force participation lowest since 1981 as 1.2 million more drop out of labor force.Will new jobs pay the same and help tax base.Better go all cash.But wait...uhhh.. Yes I am very glad market is up,but I have to tune out the noise.Because I will drive myself nuts and screw up my portfolio.Best wishes to all.Cheers.

The jobs report was good, and a definite improvement over recent reports. It does not mean the economy is in great shape but it does mean the trend is improving. I thought the increase in manufacturing and construction jobs was a very positive aspect because they have been missing over the past year.

 

[Aiming_4_55]

The employment in my state (under 6% unemployment rate I believe) and career field is good. Alot of recruiter calls the last few weeks. The pay is a little lower than prior years, so they haven't made me think much about leaving my current job. (Plus I've only been in my job for 5 months, but it is a PITA.)

 

[TromboneAl]

I'm afraid to look to see what happens today. OK, here I go, be right back.

...

Oops, it's Saturday -- who knew?

 

[GrayHare]

+1
Having a major index hit an 11 year high does not make me think a bull market is starting.

Don't forget US market index values are essentially denominated in dollars, hence what appears to be a new high might only reflect inflation.

 

[nwsteve]

Sounds good.Unemployment down,stocks at 52 week highs.Go all stock.Oh wait.Labor force participation lowest since 1981 as 1.2 million more drop out of labor force.Will new jobs pay the same and help tax base.Better go all cash.But wait...uhhh.. Yes I am very glad market is up,but I have to tune out the noise.Because I will drive myself nuts and screw up my portfolio.Best wishes to all.Cheers.

For a bit more context on the unemployment number, consider: "the participation rate in the workforce has dropped from 64.2 a year ago to 63.7% of the civilian population. Since the unemployment rate is based only on the labor force cohort the distortion isn't readily apparent.

But, if you take one half of one percent - the difference year-on-year in rates) and multiply that times the population (for rounding, call it 300 million people in America) that means about 1.5 million people no longer count.

Since they not longer have unemployment benefits, they can't be unemployed, goes the logic. And since they don't have jobs, they must not be part of the labor force...although they are still in the civilian nose count..."
(source: Peoplenomics-02.4.12).
There are actually 11.3+/- Million folks FEWER participating in the workforce than 9 years ago.

So while lower is better than higher, the actual number is not necessarily representing the harbinger of a boom just ahead.

Nwsteve

 

[MichaelB]

The BLS implemented a change in methodology that make comparisons with previous periods a bit difficult. See a good analysis here (Calculated Risk) that shows the participation rate did not really fall as some media reports suggest. This was explained by the BLS when they released the data.

 

[ERD50]

It's a tough number to measure, I don't envy those in charge of reporting. While I'm not really into any 'conspiracy theories' on the number being manipulated, I do think it is tough to know just what it really means.

Whenever a report like this comes out, I let the market reaction be my guide. I figure the data was probably pretty reasonably digested by 'the market'. Since the market went up, I'll take it as a positive overall for the economy. I would think positive job numbers should show up in savings and spending rates, and other measures (late payment rates, mort default rates, etc). I think those numbers will tell the real story, after all the plus/minus/offsets/fudges required in the jobs report.

-ERD50

 

[ripper1]

While we all probably know the game is rigged it is nice to see it pop like this. In fact it is the only thing long term that will give most of us a chance for a long and secure retirement. You can't rely on savings in a bank for that is surely a losers game.

 

[Free To Canoe]

W_ _ _ _ _!

 

[W2R]

W_ _ _ _ _!

All the way home!

It should be interesting to see what happens on Monday.

 

[Nords]

"Wh - - - " oh, OK, I won't say it (yet).
But maybe a little solitary dancer....

#$%^(*& it, W2R, at least have the fiduciary decency to make these inflammatory remarks while the markets are still open for liquidating all our positions, going 100% cash, and shorting S&P500 futures on margin!

A couple months ago I sold a call option that was 10% out of the money. Now it's nearly 10% in the money. I'm pretty sure the only reason I haven't been exercised is because the options day-traders are passing my contract around like a hot potato...

 

[W2R]

#$%^(*& it, W2R, at least have the fiduciary decency to make these inflammatory remarks while the markets are still open for liquidating all our positions, going 100% cash, and shorting S&P500 futures on margin!

A couple months ago I sold a call option that was 10% out of the money. Now it's nearly 10% in the money. I'm pretty sure the only reason I haven't been exercised is because the options day-traders are passing my contract around like a hot potato...

But the NYSE *WAS* open when I said that! It was only 1:47 PM Eastern Time on Friday. I was actually a little scared to post it, thinking that the market might drop precipitously right before closing. You just have to be on the ball when you read the ER Forum, that's all there is to it.

 

[nwsteve]

The BLS implemented a change in methodology that make comparisons with previous periods a bit difficult. See a good analysis here (Calculated Risk) that shows the participation rate did not really fall as some media reports suggest. This was explained by the BLS when they released the data.

Michael,
Wish I had read John Mauldin's letter this week before posting. Your comment is, of course, accurate. John M's letter reveals even more extensive statistical acrobatics that the BLS does including extensive revisions to prior periods. See Who Took My Easy Button? - Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter - John Mauldin

The above blog posting also include some sobering perspective on health care economics and it sorry condition.
Nwsteve

 

[Nords]

But the NYSE *WAS* open when I said that! It was only 1:47 PM Eastern Time on Friday.

Good point!

I'm going to have to have the ER board send me an e-mail every time you post a word beginning with the letters "wh"...

 

[brewer12345]

While we all probably know the game is rigged

News to me that this is the case. Would you care to explain exactly how this is done?

 

[W2R]

Good point!

I'm going to have to have the ER board send me an e-mail every time you post a word beginning with the letters "wh"...

I'll try to be obligingly vague in my posts, then, and avoid "who, what, when, where, why", not to mention "wheat, wheel, whine, whimper, whiff, whiskey, whistle, whimper, white, whole, while".

 

[MichaelB]

I'll try to be obligingly vague in my posts, then, and avoid "who, what, when, where, why", not to mention "wheat, wheel, whine, whimper, whiff, whiskey, whistle, whimper, white, whole, while".

Whatever